Havana, Jan. 3, 2026 — The United States’ military intervention in Venezuela and the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro have raised fresh fears in Havana that Cuba could become the next target of Washington’s regime-change agenda.
Analysts say the developments are particularly alarming for the Cuban government given the role of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the first Cuban-American to hold the position and a long-time advocate of political change in both Caracas and Havana.
“For the Cuban government, the situation in Venezuela is deeply worrying,” said Ed Augustin, a British journalist based in Cuba. “Marco Rubio has long viewed regime change in Caracas as a means to an end — that end being regime change in Havana.”
Speaking to Al Jazeera from the Cuban capital, Augustin said the US operation in Venezuela signals a broader strategic shift in Washington’s approach to Latin America.
Energy Dependence and Humanitarian Risks
Cuba’s concern is compounded by its continued dependence on Venezuelan oil, a critical lifeline for the island’s fragile economy.
“Cuba has been subjected to the longest sanctions regime in modern history — over 65 years — and those sanctions have been significantly tightened in recent years, particularly under Donald Trump,” Augustin said.
While Cuban imports of Venezuelan crude have declined from roughly 100,000 barrels per day a decade ago, the country still receives an estimated 30,000 barrels daily — a volume analysts say remains vital to keeping Cuba’s energy grid functioning.
“Cuba’s energy matrix is overwhelmingly dependent on petroleum,” Augustin explained. “Any disruption to Venezuelan supply directly translates into a humanitarian cost, especially for the most vulnerable segments of Cuban society.”
Rolling blackouts, fuel shortages, and strained public services have already intensified hardship on the island, raising fears that further regional instability could deepen Cuba’s crisis.
Rubio’s Warning and Trump’s Signals
Following US air strikes on Venezuela, Secretary of State Rubio said the Cuban government should be “concerned” by Washington’s actions — a remark widely interpreted in Havana as a direct warning.
President Donald Trump has also hinted that Cuba could feature in future US regional policy discussions, suggesting that Washington’s focus may extend beyond Venezuela amid escalating tensions across Latin America.
Earlier this week, Trump indicated that Cuba could become part of broader negotiations and security considerations following what his administration described as a decisive intervention in Venezuela.
Regional Implications
Observers warn that any move against Cuba would mark a dramatic escalation in US involvement in Latin America, potentially destabilising the region and provoking strong international backlash.
Critics argue that Washington’s actions risk reviving Cold War-era interventionism, while supporters within the Trump administration frame them as necessary steps to dismantle what they describe as authoritarian networks in the hemisphere.
For now, Cuban officials have not issued a formal response to Rubio’s remarks, but the government is reportedly monitoring developments closely as uncertainty spreads across the region.
Naija247news Staff ✔
Godwin Okafor is the Publisher & CEO of Naija247news Media Group LLC, an independent investigative news platform delivering accurate, data-driven reporting on Nigerian and global politics, economy, finance, and business. Founded in October 2010, Naija247news specializes in developmental journalism, providing timely insights and analysis to readers across Nigeria and the diaspora.
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