Home Blog

5 socio-economic challenges Nigeria would face if Tinubu’s chaired ECOWAS invades Niger.

ECOWAS authorities have resolved to intervene militarily in the Niger coup crisis to restore democracy and reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum. The decision was made following unsuccessful diplomatic talks with the coup leaders during an emergency meeting in Abuja on August 10, 2023.

Niger’s allies, Mali and Burkina Faso, have declared that any ECOWAS military intervention would be seen as a declaration of war against them.

Should ECOWAS send troops to Niger, Nigeria could face five major challenges:

1. Refugee crisis: Nigeria’s porous border would likely lead to an influx of refugees and displaced persons from Niger, particularly in border states like Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno.

2. Casualties: Multi-country conflicts tend to result in civilian deaths, as seen in Nigeria’s experience leading ECOMOG troops in Liberia in 1990.

3. Arms proliferation: Wars leave behind arms proliferation, contributing to future crises. Nigeria already struggles with arms smuggled through its borders, leading to increased banditry and insurgency.

4. Increase in terrorism: Heightened arms availability could escalate violent crimes, worsening Nigeria’s existing issues with terrorism and banditry.

5. Economic impact: ECOWAS sanctions against Niger have already affected local businesses in Nigerian border states, causing price increases for food and goods. If diplomacy fails, the economic strain could intensify further.

Nigeria’s Economic Growth Potential in Positive Trajectory as Non-Oil Sector Gains

0

This week, we explore the latest domestic output data which showed that Nigeria’s economy is on a growth trajectory for another quarter as the gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3.52% to N21.04 trillion in Q4’22, slightly weaker than the 3.98% delivered in the corresponding perio d of 2021 and higher by 1.27 percentage points from the 2.25% in the third quarter.

This brings the overall growth level down to 3.1% from the 3.4% delivered in 2021. This is according to the GDP report published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) .

Marking the ninth consecutive quarters of
positive growth, our expectation had been for a
modest 2.0% growth in Q4 full-year growth of 2.9%, but the outperformance relative to our forecast was mainly because of a robust
growth of 5.69% in the services sector, which
contributed 56.27% to the aggregate GDP.

Although the agriculture sector grew
by 2.05% in Q4’22, its performance was significantly fraught by severe incidences of flooding experienced across the country, accounting for lesser growth relative to the fourth quarter of 2021, which was 3.58%; then, the industry sector saw a retarded growth of 0.94%, contributing less to the total output as against the last quarter (-8.0%) and Q4’21 (-0.05%).

On the sectoral performance of the oil and non-oil sectors, it continues to be a major growth driver in line with broad expectations, as it delivered real growth of 4.44% in the quarter and was probably underpinned by an increase in consumer spending during the holiday season.

This growth was lower by 0.29% percentage points relative to the Q4’21 figures and 0.18% percentage points higher than the prior quarter’s growth.

This growth was spurred by the telecommunications (11.24%); trade (4.54%); crop production (2.41%); financial institutions (12.41%); food, beverage, and tobacco (4.94%); real estate (2.78%); and construction (3.80%) sectors.

In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 95.66% to Nigeria’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022, higher than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021 (94.81%) and higher than the third quarter of 2022, which delivered 94.34%. Moreover, on aggregate, 94.33% was contributed by the sector in 2022, higher than the 92.76% reported in 2021.

On the other hand, for the oil sector, growth in real terms shrank by -13.38% year on year in the final quarter of 2022 and signals a decrease of 5.33% points compared to the same period of2021,butrose9.29%pointsasagainst-22.67%inQ3’22.

Thisshowsamarginalbutsignificantimprovement as the nation’s oil output stood at an average of 1.34 million daily barrels, up 0.14 million barrels from 1.20 million barrels in Q3’22.

However, the figure is lower (0.16 mbpd) than the average daily oil production of 1.50 million barrels per day in the same quarter of 2021.
On a yearly basis, real growth stood at -19.22% as against the -8.30% recorded in 2021.

However, the oil sector contributed 4.34% to the total real GDP in Q4 2022, down from the figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2021 and the preceding quarter (Q3’22), where it contributed 5.19% and 5.66%, respectively.

The total annual contribution of oil to aggregate GDP in 2022 was 5.67%.

In 2022, growth momentum saw a knock to print below the 2021 overall average as weak macro fundamentals emanating from the effects of geopolitical (Russia-Ukraine) unrest, expanding inflation, other environmental factors such as floods, and intensified monetary policy tightening by the central bank took centre stage.

Amidst these drags, Nigeria needs to achieve GDP growth of over 6% to achieve more inclusive growth and move closer to its long-run GDP potential.

For Cowry Research, we forecast year 2023 growth of 3.74%, revised from our earlier projection of 2.9%, as base effects taper off.

2023: Nigeria’s top candidates’ targets naira devaluation

0

The uncertainty around who wins the forthcoming presidential vote in Nigeria is not essentially different from the one around whether any of the top three contenders have definite, elaborate plans to fix the country’s problematic foreign exchange system.

As their manifestos show, the plans of the All Progressive Congress (APC), the Labour Party (LP) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for foreign exchange management are at best a muddle of promises with no clear roadmap to achieve them.

Africa’s biggest democracy will be choosing a new leader on 25 February. Last year, its currency ranked among the world’s worst-performing, outdoing only Ghana’s cedi and Sri Lanka’s rupee.

Naira’s black market rate, the basis of that verdict, had fallen by 37 per cent as of that date compared to only 4 per cent for the official rate.

The parallel market is the most accessible market in the country for those seeking forex, even though the government has labelled it “illegal”. It offers the most market-driven rate, meeting the dollar needs of several manufacturers and users unable to access the currency at the spot market.

The value of the naira is increasingly being eroded, as its official rate lost more than half its value against the dollar since President Muhammadu Buhari took office in 2015.

International investors held only 16 per cent of the shares listed on the Nigerian Exchange in 2022, down from 58 per cent in 2014, a signal that the dollar flow into the market is fast drying up.

“No investor’s going to want to buy into a market where you can’t sell stock and get your money out,” Steve Pollicino of U.S. brokerage Auerbach Grayson told Reuters.

TEXEM Advert
The news agency said Mr Pollicino believes overhauling the Nigerian foreign exchange market is the foremost worry of international investors. One big ramification of the crunch is the ordeal it creates for manufacturers wanting to import raw materials but can’t access the greenback at the I&E Forex Window.

The dollar exchanged for N461.67 at that market and, according to parallel market rates tracker @naira.rates, N746.71 on the street on 14 February, leaving a 61.7 per cent spread, a gulf that has been a key driver of inflation.

Whoever wins the next election will have exchange rate volatility to grapple with as much as a dollar crunch that is stoking the price levels of imported goods.

That is not to mention the urgency of courting back myriad foreign portfolio investors who have been deserting the stock market in droves since the dollar scarcity came to a head shortly after Covid-19 broke out.

NAHCON State AD NAHCON Tour Operator AD NAHCON Cargo Operator AD
Kogi AD

Bola Tinubu (APC)
APC’s presidential hopeful Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not definite on whether he will adopt a foreign exchange market where the forces of demand and supply drive the movement of exchange rate if voted into power.

APC Presidential aspirant Bola Tinubu at Chatham House (Photo Credit: Tinubu’s Facebook)
APC Presidential aspirant Bola Tinubu at Chatham House (Photo Credit: Tinubu’s Facebook)
Nevertheless, it is safe he will rather sustain the current model whereby the government controls the official forex market known as the I&E Forex Window or spot market.

“The exchange rate influences the costs of imports, competitiveness of exports, and net capital flows among other things. It cannot be ignored nor left to the vagaries of an unrestrained market,” Mr Tinubu’s manifesto says without stating the direction his government will take on this.

Dangote adbanner 728x90_2 (1)
Should the former Lagos State governor opt for a government-controlled currency market, the naira-to-dollar exchange rate of the official market will likely continue to be unreliable, failing to reflect the true picture of the dynamics of the market.

The APC admits in the manifesto that Nigeria’s multiple foreign exchange regime is ineffective and dysfunctional, and acknowledges the implications of that for arbitrage and currency speculation.

“To ensure that exchange rate policy harmonises with our goals of optimal growth and job creation driven by industrial, agricultural and infrastructural expansion, we will work with the Central Bank and the financial sector to carefully review and better optimise the exchange rate regime,” the document says.

No mention is made of the shape the planned collaboration with the central bank and the financial sector will take.

The manifesto says “Our history shows that the oil and gas sector is not the answer to our nation’s economic problems.” Yet it goes on to say that the same sector “must play the lead role in generating the foreign currency revenues needed to help fund the nation’s twin industrialisation and infrastructural drives.”

According to the document, Mr Tinubu plans to cut gas flares in order to boost oil and gas earnings from export to the EU as the Russia-Ukraine rages. He intends to reduce foreign debt and use it as a tool to “protect our exchange rate, guard against inflation and preserve foreign currency reserves.”

The manifesto says “Our administration will engage in extraordinary prudence in contracting debt in foreign currency. Our policy will be such that new foreign currency debt obligations will be linked to projects that generate cash flows from which the debt can be repaid.”

On Import Substitution, Mr Tinubu hopes to wean Nigeria off its dependence on imported goods by discouraging the importation of non-essential products and imposing luxury taxes, higher processing fees and higher tariffs.

He is looking to incentivise foreign investors that establish manufacturing plants in the country by way of rebates and tax credits.

“We shall also enact new policies to exploit the framework provided by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCTA) to further boost domestic manufacturing and production,” the manifesto says.

Peter Obi (Labour Party)
Unlike its APC rival, Peter Obi of the Labour Party is pro-liberalisation of the foreign exchange market and has stated his ambition to “dismantle the opaque multiple exchange rate regime which effectively subsidises a few privileged persons, whilst depriving government of badly needed revenues.”

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi
Great as that sounds, the former Anambra State government did not give the layout of how he will go about this in his manifesto.

“We will also seek a simplification of the exchange rate regime, whilst seeking to also boost the supply side, rather than continuing to concentrate exclusively on demand management,” the manifesto states.

There is no part of the document highlighting the specific actions Mr Obi will take to improve the dollar supply. The two broad and brief ideas mentioned above are the only foreign exchange plans mentioned by Mr Obi throughout the document.

On Import Substitution, Mr Obi came into the warm-up stage of the election, riding on the mantra of moving “Nigeria from consumption to production,” which is number two on his 7-point agenda. He hopes to achieve that by expanding the $440.8 billion economy through “agrarian revolution and export-oriented industrialisation.”

His manifesto says scaling up exports will be achieved by cultivating strong ties between Nigerian and overseas markets for its goods. It will also involve establishing structures including strategic trade and investment missions and in-country trade missions aimed at creating markets for made-in-Nigeria goods.

“We shall embrace political entrepreneurialism to directly lead missions to top Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and leading Global Value Chain headquarters, lobbying and granting them all the necessary incentives to expand their production and manufacturing value chains to our country to link us to the important income-growing and employment-generating global value chains,” the manifesto says.

The Labour Party promised to incentivise companies and industries that take clear action to switch from fossil fuels to clean energy “not only for local consumption but also for export.” Among its agenda is the need to cut steep trade costs resulting from high port, border and road logistics spending, which it recognised as a barrier to a competitive business environment.

“We will apply entrepreneurial governance to dismantle the impediments to free trade and ease of doing business,” the Labour Party said.

Mr Obi also expects to boost quality assurance in a bid to ensure the standards of Nigerian products position it to gain traction in the African Continental Free Trade Area.

“We will incentivize the mid-stream segment of the petroleum sector by facilitating gas processing plants and privately-owned small and medium scale boutique refineries, with a view to reducing importation of refined petroleum products, and eliminating the petrol subsidy regime, which has become a huge burden on the budget,” the manifesto says.

Atiku Abubakar (PDP)
Atiku Abubakar, who oversaw the privatisation of state assets as Nigeria’s vice president in this republic’s first eight years, is known as an advocate of liberalisation and the free market.

Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President and PDP Presidential Candidate for 2023 general elections
Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President and PDP Presidential Candidate for 2023 general elections
His manifesto notes that the PDP will give the market greater freedom in determining prices if voted into power.

“This way we shall eliminate the persistent price distortions occasioned by current interventionist exchange rate management policy. Government intervention, where absolutely necessary, will be done responsibly and judiciously,” the document says.

The manifesto further says “Monetary and fiscal policies shall ensure low inflation rate, stable exchange rate and interest rates that will be supportive of businesses’ quest for credit.” Yet, it is silent on the game plan that will accomplish this.

On Import Substitution, Atiku expects processed goods to constitute 25-40 per cent of total exports, hoping these to include processed agricultural goods, manufactures, gas products and refined petroleum.

The manifesto states that support will be given through the Nigerian Export Promotion Council and Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission.

The PDP candidate hopes to review the efficacy and accessibility of the non-oil export simulation facility and strengthen the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority in setting up special economic zones across the six geopolitical zones.

He also intends to review “import duty on raw materials that are available in the country and on imported machinery for local production.”

The manifesto says there is a plan to cut food imports as a share of total imports to 5-10 per cent from 20 per cent.

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
Rabiu Kwankwaso proposes to address the concerns around achieving a fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy, and free movement of capital.

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
The proposed solutions include adopting a disciplined, managed float exchange rate regime with some level of capital controls.

The former governor of Kano State also suggested finding an exchange rate system that encourages exports, discourages imports, and reduces the need for violent adjustments to stabilize the Naira.

He also proposed that the CBN opt for inflation targeting to achieve single-digit inflation, manage monetary policy rates to achieve this, and focus on its core mandate of managing inflation and financial system stability.

Dangote-led End Malaria Council to help Nigeria save N687 billion in 2022 and N2 trillion by 2030.

0

President Muhammadu Buhari Tuesday in Abuja inaugurated Nigeria End Malaria Council (NEMC), projecting that the successful implementation of the council’s agenda and savings from the estimated economic burden of the disease would save Nigeria about N687 billion in 2022 and N2 trillion by 2030.

The president told the 16-member council headed by the founder and president of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, that beyond improving the quality of life, health and well-being of Nigerians, the concerted strategy to tackle malaria had both public health as well as socio-economic benefits for Nigeria.

‘‘Our inauguration today will therefore ensure that malaria elimination remains a priority on our agenda, with strong political commitment from leaders at all levels.

‘‘Additionally, the End Malaria Council will provide a platform to advocate for more funding to protect and sustain progress made so far by our country, and put us on a pathway to ending malaria for good,’’ the president said.

Expressing concern that the age-long disease had remained a major public health challenge in Nigeria, the president cited the World Health Organisation (WHO) report of 2021, showing that Nigeria alone accounts for 27 per cent of all cases of malaria and 32 per cent of deaths globally.

‘‘Malaria infection can cause severe disease and complication in pregnant women and lead to high rates of miscarriage.

‘‘It is also responsible for a considerable proportion of deaths in infants and young children, with children under 5 years being the most vulnerable group affected. These are reasons we must not relent in fighting malaria.’’

On his choice of Mr Dangote to chair the council, President Buhari explained that it was in recognition of the track record and passion of Africa’s richest man in supporting initiatives on various health issues such as polio and primary health care system strengthening.

He expressed confidence that Dangote would bring his outstanding achievements to help the country achieve its goal of malaria elimination, adding that a group of eminent personalities, who have also made their mark across all walks of life, have been selected to work in the council.

He added that the membership of the council reflects government’s commitment to significantly reducing the malaria burden in Nigeria, to a level where it is no longer a public health issue.

‘‘I have been informed that the End Malaria Council (EMC) has already been established in other African countries, in line with the African Union Assembly Declaration for Establishment of EMCs in Africa.

‘‘EMCs have provided leadership, new funding and innovation to enable these countries stay on track to meet malaria burden reduction targets, and I am optimistic that the setting up of the Nigeria End Malaria Council will do the same for Nigeria.

‘‘I must add that with the additional advocacy and funding the council will bring to the malaria control drive, we can anticipate a reduction in malaria burden that ensures that our children, pregnant women, indeed, all Nigerians are shielded from the disease.

‘‘We must work together to reduce the unnecessary deaths attributable to malaria and ultimately improve the well-being of citizens. I implore the Council to ensure best practices and innovative strategies in achieving its mandate.’’

President Buhari used the occasion to thank the Chairman of the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA), President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya, the Executive Secretary of ALMA, RBM Partnership in Nigeria for their continuous support to the Federal Ministry of Health and the malaria programme, in particular.

He also acknowledged the contributions of the Global Fund, the United States Agency for International Development, the President’s Malaria Initiative, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO, UNICEF, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office, other implementing partners, and the private sector.

In separate remarks, the Minister of Health, Osagie Ehanire, and the Minister of State for Health, Joseph Nkama, said since 2010, Nigeria has been recording a continuous decline in malaria from 42 per cent in 2010, to 27 per cent in 2015 to 23 per cent in 2018.

Quoting figures from the 2010 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey and the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, they attributed the decline to the thorough implementation of the National Malaria Strategic Plan (NMSP).

Both ministers, however, admitted that the funding gap has impacted the implementation of the malaria programmes in Nigeria, adding that the country needs N1.89 trillion to reduce malaria prevalence and mortality by 2025.

Mr Ekumankama said: ‘‘The biggest challenge confronting us, which prevents the elimination of malaria, to ensure a malaria-free nation in the shortest possible time is inadequate finances to fund the NMSP.

‘‘We are currently implementing NMSP of 2021 to 2025, with the intent to achieve a parasitic prevalence of less than 10 per cent and reduce mortality attributable to malaria to less than 50 deaths per 1000 live births by the year 2025. It will take about N1.89 trillion to implement this plan.

READ ALSO: Nigerien President honours Dangote with national award over health interventions
‘‘However, in the first year of its implementation we had an estimated deficit of over N150 billion and in 2022, we already have a deficit of over N170 billion.’’

In his acceptance speech, Mr Dangote thanked the president and all members of the council for entrusting him with the enormous responsibility, pledging to work hard to achieve the mandate.

‘‘I must confess that this resonates with my current role as the Nigerian Ambassador for Malaria, my role on the Global End Malaria Council and with the work that my Foundation is doing to mobilise the private sector to support malaria control in Nigeria and Africa at large,’’ he said.

The council members are: Shehu Ibrahim, Permanent Secretary, Office of the Vice President on Political and Economic Affairs; Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State and Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF); Yahaya Oloriegbe, Chairman, Senate Committee on Health; Abubakar Dahiru, Chairman, House Committee on AIDS, TB and Malaria; Mr Ehanire, Mr Ekumankama; Mahmuda Mamman; Permanent Secretary, Federal Minister of Health.

Others include Tony Elumelu, Chairman, Board of Directors, UBA; Folurunsho Alakija, CEO, Rose of Sharon Group; Herbert Wigwe, CEO, Access Bank; Femi Otedola, CEO Forte Oil; Lami Lau, President, National Council of Women Societies; John Cardinal Onaiyekan, Emeritus Archbishop of Abuja Catholic Archdiocese; Rafiyat Sanni, National Amira, Federation of Muslim Women Nigeria (FOWAN) and Perpetua Uhomoibhi, NEMC Secretariat/National Coordinator, National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP).

Femi Adesina

Special Adviser to the President

(Media & Publicity)

EXCLUSIVE: How Savannah Energy Deceived Investors to acquire ExxonMobil and Petronas’ Multibillion Dollar Assets – Stakeholders

0

The uproar generated by Savannah Energy Plc. planned acquisition of substantial assets of ExxonMobil and Petronas through the back door seems not to be abating yet.

According to industry sources, Savannah Energy had manipulated the handlers of the transaction at a time other Oil and Gas companies were also eyeing the deal.

The fallout of a deal that ought to have been responsibly managed by the company has become messier owing to the deliberate failure to disclose certain crucial developments to the market.

And worse still, the thorny issue has also unsettled stakeholders even as it has generated ripples in the media.

Stakeholders who are privy to the deal had expressed concern that Savannah Energy was not at the initial stage willing to disclose the hitch as required by market regulations.

This attitude, expectedly, irked opponents and industry analysts, who have continued to insist that the non-disclosure of the material information the company has kept to itself, is not only deliberate but grossly fraudulent.

Naija247news gathered that the government of Chad, through its state-owned oil company, Societé des Hydrocarbures du Tchad (SHT), had notified Petronas on January 18, of her decision to exercise her right of first refusal in the deal.

Incidentally, that was not to be as the gimmick, according to informed sources, was designed to favour Savannah Energy.

“So, SHT pretended to be in the process of acquiring control of the substantial shareholding in ExxonMobil and Petronas. Midway, it entered into discussion with Petronas concerning the adaptations to be made to the transfer agreement to reflect the substitution for Savannah Energy as the buyer,” one analyst, who refused his name in print, said.

A tweet sighted by Naija247News had called out the Energy Company insisting that an announcement indicating that “SHT has preempted Petronas transaction since January” should have been made.

”When is SAVE (Savannah Energy) updating the market on this material information?” the tweet inquired.

SHT was said to have initiated the process of taking the necessary steps to raise the financing for the operation. While this was going on, Savannah Energy had remained silent, in what industry analysts called a clearly unethical act, wilfully downplaying the potential impact the collapse of the deal might have on investors, who have made significant decisions based on the announcement made by Savannah Energy in December 2021.

Under article 12 of the association agreement, the members of the consortium had a right of first refusal for 30 days in the event of transfer by another member of its participation in the consortium, in order to carry out the concerned operation (which leads to the transfer of the stake concerned) in place of the initially planned buyer, under the same conditions as those agreed between the parties.

It would be recalled that after months of negotiations and site visits, the British firm and London Stock Exchange-listed company, announced the execution of share purchase agreements (SPAs) worth $626 million with ExxonMobil and Petronas to acquire their oil & gas assets in Cameroon and Chad in December 2021.

As a result of both acquisitions, Savannah Energy was to acquire a combined 75 percent controlling interest in the Doba Oil Project and 70 percent indirect controlling interest in the Chad-Cameroon oil export transportation system. The remaining interests would be reserved for the national oil companies of Chad and Cameroon.

The SHT Petroleum Chad Company will, also, according to the arrangement, hold the remaining 25 percent interest in the Doba oil project, while its affiliates will indirectly own the remaining stake in the transportation system. The Exxon transaction has a value of $360 million, while the deal with Petronas is worth approximately $266 million. However, both transactions are subject to shareholder approval.

Savannah Energy Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Andrew Knott, had said: “These assets have generated billions of dollars of critical tax revenues for their host countries and free cash flow to their owners since the onset of first oil production in 2003.

“Further, under our stewardship, we expect these assets in aggregate to generate positive free cash flow and fiscal revenues for Chad and Cameroon for a further 25+ years. For Savannah, these deals are expected to see our production levels and reserve base more than double.”

Soon after what analysts called the rigmarole, it was reported that the Africa‑focused British Company, was set to acquire ExxonMobil’s and Petronas’ entire upstream and midstream asset portfolios in Chad and Cameroon for a total of $626 million.

The company had reportedly signed share purchase agreements (SPA) with Exxon and Petronas (E&P) overseas ventures to acquire the assets. The move was to further expand Savannah Energy’s operations in Africa.

It had planned to fund the transactions through a combination of debt and equity/equity-linked financing.

Last year, the Doba Oil Project produced an average of 33,700 barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil. The Chad-Cameroon pipeline system transported a gross of 129,200bbl/d of oil in 2020. The deals in Chad and Cameroon, however, were aimed at further increasing Savannah Energy’s footprint in Africa.

Deal-making in the energy sector, according to Reuters, has gathered steam as oil and gas firms trim their portfolios to focus on more profitable assets and transition towards cleaner energy amid uncertainty over future demand for fossil fuels. Savannah, which currently operates only in Nigeria and Niger, said it intends to fund both transactions through a mixture of debt and equity.

The Exxon transaction is for $360 million and involves a 40 percent interest in the Doba Oil Project in southern Chad and about 40 percent indirect stake in the Chad-Cameroon export transportation system, Savannah said. The deal with Malaysia’s Petronas is worth $266 million, with a 35 percent stake buy in the Doba project and about 30 percent indirect holding in the Chad-Cameroon transportation network.

If completed on the currently proposed terms, the Projected Acquisition, sources say, would be classified as a reverse takeover transaction in accordance with the AIM Rule 14. Accordingly, the Company had requested that its ordinary shares be suspended from trading on AIM with immediate effect.

This, according to informed sources, will remain so pending publication of an AIM admission document setting out, inter alia, details of the Proposed Acquisition, or confirmation is provided that discussions around the Proposed Acquisition have been terminated.

Savannah Energy Plc. is an AIM market listed African-focused British independent energy company sustainably developing high-quality, high-potential energy projects in Nigeria and Niger, with a focus on delivering material long-term returns for stakeholders.

In Nigeria, the Company has controlling interests in the cash flow generative Uquo and Stubb Creek oil and gas fields, and the Accugas midstream business in South East Nigeria, which provides gas to over 10 percent of Nigeria’s available power generation capacity.

In Niger, it has interests in two large PSC areas located in the highly oil prolific Agadem Rift Basin of South East Niger, where the Company has made five oil discoveries and seismically identified a large exploration prospect inventory, consisting of 146 exploration targets to be considered for potential future drilling activity.

However, on June 15, in what industry analysts termed a “smart ugly move”, Savannah Energy Plc. announced the full year 2021 Annual Results. In the report, it posited the target completion of entry into Chad and Cameroon in Q3 2022 and further hydrocarbon acquisitions. The company said it would focus on the delivery of projects that matter in Africa, and was pleased to announce its 2021 Audited Accounts and Annual report.

The report specifically announced a proposed place to raise US$65.8 million of equity financing and secured up to US$432 million of debt financing for the proposed Chad and Cameroon Asset Acquisitions. The equity financing, according to the report, would be completed in January 2022.

While reviewing the “fantastic year for Savannah ”, Knott, had said: “We announced our potentially transformational acquisition of a large portfolio of upstream and midstream assets in Chad and Cameroon, which upon completion we now expect will more than double our corporate free cash flow.

“We established a Renewable Energy Division which, post period, has signed agreements for up to 750 MW of large scale greenfield solar and wind projects. We successfully renewed and amalgamated our Niger PSC areas, paving the way for the progression of our intended 35 MMstb R3 East development and a return to exploration activity in the licence areas.

“Our performance against key industry sustainability metrics relating to HSE performance, carbon intensity, senior management gender diversity, and local employee ratios remains industry-leading.”

He added: “Looking forward to the rest of 2022, I am confident in where we are as a business. We expect to deliver on our financial guidance. We expect to complete our entry to Chad and Cameroon during Q3 2022 and likely announce further hydrocarbon acquisitions.

“We expect to further grow our Renewable Energy Division, with several new large-scale Greenfield opportunities under review and negotiation. We expect to finalise the refinancing of our Nigerian debt and to announce the development and exploration plans for our assets in Niger.”

The question now is, if Savannah Energy’s attempt to close this deal to acquire the ExxonMobil and Petronas Assets in Cameroon and Chad has fallen through, why has Savannah Energy failed to announce the new situation to the market with the same gusto it announced the intended acquisitions?

Is Savannah Energy hiding anything? Or was it always a deliberate and calculated ploy to game the market?

Experts reveal How The COVID-19 Coronavirus Kill? What Happens When You Get Infected

0

Suffice it to say that the COVID-19 coronavirus is not a very good guest.

It has been the uninvited guest in over 287,239 humans to date based on reported cases. But the actual number is probably many more than that. It has resulted in a pandemic, which is a bad thing for a guest to do. And the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) has proven that it can kill, having claimed at least 11,921 lives as of today, according to a Johns Hopkins University website. But obviously the virus doesn’t have little teeth or carry teeny-weeny sticks of dynamite. So, what exactly does the virus do once it is in your body and how can it kill?

The SARS-CoV2 is a respiratory virus, meaning that it can enter and invade your respiratory system, the system from your nose to your lungs that allows you to breathe in oxygen and breath out carbon dioxide. There are many other kinds of respiratory viruses such adenoviruses, rhinoviruses, respiratory syncytial viruses (RSV), influenza, and other coronaviruses because your respiratory tract can seem like a wet, warm Walmart for these viruses. Some of these viruses tend to stay in your upper respiratory tract while others may make it down to your lower respiratory tract. Spoiler alert: SARS-CoV2 can do both.

Of note, just because two different types of viruses are both considered respiratory viruses, doesn’t mean that they are the same in other ways. The many viruses that cause the common cold including four other types of coronaviruses (OC43, HKU1, NL63, and 229E) behave very differently from the SARS-CoV2. Similarly, the SARS-CoV2 is not the same as the flu virus. Repeat, they are not the same. If you were to ask whether the flu and COVID-19 were equivalent, the answer would be no times no. As Yoda would say, the same they are not SARS-CoV2 and the influenza virus.

SARS-CoV2 gets into your respiratory tract when you breathe in respiratory droplets that have the virus or smear the virus on your face with your grubby fingers or some other contaminated object. The infection tends to begin inside your nose, you know that place in which you may periodically put your finger. The virus looks a little like either a morning star, one of those spiked medieval weapons, or a spiky massage ball. Note that even though the three of these things look similar don’t ever confuse them and use one for the other. The moment someone want to massage you with a weapon or a coronavirus, leave the spa.

 

Here is a illustration of the virus that’s causing a pandemic:

And for your reference, here is a spiky massage ball, which is not causing a pandemic:

The spikes on the surface of the virus consist of protein. Here’s an example of where protein is not good for you. These protein spikes are the key to the viruses’ ability to invade the cells in your respiratory tract. They help the virus find and bind to ACE2, a protein on the surface of your cells that’s the virus’s ace in the hole, so to speak, to get into your cells. This dirt bag virus then tricks your cell into helping it get inside the cell. It uses an enzyme called furin that is present in your cells to break the protein spikes in half, allowing the spikes to then guide the virus into your cells. How’s that for some political backstabbing?

Once inside your cells, the politics don’t end. This jerk virus hijack your cells’ machinery to make more copies of itself. So not only is the virus in your cells’ uninvited, it is doing the nasty there and using your stuff to do so. What a gross creep.

After these pieces-of-bleep viruses make more and more of themselves, they may invade additional cells lining your respiratory tract and begin to cause damage. They may have been able to get into your cells and knock virus boots for a while before your immune system even recognizes that something was amiss. That’s because your immune system probably has never ever seen anything like SARS-CoV2 before and hasn’t yet had the chance to set up specialized sentries and weapons ready to recognize, catch, and eliminate these filthy viruses. When it comes to SARS-CoV2, your immune system is bit like you were probably like in high school, quite naive and easy to fool, no matter how much energy you had and how many weights you lifted.

Thus, your immune system is likely caught with its virtual pants down, something that may also have happened to you in high school. Your immune system then scrambles to deal with the emergency with no real clear plan specific for SARS-CoV2. It quickly assembles and deploys a bunch of general troops to the lining of your respiratory tract, making it into a battleground.

Your startled immune system may be enough to deal with this douchebag virus if everything remains in your upper respiratory tract, that is above your trachea or windpipe. In such cases, your symptoms will likely resemble those of an upper respiratory tract infection. That is, if you even have any symptoms at all. As I wrote previously for Forbes, a study showed that 17.9% of those infected ended up having no symptoms throughout their infections. Upper respiratory symptoms can include a fever, a sore throat, nasal congestion, or a dry cough. As the World Health Organization (WHO) reported, symptoms begin an average of five to six days after the virus initially infected you with a range of one to 14 days.

You may think, OK, so far, SARS-CoV2 doesn’t sound great but it also doesn’t sound terrible. True, for a large percentage of cases, SARS-CoV2 and its damage remains uptown, north of the trachea. But let’s get down with what can go down when the infection proceeds down your respiratory tract into your respiratory tree and lungs.

Shortness of breath, chest pain or tightness, a deeper cough, and other difficulties breathing can be signs that these sons-of-viruses have made it to your lower respiratory tract. These symptoms can come from inflammation of your respiratory tree, otherwise known as your bronchial tree, the set of pipes that carry the air that you breath in and out of your lungs and allow you to sing Rolling in the Deep.

These sleazeball viruses may not stop at your bronchial tree. At the end of your respiratory tract are a bunch of balloon-like structures. No, not a collection of celebratory balloons to congratulate oxygen for reaching all the way down there. Rather, these are alveoli, which may sound like a pasta dish but instead are membranous structures that fill with the air that you inhale. Here is an illustration of some alveoli:

:

 

As you can see in the picture, alveoli are also intertwined with a network of blood vessels, represented in red and blue. These blood vessels bring blood from the rest of your body that is low in oxygen and high in carbon dioxide, a waste product of metabolism. The alveoli serve as swap markets or little eBays where oxygen from the air that you breathed in is exchanged with the carbon dioxide in your blood. The carbon dioxide goes into the alveoli, where it may be exhaled up through your respiratory tract and out through your nose and mouth. The blood that is newly infused with more oxygen subsequently travels to the rest of your body to provide all of your cells with the oxygen that they need to do stuff like live and help you take selfies of yourself.

You can see how your lungs are so important and should be among your top five favorite organs. When your alveoli don’t work properly, your body can become starved of oxygen and unable to get rid of carbon dioxide. Things can quickly go downhill after that happens.

If the viruses and the resulting battle make it down to your lungs and alveoli, it can become a pneumonia. Pneumonia is when your alveoli become inflamed and get filled up with fluid, pus, and other types of gunk. Gunk is a technical term for cells and other stuff. This can happen in one or both of your lungs, assuming that you have no more than two. Developing a pneumonia is when the infection gets really serious. The word pneumonia should never be followed by no more than “I will just walk it off” or “rude, well that’s annoying.” If you suspect that you have a pneumonia, any kind of pneumonia, contact your doctor immediately.

Of course, unless you have an X-ray machine in your home, you can’t tell for sure if you have a pneumonia. Therefore, be aware of possible symptoms such as a high fever, chills that may be accompanied by shaking, coughing up mucus that’s greenish, yellow, or bloody, chest pain, shortness of breath, and other breathing difficulties. You may also feel tired, have a loss of appetite, and suffer sweating episodes. If you start turning blue or becoming confused, those are signs that you may not be getting enough oxygen through your lungs. Turning blue is never a good sign unless you are a member of Blue Man Group. If you do turn blue, go to the emergency room immediately as opposed to go to the emergency room casually. If you are a member of Blue Man Group, please say something.

When the infection has reached your lungs, your panicked immune system can behave like an adolescent. Sure, your immune system can continue to battle the virus, but it can also be too excitable and thus end up of making matters worse. There can be a lot of, shall we say, premature activation. Your immune system can end up quickly sending more and more troops to the area, cascades of different cells and chemicals, that end up firing all over the place in random directions. This may not even root out the invader and at the same time cause additional damage to the cells in your respiratory tract. As you probably learned in high school, telling someone this frenzied to calm down probably won’t work.

The other problem is that while your immune system is battling this scoundrel virus, other nasty microbes such as bacteria can sneak into your lungs and cause havoc as well. This is analogous to when a bouncer is occupied by an unruly guest and other people are able to sneak into the nightclub. These new invaders then can cause secondary infections that subsequently flourish quickly because your defenses are currently occupied. Such infections can end up being life threatening as well.

As the damage to your lungs continues, you may develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which is when your lungs have suffered so much widespread injury that you start running out of functioning alveoli to do the gas exchange work. The acronym ARDS is easy to remember because it sounds a bit like “argh.” If the damage gets to the point that your lungs can no longer effectively exchange enough oxygen and carbon dioxide, you go into respiratory failure and need a ventilator to help you breathe. In such cases, a ventilator is not an optional thing like dressing on a salad. It is an emergency measure to keep you alive. That’s why doctors are so worried about ventilator shortages right now. When you are in respiratory failure, it’s not as if you can take a number and wait for a ventilator to become available. Being out of ventilators is not the same as being out of stock of Fifty Shades of Grey books or hoodies. People will die without enough ventilators.

Being on a ventilator is still not the worst that can happen. Your immune system, you know that naive adolescent that’s been prematurely randomly firing, can go even more haywire. Real trouble occurs when your immune system begins to send chemicals and cells to not only your lungs but all over your body. The destruction then extends beyond your respiratory tract. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) describes sepsis as “the body’s extreme response to an infection. It is a life-threatening medical emergency.” Your blood pressure starts to drop, your organs starts to fail. This is DEFCON 1 for your body and possibly a point of no return.

Most people with COVID-19 don’t go down this path. According to the Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), approximately 80% of those with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 end up having mild-to-moderate disease. Mild disease tend to last about two weeks.

However, based on this report, a not insignificant 13.8% of those with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 have severe disease. It can take three to six weeks to recover from severe disease, if you even do recover. Deaths, unfortunately, continue to occur.

So what are the chances of death if you have COVID-19? A CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) published on March 18 presented data on the 4,226 COVID-19 cases in the U.S. that had been reported to CDC as of March 16. Of these cases, 2,449 of these patients had a known age: 6% were 85 years or older, 25% were between 65 and 84 years old, 18% between 55 and 64, 18% between 45 and 54, 29% between 20 and 44, and 5% between 0 and 19.

As you can see, the cases have spanned the age groups of the adult population. However, the case fatality rate, which is the percentage of cases who ended up dying, was substantially higher for those 85 years and older with 10% to 27% of them not surviving. This obviously sounds very high, but keep in mind that these were cases that were diagnosed and reported to the CDC. Without more widespread testing, it is still unclear how many cases of COVID-19 had already occurred in the U.S. as of March 16. The case fatality rate for those between ages 65 and 84 was 3% to 11%, lower but still quite significant. The case fatality rate dropped to 1% to 3% for those between 55 and 64 years of age and below 1% for those between 20 and 54 years of age. No one 19 years old and below passed away.

So far, case fatality rates have continued to vary somewhat widely. In a press briefing on March 3, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus had said that “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died.” A study that’s currently under review at the journal Nature Research analyzed publicly available data on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections in mainland China and came up with a 1.4% probability of dying from the infection after developing symptoms. Therefore, more data and studies are necessary to resolve these discrepancies in reported case fatality rates.

Regardless, all of the estimates so far remain far above the case fatality rates for seasonal influenza, which tends to be below 0.1%. This new coronavirus may have some similarities to the flu virus in that it is a respiratory virus and can kill you. But it is not the flu. Second verse same as the first, SARS-CoV2 am not the flu. The flu SARS-CoV2 is not. It is indeed something completely new and very different. And that’s the problem.

Nigeria’s MPC may retain interest rate at 13.5% as Inflation soars on Closure Border, Excess Crude Dip

0

Policy rate: 13.5%
Inflation rate: 11.6% (October)
Excess crude account stood at $324.54 million as of November 20

Nigeria’s central bank is likely keep its rate on hold for a fourth meeting even as inflation jumped to a 17-month high.

That’s as policy makers look for ways to jump-start an economy projected to grow just 2% this year. Governor Godwin Emefiele has said the bank won’t consider cutting rates before inflation slows to the 9% ceiling of the target band.

“The bank is focusing more on growth than inflation and currency at the moment,” said Wahab Mustapha, an analyst with Cordros Securities.

Naija247news.com earlier reported that Annual inflation was 11.61% in October, up from 11.24% in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday — the highest rate since May 2018. Consumer inflation had dropped to it lowest in almost four years in August.

A separate food price index showed inflation at 14.09% in October, compared with 13.51% a month earlier.

“This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of meat, oils and fats, bread and cereals, potatoes, ham and other tubers, fish and vegetables,” the statistics office said in its report. “The rise in food inflation does suggest that border closures may have played a part in temporarily pressuring prices higher,” said Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered.

Shoppers at a market in the capital, Abuja, told Reuters the price of many food items, particularly rice, had risen in the last few weeks.

“Food items are very expensive in the market. When you go to a store they will tell you that is because the border is closed,” said housewife Naomi Nguher, who said she was given this reason for high rice prices at four different shops.

Sherifat Ajala, a rice wholesaler in the commercial capital Lagos, said Nigeria’s bad roads were delaying the transportation of the grain, further preventing the supply from meeting high demand.

“Trucks will spend almost two or three weeks on the road before they bring the rice,” he said.

Last week the West African country, along with neighbouring Benin and Niger, agreed to set up a joint border patrol force to tackle smuggling between the nations after a meeting between their foreign ministers.

The central bank is due to set its benchmark interest rate next Tuesday. The bank, which has targeted single-digit inflation, held its main interest rate at 13.5% at its last meeting, in September.

Earlier in the month a deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), have expressed fears that the persistent fall of Nigeria’s external reserves in recent times may induce exchange rate crisis and trigger capital outflows from the country.

Joseph Nnanna and Robert Asogwa, deputy governor in charge of economic policy and an MPC member respectively, expressed fears in their personal statements at the last meeting of the MPC seen by Naija247news

Nigeria’s excess crude account
Nigeria’s excess crude account stood at $324.54 million as of November 20, the accountant general said on Thursday.
Reviewing the external reserves movement, Nnanna said external reserves had trended downwards in recent months, declining from US$43.971 billion as at July 31, 2019 to US$ 41.79 billion as at September 16, 2019 or by US$ 2.181 billion or 4.9 percent.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has since shown that the reserves shed $2,243,157,059 in October, moving from $44,305,099,104 on the last working day of September to $42,061,942,045 as at October 30, 2018, the largest fall since 2018.

The reserves depreciation reflects weakening oil prices and CBN interventions in the foreign exchange market to ensure exchange rate and price stability.

“Although this stock of reserves could finance over 9 months of 36 imports of goods and services at end July 2019, there is need to watch this level considering that the reserves stock at the end of June 2019 could finance over 12 months imports.

“More importantly, the level of reserves has implications for capital inflows and outflows. A weakened net capital inflows position, due to weakening oil prices and external reserves position is helpful to exchange rate stability or the easing of monetary policy stance.

“This thus suggests the need to avoid monetary policy responses that could worsen the capital flows position and, hence external reserves and exchange rate stability,” Nnanna submitted at the last meeting of the MPC.

Asogwa, in his submission, explained that some considerable pressures still exist as the conditions of external reserves and current account balance seemed to have worsened in between the MPC meetings.

The oil savings account, which holds dollar reserves from sales of crude above the assumed benchmark price, contained $1.92 billion as of June 2018.

“CBN staff report shows that gross external reserves as at end of August 2019 declined by 4.7 percent when compared to the levels at end July and there are expectations of additional declines by the fourth quarter of 2019.

“There are, however, fears that this declining trend in external reserves may affect exchange rate stability in the near future,” he said.

The country’s foreign reserves, which saw a remarkable surge in 2018, following improved oil prices, and hitting $47.8 billion in June, has begun to take a downward turn due to shocks from the US market.

“Given the increase in inflation, we now expect that policymakers will leave their key rate on hold,” John Ashbourne, senior emerging markets economist at London-based Capital Economics, said in a note on Monday.

In 2020, Nigeria Stock Exchange to Launch Equity Index Futures To Boost Investors Confidence

0

By Mahmoud Habboush and Emele Onu

Other products may follow, Lagos exchange CEO Onyema says

Lobbying government to exempt securities trade from tax

The Nigerian Stock Exchange, Africa’s second-largest bourse, plans to introduce trading in financial derivatives next year as it seeks to deepen the market.

“We will launch with equity index futures and then grow the list from there,” Chief Executive Officer Oscar Onyema said in an interview in Abu Dhabi Tuesday. The exchange plans to introduce futures and options to enable investors to hedge and manage risks, he said at the Africa Investment Summit organized by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

Nigeria is seeking to encourage trading in the wake of a 14% slide in its benchmark index this year, the fourth-worst performer among 94 global equity gauges tracked by Bloomberg. While efforts to introduce derivatives in the past were hampered by the lack of a central counter-party clearing house, one has now been set up and the Lagos bourse is seeking a license for it from regulators, Onyema said.

Onyema has long been floating plans to introduce derivatives trading since his appointment in 2011, but has continually delayed its launch.

The Lagos stock exchange is also in talks with regulators to increase the share of pension fund investment into equities, to raise the current allocation to stocks at 4.95%, Onyema said. There are already signs that stocks are starting to “rally a little bit” thanks to an inflow of pension-fund money after the Central Bank of Nigeria tightened restrictions on which investors could trade its high-yielding, short-term, fixed-income debt securities.

The bourse is also lobbying President Muhammadu Buhari’s government to offer tax breaks to companies and exempt securities transactions from value-added tax to boost investment, according to Onyema. Nigeria, which vies with South Africa as the continent’s biggest economy is seeking to expand tax revenue amid a decline in income from crude oil, which contributes the bulk of the nation

Bloomberg

Pension Administration Investors Stash Funds in FGN Bonds as Slow Down on Nigeria Equities in Q3 2019 worsens

0

The National Pension Commission (NPC) recently released its report on pension fund assets for the
third quarter of 2019 showing that the total value of pension assets rose quarter on quarter (q-o-q)
by 2.76% to N9.58 trillion in September 2019 from N9.33 trillion in June 2019.

According to the report, most of the pension fund assets were
invested in FGN securities as its share of the total assets stood at 71.43% (or N6.84 trillion) in
September 2019, from a 69.55% it printed in June 2019.

Also, the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) piled up money in Local Money Market
Securities (LMMS), although its share of the total assets was flattish q-o-q at 11.21% (or N1.07 trillion) in September.

Total invested fund in Corporate Debt Securities as a percentage of total pension fund assets stood at 6.49% (or N0.62 trillion) in September 2019 from 5.42% in June 2019.

However, funds invested in Real Estate Properties as a fraction of the total pension fund assets dropped to 2.42% (or N0.23 trillion) from 2.68% (or N0.25 billion) in the period under review.

Similarly, we saw Cash and Other Assets which constitute 0.28% (or N26.47 billion) of the total pension fund assets in September 2019 declined from 2.30% (or N214.21 billion) in June 2019.

Further breakdown of the N6.84 trillion FGN Securities revealed that investment in FGN Bonds, by the PFAs gulped N4.48 trillion in September 2019, rising from a N4.44 trillion it recorded in June 2019.

Investment in Treasury Bills rose to N2.26 trillion in September 2019, from N1.94 trillion in June 2019; however, investments in Sukuk and Green Bonds were relatively low as their respective shares of allocated pension assets stood at N80.53 billion and N13.38 billion in the quarter under review.

Also, the breakdown of investment in LMMS showed that more pension fund assets were invested in Banks (which include Open Market Operations, OMO, and DMBs fixed deposits) than in commercial papers.

Funds invested in Banks, constituting 88.79% of investment in LMMS, rose to N0.95 trillion in September 2019 from N0.94 trillion in June 2019 while investment in commercial papers, constituting 11.21% of investment in LMMS, increased to N0.12 trillion from N0.11 trillion.

Meanwhile, pension fund assets investment in the domestic equities market moderated to N0.49 trillion in September 2019 from N0.54 trillion in June 2019; thus, reducing the weight of total pension funds in local equities market to 5.13% from 5.76%.

Nevertheless, the equities market received some of “patronage” from “RSA FUND 11” as its share (N0.33 trillion) of the total pension fund investment in equities stood at 61.11% in September 2019.

Nigeria’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index 65.00 62.50 60.00 57.50 55.00 Source: NBS, Cowry Research

Non-Manufacturing Composite PMI
Manufacturing Composite PMI
The increased investment by PFAs in FGN Securities, especially FGN Bonds, was purposely to take advantage of the high yield in the bonds market as at September 2019.

With the benefit of hind sight, it is apparent that pension money managers took the right decision then given the crash in fixed income yields.

Meanwhile, treasury bills across different tenor buckets that matured this week were mostly refinanced at single-digit rates by CBN.

As there will be no T-bills auction in December 2019, we expect the current demand for T-bills to spill over to the bonds market; hence a reduction in bond yields is anticipated for most maturities.

More so, with the recent restriction of OMO transactions to only deposit money banks and foreign portfolio investors as well as the soon retirement of the current N950 billion worth of pension Investment in OMO bills, we expect bonds yields and rates to collapse going forward.

Hence, with the anticipated reduction in yields, we expect returns on pensioners’ funds to moderate in Q4 2019.

Thus, we opine that it is time the PFAs took advantage of the low stock prices and invest more in equities, given the high dividend returns in some selected stocks and the potential capital appreciation they also offer as stock prices have dropped way below their net book values.

DR Congo, M23 Rebel Group Agree to Pursue Peace Framework Following Qatar-Brokered Doha Talks

0

By Naija247news Foreign Desk

DOHA, QATAR – A major diplomatic development unfolded on April 22, 2025, as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the M23 rebel group reached a historic agreement in Doha, Qatar, signaling their intent to work towards a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo. The talks, mediated by the State of Qatar and supported by the United Nations and the African Union (AU), have led both sides to commit to negotiating a ceasefire and addressing the root causes of the violence that has ravaged North Kivu province.

The Doha Talks: A Diplomatic Milestone

The Doha talks, which spanned several days, were initiated as part of a broader international effort to end the M23 insurgency in eastern DRC, an area that has been plagued by violence since 2012. The group, predominantly ethnic Tutsi, first came to prominence during the 2012 M23 rebellion, citing grievances over the treatment of the Tutsi population and the failure of the DRC government to honor previous peace agreements. The group re-emerged in late 2021 and has continued its military offensive, seizing large swathes of territory in North Kivu.

The Qatar-mediated dialogue marked the first time in over a year that direct negotiations were held between the DRC government and M23 leadership. The engagement in Doha comes after previous failed attempts at negotiations, including the Nairobi Process (2022), which failed to establish lasting peace.

What Was Agreed Upon?

The key outcomes of the Doha Peace Agreement include:
1. Commitment to a Ceasefire: Both the DRC government and M23 agreed to halt all offensive military operations and work towards a formal ceasefire. A 30-day deadline was set for both sides to begin implementing confidence-building measures, including the withdrawal of armed groups from contested territories.
2. Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) Process: A roadmap for the voluntary disarmament of M23 fighters was established. The parties agreed to explore options for demobilizing combatants and reintegrating them into civilian life, subject to further dialogue and trust-building.
3. Monitoring Mechanism: A joint monitoring committee will be established, consisting of regional actors, including Rwanda, Uganda, and Kenya. The committee will be tasked with overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire and ensuring compliance from both parties.
4. Humanitarian Assistance: The agreement emphasized the need to immediately address the humanitarian crisis in the affected regions. Both the DRC government and M23 committed to ensuring unhindered access for humanitarian organizations to provide aid to the millions of displaced persons.
5. Regional Diplomacy: The agreement included a commitment from neighboring countries, notably Rwanda and Uganda, to cease any support for armed groups in eastern DRC. This is crucial, as both Rwanda and Uganda have been accused by the DRC government of supporting M23 in the past. Rwanda has consistently denied these allegations.
6. International Involvement: The United Nations Peacekeeping Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) and African Union observers will provide oversight and ensure that the peace process is adhered to, with a special focus on the protection of civilians and the restoration of stability in eastern DRC.

The Humanitarian Crisis in Eastern DRC

The ongoing conflict in eastern DRC has had devastating effects on the civilian population. Since the M23 re-emerged in 2021, over 1.5 million people have been displaced, with many fleeing to neighboring Uganda and Rwanda. The humanitarian situation has been exacerbated by the proliferation of armed groups, the destruction of homes and infrastructure, and the systematic abuse of civilians by both insurgents and government forces.

Human rights organizations have raised concerns about the targeted killings, abductions, and sexual violence committed by all sides in the conflict. The UNHCR and other relief agencies have warned that the refugee crisis along the DRC-Uganda border could worsen without a lasting political solution.

International Reactions

Dr. Pascal Mukendi, a conflict expert based in Nairobi, expressed cautious optimism about the Doha agreement. He stated:

“The Qatar-mediated dialogue is the most promising initiative we’ve seen in years. However, its success hinges on sustained international pressure and a robust enforcement mechanism. Trust-building will be key, and this will require significant cooperation from all regional players, particularly Rwanda.”

The United Nations welcomed the talks, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressing hope that the Doha agreement would pave the way for a sustainable peace. He emphasized the importance of regional collaboration in addressing the crisis in the Great Lakes region.

The Way Forward: Next Steps and Challenges

While the Doha talks represent a significant step forward in the peace process, many challenges remain:
• Trust Issues: The DRC government has long accused Rwanda of supporting M23, and Rwanda’s involvement in the negotiations remains a sensitive issue. Both sides will need to demonstrate good faith for the peace process to succeed.
• Disarmament and Reintegration: Ensuring that M23 fighters voluntarily disarm and reintegrate into society will require significant resources and international support.
• Regional Cooperation: The involvement of Uganda, Rwanda, and other neighbors will be crucial to preventing future flare-ups of violence. The East African Community (EAC), which has a regional peacekeeping mission in the DRC, will play an important role in monitoring the situation.
• Humanitarian Aid Access: Ensuring that aid reaches the millions of displaced persons in North Kivu and other affected areas will require both sides to allow unimpeded access for humanitarian agencies, something that has been a point of contention in past peace agreements.

Conclusion

The Doha peace talks have brought new hope to a region that has suffered from decades of instability. While it is too early to predict the full success of the agreement, the commitment to peace from both the DRC government and M23 is a crucial step in resolving one of Africa’s most enduring conflicts.

The African Union, United Nations, and Qatar will continue to play a vital role in facilitating dialogue, ensuring the implementation of peace measures, and offering the necessary support for humanitarian aid.

As the process moves forward, all eyes will be on the regional stakeholders and the international community to ensure that the framework established in Doha translates into a lasting peace for eastern DRC and the broader Great Lakes region.

Naija247news Tags:

Women Ministers Push for Legal Reforms, Inclusive Politics Amid Persistent Gender Gaps in Nigeria’s Political Arena

0

By Naija247news Political Desk – Abuja, Nigeria

ABUJA – Amid Nigeria’s growing democratic evolution, female ministers in President Bola Tinubu’s cabinet have intensified calls for urgent legal reforms and cultural shift to end the entrenched political marginalization of women.

Speaking at a two-day capacity-building conference themed “Breaking Barriers and Shaping Positive Attitudes for Inclusive Politics in Nigeria,” key voices in government and civil society came together under the auspices of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) and Inter-Party Advisory Council’s Women Directorate (IPAC).

Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim: “Time to Reimagine Politics with Equity”

Minister of Women Affairs, Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim, led the charge, calling for legal frameworks that protect women’s political rights, creation of safe, intimidation-free spaces, and restructuring of party systems to ensure genuine inclusion.

“Politics in Nigeria must evolve from tokenism to true empowerment,” she declared.
“The barriers may be deep, but they are not immovable. It’s time to act at every level—federal, state, and local.”

She endorsed the IPAC 2024–2028 Action Plan and urged stakeholders—traditional rulers, community influencers, and party leaders—to back the institutionalization of women’s directorates across all 36 states.

Dr. Suwaiba Ahmad: “Equity is the Bedrock of Peaceful Societies”

Minister of State for Education, Dr. Suwaiba Ahmad, echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing that inclusive governance was not just aspirational but a practical necessity for stability and national development.

“Dismantling political barriers demands collective courage. We must educate grassroots women to reclaim their place in political life,” she told participants.

Ahmad urged a culture shift anchored in empathy, civic education, and respect, while encouraging women leaders to become change agents in their local communities.

Mariya Mahmud: “Political Inclusion is a Right, Not a Privilege”

Minister of State for FCT, Dr. Mariya Mahmud, represented by her Special Adviser, Maijidda Kuku, described women’s political participation as a constitutional right, not a concession.

“True development can’t happen when half the population is left behind,” she warned, linking Nigeria’s development lag to gender exclusion.

Pauline Tallen Proposes 50% Gender Quota

Former Minister of Women Affairs, Pauline Tallen, made the boldest proposal of the day, calling for a “Zebra Policy” or 50:50 gender quota system to be enshrined in all political party constitutions.

“Let President Tinubu become the first Nigerian leader to deliver gender parity in governance,” she challenged.

Data Snapshot: Nigeria’s Political Gender Gap
• Women hold less than 8% of seats in the National Assembly.
• Only 7 of Nigeria’s 109 Senators are women.
• 0 female governors currently serve among the 36 states.
• 2023 general elections saw a 12% drop in female candidates compared to 2019.

Analyst Reactions

Dr. Ngozi Ejimofor, a political scientist at University of Abuja, says:

“The proposals on legal reform are timely, but must be matched with aggressive public sensitization and elite consensus. Without enforcement, even the best action plans will remain shelved.”

What’s Next?
IPAC’s Women Directorate is expected to begin grassroots mobilization campaigns from May 2025. The National Assembly is reportedly reviewing a Gender Inclusion Bill, with growing support from reform-minded legislators.

Insecurity Crisis: Nigeria Governors Hold Emergency Meeting With CDS Gen. Musa Over Escalating Killings, Kidnappings

0

By Naija247news – Abuja, Nigeria

Abuja, April 23, 2025 – Amid rising violence and a surge in kidnappings across several states, the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) is holding a high-level emergency closed-door meeting with the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen. Christopher Musa, to find urgent solutions to Nigeria’s deepening security crisis.

The strategic dialogue, which is being presided over by NGF Chairman and Kwara State Governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, is centered on security flashpoints in Plateau, Benue, Kaduna, and parts of North-Central and North-West Nigeria, where killings and abductions have become rampant.

“This meeting is a crucial national engagement to address the threats to peace and stability that have plagued our states,” a top NGF source disclosed.

Full House of Governors Signals Heightened Alarm

Governors present include those from Borno, Ekiti, Adamawa, Kaduna, Bayelsa, Gombe, Ogun, Imo, Oyo, Ondo, Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau, alongside Deputy Governors from Niger, Enugu, and Bauchi — signaling the breadth and urgency of the crisis.

Also present is Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Ahmed Dangiwa, sparking speculation about discussions related to urban planning and resettlement strategies for displaced populations.

Data Points of Concern:
• Over 2,000 deaths and abductions reported in Q1 2025, with Benue and Plateau ranking among the hardest hit.
• 70% of rural communities in affected states report absence of security personnel.
• Internal NGF sources report plans to request increased military deployment, particularly in border and farming communities.

Naija247news Security Insights:
• Security analysts warn that the wave of rural banditry is now spreading into peri-urban zones, threatening national food production and economic stability.
• Civil society groups are calling for state policing and local intelligence reforms, as well as improved coordination between the military and community vigilantes.

Quote from a Top NGF Official:

“We cannot continue to normalize death. Our people are angry, and we must respond not with speeches, but with action and collaboration across all levels of government.”

What’s Next:
The NGF is expected to issue a joint communiqué after the meeting, outlining short-term security measures and a possible request for emergency federal intervention funds.

Oborevwori’s Defection to APC a Major Boost in South South States, Says Uzodinma

0

— Progressives Governors Celebrate Move, Vow Loyalty to Tinubu’s Agenda

By Naomi Sharang – Abuja, Nigeria

Abuja, April 23, 2025 – The Governor of Imo State and Chairman of the Progressives Governors Forum (PGF), Senator Hope Uzodinma, has described the defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) as a “heavy political development” and a major win for the ruling party.

Speaking to journalists in Abuja after a closed-door strategy session of APC governors, Uzodinma hailed the move as evidence of growing national unity under President Bola Tinubu’s leadership, adding that the PGF had resolved to celebrate the milestone together.

“When a sitting governor defects to our party, it’s not just politics — it’s a national statement,” Uzodinma declared.

APC Gains New Momentum in South-South

Oborevwori’s formal switch to the APC, which follows the earlier defection of former Delta governor Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, marks the collapse of PDP’s long-standing dominance in Delta State. Uzodinma acknowledged that the new wave of realignment is being driven by recognition of Tinubu’s leadership capacity and economic reforms, which he says are already yielding results despite challenges.

“Even governors who were not elected under the APC platform are beginning to acknowledge the President’s efforts for a united Nigeria,” Uzodinma noted.

Progressive Governors Back Tinubu’s Vision

Uzodinma said the Progressive Governors reaffirmed their unwavering support for President Tinubu’s reform-driven administration. He emphasized their collective commitment to countering political blackmail, false narratives, and propaganda aimed at undermining the government.

“We are proud of the progress. We will promote these achievements so that Nigerians fully understand the gains of the Renewed Hope Agenda,” he added.

The meeting also discussed pressing national matters, party welfare, and strategies for strengthening the APC’s foothold across all regions ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Naija247news Analysis:
• The Oborevwori-Okowa wave signals a possible South-South political reset, with APC poised to consolidate influence in a region once firmly controlled by the PDP.
• Uzodinma’s vocal endorsement underscores his growing role as a frontline defender of the Tinubu presidency, rallying APC governors under a unified strategy.
• With multiple PDP chieftains now under APC’s umbrella, Nigeria’s opposition party faces its deepest internal test since 2015.

APC Hails Oborevwori, Okowa Defection as Delta Becomes APC Stronghold

0

 — Morka Welcomes Decamping PDP Leaders, Lawmakers, LG Officials

By Naija247news – Abuja, Nigeria

Abuja, April 23, 2025 – The All Progressives Congress (APC) on Wednesday rolled out the red carpet for Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, as he formally defected to the ruling party alongside a political convoy of top-ranking Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leaders including former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, State Assembly members, local government chairmen, and councillors.

APC’s National Publicity Secretary, Mr. Felix Morka, in a jubilant statement from the party’s headquarters in Abuja, described the defection as a significant political realignment that cements Delta’s transformation into a full-fledged APC state.

From Opposition to Power: Delta PDP Collapses into APC

The political earthquake in Delta comes barely hours after confirmation of Okowa and Oborevwori’s defection, effectively collapsing the PDP’s once-dominant structure into the APC. Morka stated the ruling party was “highly elated” to receive such heavyweight defectors, noting it represents a resounding endorsement of President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

“With this move, and the earlier defection of the Delta Unity Group in Ika Federal Constituency, Delta is now an APC state,” Morka declared.

Unity in the Renewed Hope Family

Morka assured the defecting officials of full cooperation and accommodation within the APC, saying their presence would fortify the party’s grassroots strength in Delta State and amplify the South-South’s voice in national governance.

“This is a defining moment,” he said. “We welcome Governor Oborevwori and his team with open arms and pledge our unwavering support as we work together to deliver the dividends of democracy to Deltans.”

He added that this momentum validates APC’s status as the preferred platform for national transformation, and aligns Delta with the broader developmental vision of President Tinubu

Naija247news Analysis:

  • The defection officially transforms Delta from a PDP stronghold to an APC fortress, with ripple effects expected across the South-South.

  • Oborevwori’s shift may influence policy direction, federal access, and local projects as Delta aligns with the ruling party at the center.

  • Okowa’s political evolution, from PDP Vice-Presidential candidate to APC member, signals a broader political recalibration ahead of 2027

Okowa, Oborevwori Collapse Delta PDP Into APC, Join Tinubu’s ‘Renewed Hope’ Train — Wike Hails Move as Vindication

0

By Naija247news – Abuja, Nigeria

Abuja, April 23, 2025 – In a political twist that may reshape Delta State’s power dynamics, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mr. Nyesom Wike, has lauded former Delta State Governor Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa and incumbent Governor Sheriff Oborevwori for defecting from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The duo’s decampment, announced Wednesday, marks the collapse of the entire PDP structure in Delta State into the ruling APC, a move Wike describes as a bold endorsement of President Bola Tinubu’s leadership and governance agenda.

“I Saw It First” – Wike Says His 2023 Stance Is Vindicated

Wike, speaking through his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication and Social Media, Mr. Lere Olayinka, declared the political realignment a “vindication” of his decision during the 2023 general elections to back President Tinubu, despite belonging to the opposition PDP at the time.

“I am particularly happy that what I saw before the 2023 presidential election, others are now seeing,” Wike said. “They have come out at the right time to show support for Mr. President so that the people of the Niger Delta can benefit more from the government.”

He praised Okowa and Oborevwori’s “heart-warming decision”, attributing it to Tinubu’s good governance, commitment to national unity, and vision for a developed Nigeria.

Delta State Political Landscape Transformed

Okowa’s defection—who served as PDP’s Vice Presidential candidate in 2023—and the alignment of a sitting governor signal a major shake-up in the political structure of Delta State. The PDP, which has held sway in the oil-rich state since 1999, now faces an identity crisis, as its top-tier leadership and grassroots structures switch allegiance to the APC.

According to Wike, the move not only strengthens the “Renewed Hope” agenda of the Tinubu administration but also unlocks greater developmental opportunities for the Niger Delta.

National Implications and Call to Action

Wike called on other politicians who may still be “sitting on the fence” to follow suit, urging them to join the APC and support the President’s developmental strides.

“This is not the time to hide when things are going south,” Wike said. “This is the time to take a stand, and they have done so boldly and wisely.”

Naija247news Analysis:
• Delta State’s political center has shifted, with the PDP losing its stronghold and APC poised to consolidate regional influence.
• Wike emerges as a central unifying figure, whose early support for Tinubu now appears prophetic among southern political elites.
• The defection could trigger a ripple effect across other PDP-controlled states, with political actors recalculating for 2027.

CPC Elected Members Forum Reaffirms Commitment to APC and Tinubu-led Government

Forum of Elected CPC Members Reaffirms Support for APC Leadership and Rejects Unauthorised Claims on Party’s Legacy

By Naija247news – Abuja, Nigeria

Abuja, April 23, 2025 – The Forum of Elected Members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), from the Seventh National Assembly, has reiterated its strong commitment to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the leadership of President Bola Tinubu. The forum made this declaration following a meeting held to address critical issues regarding the party’s legacy and future representation.

Leadership Response to Malami’s Claims

The forum, led by Alhaji Basiru Baballe, Chairman of the group, responded to Alhaji Abubakar Malami’s recent comments, in which the former Attorney-General and Minister of Justice cast doubts on the credibility of the CPC faction led by Tanko Al-Makura, former governor of Nasarawa State.

Baballe dismissed Malami’s statements, asserting that Malami had no authority to speak on behalf of the defunct CPC. The forum’s chairman emphasized that CPC was a prominent political force, with over 12 million loyal supporters, particularly in the North, during the 2011 general elections.

“The defunct CPC, which merged with other parties to form APC in 2013, was built on the principles of progressive change, integrity, and Nigerians’ aspirations,” Baballe stated.

Denouncement of Unauthorized Claims

Baballe emphasized that only the elected representatives from the 2011 CPC elections, including members of the forum, had the legitimacy to speak for the defunct party. He categorically rejected any unauthorized claims made by individuals or groups falsely purporting to represent the legacy of CPC.

“We are the true custodians of the CPC’s legacy and the authentic voice of over 12 million Nigerians who entrusted us with their mandate,” Baballe added.

The forum called on Nigerians, particularly CPC supporters, to disregard any misleading or false representations made by unauthorized individuals or groups.

Forum’s Continued Commitment to APC

In a statement that reaffirmed their unwavering support for the APC, Baballe emphasized the forum’s continued commitment to the party’s values. He further stressed that the forum recognized Al-Makura as the legitimate leader of the defunct CPC and reiterated that APC must deliver on its campaign promises to meet the expectations of Nigerians.

“We will work alongside Al-Makura to ensure that the sacrifices made during the formation of APC are preserved and that the party continues to deliver on its promises,” Baballe said.

Call for Media Integrity

Baballe urged the media, civil society organizations, and the public to verify the authenticity of any claims related to the defunct CPC, particularly those made by individuals with no electoral mandate or ties to the party’s legacy.

“We encourage the media to recognize only the elected representatives of the Seventh Assembly, including Tanko Al-Makura, as the legitimate representatives of the CPC’s legacy,” Baballe added.

Naija247news Analysis:
• Forum’s reaffirmation strengthens the unity of CPC supporters within the APC and underscores the critical role of Al-Makura in preserving the party’s values.
• The forum’s rejection of Malami’s claims signals a pushback against efforts to manipulate or distort the CPC legacy within APC.
• APC’s continued success in delivering on its promises is critical, as members like Baballe aim to ensure the party remains true to its founding principles.

Senator Lawal Adamu Secures Over N2.66 Billion for Constituency Projects in Kaduna Central for 2025

By Naija247news – Kaduna, Nigeria

Kaduna, April 23, 2025 – Senator Lawal Adamu (PDP-Kaduna Central) has announced that his efforts have secured over N2.66 billion for critical constituency projects in the 2025 fiscal year. The funds, earmarked for infrastructure development, will address key needs in sectors such as roads, healthcare, agriculture, electrification, water supply, and economic empowerment.

In a statement issued by his Director-General of Constituency Projects, Abdulrasheed Abdullahi, Senator Adamu highlighted the strategic importance of these interventions for his constituents. He emphasized that the projects, which will be executed by various Federal Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs), aim to improve the living conditions and economic opportunities within Kaduna Central Senatorial District.

Breakdown of Constituency Projects and Benefiting MDAs

The projects will be spread across different sectors and will be carried out by various MDAs:
• Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation will implement projects worth N1.45 billion.
• Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security is responsible for N1 billion worth of interventions.
• Other Ministries involved include the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (N100 million), Ministry of Environment (N59 million), and Ministry of Solid Minerals Development (N50 million).

Key Projects and Their Allocations

Adamu also detailed specific projects, which include:
• Solar-Powered Boreholes: N200 million allocated, with projects in Rigachikun, Unguwar Rimi, and Sabuwar Unguwar Mu’azu costing N100 million.
• Solar Lighting in Kaduna South: N50 million for community solar lights.
• Training and Empowerment on Modern Mining: N50 million to educate and equip youth in modern mining practices.
• Transformers for Selected Communities: N400 million for improving electricity supply.

Other significant infrastructure projects include the construction of various roads across the district, with N155 million each allocated for roads like Sir Gbagy Street, Fulani Road by Gayan Road, Rahma Close, Ashapa Street, Luwaw Road, Shagari Road, and Hysaed Close Road.

Community Impact and Call for Transparency

Adamu emphasized the importance of community involvement in the monitoring and evaluation of these projects. He urged traditional leaders, civil society organizations, and local stakeholders to actively participate in ensuring that the projects are executed efficiently, transparently, and with full community ownership.

He concluded with a call for active collaboration to ensure the sustainability of the projects and the continuous development of the constituency.

Naija247news Analysis:
• Senator Adamu’s proactive approach in securing these funds addresses long-standing infrastructure deficits in Kaduna Central, targeting essential services like healthcare, education, and rural development.
• The diversified funding sources from multiple MDAs demonstrate a coordinated effort at both the state and federal levels to meet the growing needs of the constituency.
• The focus on solar-powered solutions (boreholes and lights) is a strong commitment to sustainable energy in rural communities, reflecting current global trends in clean energy.

EFCC’s ‘Anti-Corruption’ Crusade – A Political Weapon or Accountability Tool?

0

As Oborevwori Dumps PDP, Questions Arise Over EFCC’s Role in Party Defections

By Naija247news Editorial Board

The defection of Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) has reignited concerns that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) may have become a blunt political instrument, not a neutral anti-graft agency.

In a nation where corruption has perennially crippled development, the EFCC should be a beacon of accountability. However, the selective timing of investigations, often coinciding with political realignments or internal party crises, has raised suspicions that the agency is being used to pressure politicians into crossing over to the ruling party.

Oborevwori’s Political U-Turn: Coincidence or Strategy?

Oborevwori, who once positioned himself as a loyal PDP strongman in the Niger Delta, made an abrupt leap to the APC this month. While his statement cited “alignment with national development priorities,” insiders suggest that ongoing probes into state-level contracts and allocations may have played a decisive role.

“The handwriting was on the wall,” says a Delta-based political analyst. “EFCC operatives had ramped up scrutiny of some state officials. The pressure was real.”

If this pattern holds, it wouldn’t be the first time that defection has led to sudden silence from anti-graft agencies. Former governors, senators, and ministers have found political asylum in the ruling party, often evading prosecution or having cases quietly dropped.

EFCC’s Credibility Crisis: Fighting Corruption or Fanning Political Flames?

The EFCC has, over the years, made significant arrests and convictions. Yet, the perceived bias in its operations—particularly under administrations known for centralised political control—has damaged its public perception.

“Fighting corruption must be non-partisan, or else it becomes political persecution,” said a legal scholar from the University of Benin.

The timing of arrests, selective media leaks, and the lack of follow-through on high-profile prosecutions all feed into the narrative that the EFCC is increasingly weaponised as a tool of political negotiation.

A Systemic Pattern: Crossing Over for Cover

Oborevwori’s defection is only the latest in a series of moves by embattled politicians who find convenient refuge in the ruling party. For many Nigerians, this validates the belief that:
• EFCC crackdowns intensify for opposition figures.
• Defection brings sudden immunity.
• Institutional integrity is compromised by partisan interference.

What This Means for 2027

With the 2027 general elections on the horizon, Nigeria risks watching anti-corruption lose its moral edge. If the EFCC continues to be seen as a stick used to beat opponents rather than a shield protecting public funds, then not only is the war on corruption lost—the democratic project itself is imperiled.

Naija247news Verdict:

Sheriff Oborevwori’s defection is not just a political move—it is a symptom of a system where justice appears negotiable. The EFCC must reclaim its institutional independence and prove that no Nigerian, regardless of party colour, is above the law. Until then, defections will be seen less as ideological shifts and more as legal escape plans.

Bayelsa PDP Debunks Reports of State Executive Dissolution, Affirms Party Unity Ahead of 2027

0

Party Clarifies Status of State Working Committee, Dismisses Alleged Crisis as “Mischievous”

By Naija247news – Yenagoa, Nigeria

The Bayelsa State chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has described as false and politically motivated the recent reports suggesting that its State Working Committee (SWC) led by Mr. Solomon Agwana has been dissolved.

In a strongly worded statement on Wednesday, Mr. Ebiye Ogoli, the State Publicity Secretary of the PDP, clarified that there is no crisis in the Bayelsa chapter of the party, and that the current leadership remains intact and constitutionally valid.

“The rumour of a new caretaker committee is not only false but intentionally mischievous and ludicrous,” Ogoli told reporters in Yenagoa.

NWC Appointed Caretaker Committee, Not Zonal Body – PDP

Ogoli explained that the tenure of the former South South Zonal Executive Committee of the party expired on March 13, 2025, prompting the National Working Committee (NWC) to immediately constitute a new caretaker leadership headed by Chief Emmanuel Ogidi to avoid a leadership vacuum.

“The report claiming that a State Caretaker Committee was appointed by the Zonal EXCO under Chief Dan Orbih is entirely false,” he said.

He further stated that the PDP’s NWC nullified the factional Zonal Congress held in Calabar, which had declared Orbih as Zonal Chairman, calling the exercise unconstitutional and lacking legal standing.

Legal Battle and Suspension of Turnah

Ogoli also addressed the pending court case involving the suspension of Mr. George Turnah, a prominent political figure in the state. He noted that Turnah remains suspended until a final ruling is issued by the State High Court, which is still deliberating on the matter.

Party Urges Vigilance as 2027 Approaches

The Bayelsa PDP warned against external forces attempting to destabilise the party ahead of the 2027 general elections, and called on loyal members to stand firm behind Governor Senator Douye Diri, whom Ogoli described as a patriot focused on transforming Bayelsa State.

“2027 is months away, but the political games have started. We must not allow ourselves to be distracted. Our focus should remain on supporting the governor to fulfil his development agenda,” Ogoli said.

Naija247news Political Analysis:
• Bayelsa PDP internal structure remains under the leadership of Solomon Agwana, with no official dissolution by the national body.
• The NWC—not the South South Zonal EXCO—has the constitutional authority to make executive appointments or dissolutions.
• Legal issues such as the suspension of George Turnah remain before the courts and unresolved.

Naija247news Verdict:

With the 2027 elections gradually creeping into political calculations, the PDP in Bayelsa appears keen on shutting down distractions and consolidating internal unity. However, ongoing legal tussles and factional interests across the South South region could pose long-term threats if not managed with transparency and inclusiveness.

Naija247news Tags:
#BayelsaPDP #SolomonAgwana #DouyeDiri #GeorgeTurnah #PDP2027 #BayelsaPolitics #SouthSouthPDP #NWC #DanOrbih #PDPUnity #PDPLeadership #PartyCrisis #Naija247newsPolitics

Nigeria’s Downstream Oil Sector Eyes ₦3 Trillion Revival via Competition, Importation Reforms

0

As Industry Experts Say Fair Access, Regulatory Clarity Could Spark Investor Boom in Refining, Distribution

By Naija247news – Lagos, Nigeria

As Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas sector grapples with infrastructure decay, low investment inflows, and monopolistic distortions, energy stakeholders and marketers are pushing for healthy competition and regulated product importation as vital catalysts for long-awaited industry reforms.

With the partial removal of fuel subsidies and gradual liberalisation of pump pricing, sector players say new windows have opened for investor confidence and operational efficiency—a potential market worth over ₦3 trillion annually, according to estimates by industry analysts.

“No single refinery, not even Dangote’s, can meet Nigeria’s entire demand. Controlled importation is not a threat, it’s an opportunity,” said Bamidele Johnson, petroleum engineer and analyst.

Deregulation and Market Entry: Key to Stability

Johnson noted that a deregulated environment, if transparent and fairly managed, will attract private investment in storage, retail infrastructure, and pipeline systems. He stressed the importance of open access to FX, port terminals, and haulage networks, sectors still largely dominated by a few powerful players.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) backed this call, with Mr. Chinedu Ukadike, the association’s National PRO, stating:

“Allowing competition through importation will stabilize prices, improve product availability, and push efficiency in local refining. The consumer ultimately wins.”

Legal, Regulatory Framework Must Inspire Trust

Dr. Ayodele Oni, a leading energy lawyer and downstream analyst, warned that policy inconsistency and weak enforcement continue to hinder progress.

“We need institutional trust. Without clarity and consistent regulation, serious capital will stay away.”

Oni urged authorities to address anti-competitive behaviours such as price-fixing, refusal to supply, and collusion, saying these have historically discouraged innovation and penalized smaller market players.

Dr. Taiwo Ogunleye, Legal Advisor at OPEC, said the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) already provides a strong policy template for downstream revitalisation—but implementation must be aggressive and sustained.

“The PIA is not a wish list. It mandates a level playing field. That includes fair access to pipelines, depots, and import licenses.”

Local Participation at Risk Without Transitional Safeguards

Marketers have also flagged concerns that unregulated liberalisation may expose indigenous players to unequal competition from better-capitalised foreign firms.

“If local businesses are priced out, the reforms will collapse on arrival. Government must support them with access to credit, logistics, and transitional protection,” said an industry source.

Mr. Israel Aye, Non-Executive Director at Aspen Energy, reinforced the economic promise of reform:

“Competition boosts transparency, attracts modular refining investors, and creates jobs. Where monopolies exist, service quality suffers and costs rise.”

Data & Economic Outlook:
• Downstream market potential: Estimated ₦3 trillion annual market.
• Nigeria’s daily refined product consumption: Over 50 million litres of petrol daily.
• Installed modular refining capacity: Less than 20% of local demand.
• Subsidy reduction: Expected to save ₦3.6 trillion annually (FG estimates).
• Dangote Refinery: Expected to refine 650,000 barrels/day, yet may not meet full national needs.

Naija247news Verdict:

For a sustainable downstream oil and gas sector:
• Deregulation must be deliberate, not haphazard.
• Monopolies must be dismantled through policy, not just rhetoric.
• Competition must be inclusive, local-driven, and FX-accessible.

The message from stakeholders is clear: If Nigeria wants fuel security, it must embrace structured competition and regulated importation as bridge solutions—while enforcing the PIA’s long-term blueprint for equity and performance.

Experts Warn New NNPCL Boss — PIA Compliance Key to $10bn Investment Flow

0

Lagos, April 21, 2025 – By Naija247news

Following the recent appointment of Mr. Bayo Ojulari as the Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd. (NNPCL), top oil and gas experts have emphasized the critical need for full compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, alongside adherence to the rule of law, as the bedrock for rebuilding investor confidence and improving sector efficiency.

Ojulari, who took over the reins of the national oil company on April 2, was urged to lead the company in alignment with its new commercial mandate under the PIA.

NNPCL Must Act as a Commercial Entity, Not a Government Agency – Iledare

In an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), Prof. Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics at Louisiana State University, issued a pointed reminder that:

“NNPCL is now a vertically integrated commercial entity, not a parastatal. The rule of law is essential for transparency and accountability—any deviation will threaten capital inflows.”

Iledare advised that Ojulari should cut upstream costs, especially in Joint Venture (JV) brownfield projects, while also ensuring asset security across the company’s operations. He condemned “gold-plating” of projects and called for more value addition in midstream and downstream infrastructure.

“Long-term profitability lies downstream—refining, distribution, petrochemicals—not just in upstream oil extraction,” he said.

He further warned against treating the NNPCL as a government piggy bank, especially by enforcing fuel subsidy obligations, which would derail its financial health.

In terms of energy transition, Iledare maintained that oil remains indispensable for Nigeria’s near future:

“Until a scalable alternative emerges, fossil fuels will continue to dominate. NNPCL must cut emissions without abandoning its core.”

He also advocated for the domestication of JV ownership, suggesting that local consortia should buy stakes, rather than foreign entities, to deepen indigenous participation in the sector.

Sector Efficiency Hinges on Structural Clarity – Adigun

Oil and gas consultant, Mr. Henry Adigun, echoed similar concerns, calling for a clear separation between NNPCL’s operational and regulatory roles.

“Blurring the lines between policy and operations has hampered NNPCL’s efficiency,” he said.

Adigun highlighted the need to prioritize shareholder returns, evaluate underperforming assets, and address operational inefficiencies. According to him, NNPCL must now function strictly as an energy company, leveraging existing JV assets and international partnerships to remain competitive.

He also emphasized the strategic importance of institutional structures to execute energy transition policy, stating:

“The right internal frameworks are needed to ensure a just, timely, and practical transition.”

He concluded that a reformed NNPCL under Ojulari’s leadership could reset investor sentiment, and create a ripple effect across the energy sector.

Economic Insight – Naija247news View:
• NNPCL is Nigeria’s largest oil company, with billions in assets and partnerships across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations.
• PIA 2021 mandates its transformation into a profit-driven, limited liability company to attract foreign and domestic investment.
• Nigeria is Africa’s largest crude oil producer, but is often plagued by subsidy burdens, operational inefficiencies, and regulatory confusion.
• With Nigeria aiming for net-zero emissions by 2060, the leadership at NNPCL must balance climate targets with national energy needs and economic realities.

Nigeria’s 850km Coastline Holds ₦3 Trillion Maritime Tourism Potential — Experts

0

Abuja, April 23, 2025 – By Naija247news

In a strategic move to reposition Nigeria’s tourism potential along its expansive coastline, stakeholders at a one-day seminar in Abuja have called for multi-sectoral collaboration to drive sustainable development of the blue economy and maritime tourism.

The event, themed “Development of National Blue Economy and Coastal Bio-Diversity in Tourism,” held at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre, brought together policymakers, experts, and community leaders under the auspices of the Federal Ministry of Art, Culture, Tourism and Creative Economy (FMACTCE) and the Institute for Tourism Professionals of Nigeria (ITPN).

Nigeria’s Coastal Wealth: Untapped and Undervalued

Speaking during the event, Mr. Abiodun Odusanwo, President of ITPN, emphasized the untapped potential of Nigeria’s 850-kilometre Atlantic coastline, which holds vast economic opportunities in cruising, yachting, eco-tourism, boating, maritime sports, and cultural experiences.

“Nigeria can develop a thriving blue economy if we strategically invest in infrastructure like modern ports, coastal roads, and waste management systems,” Odusanwo stated.

He, however, warned of challenges including inconsistent government policies, lack of scientific data, overexploitation, and climate threats, which continue to hinder meaningful development of the marine economy.

Private Sector, Coastal Communities Seen as Growth Engines

Odusanwo advocated for a framework that would foster economic growth while protecting marine biodiversity. He noted that the private sector is vital in providing capital for resorts, marinas, and tourism infrastructure, while local communities must be empowered as custodians of the environment.

“Tourism must not only be inclusive and sustainable but also deeply respectful of local cultures,” he said.

NIMASA and NIHOTOUR Call for Grassroots Inclusion

Mr. Abari Ahmed, Assistant Director of Marine Environment Management at NIMASA, stressed the importance of engaging coastal youth in the tourism value chain.

“Community engagement is crucial. Jobs must be created for youths, and NGOs must be part of this ecosystem,” he urged.

Also speaking, Dr. Abisoye Fagade, Director-General of NIHOTOUR, through his representative, Dr. Edwin Enenta, described tourism as a multi-stakeholder enterprise that requires synergy between government, private sector, and host communities.

Government’s Role: Building Policy and Infrastructure Backbone

Representing the FMACTCE, Mrs. Ugochi Akudo-Nwosu, Director overseeing the Office of the Permanent Secretary, described the seminar as a call to action for stakeholders to align strategies, share knowledge, and initiate policies that unlock the blue economy’s potential.

“Nigeria’s coastal biodiversity is not only a natural heritage but also a catalyst for cultural expression, eco-tourism, and national income,” she noted.

She highlighted the government’s commitment to mainstreaming tourism into the national blue economy strategy, calling on actors across sectors to contribute to a resilient and inclusive maritime tourism industry.

Why It Matters: Economic Data and Untapped Potential
• Nigeria’s coastline: 850km along the Atlantic, stretching from Lagos to Cross River.
• Coastal population: Over 30 million Nigerians live within 100km of the coast.
• Potential sectors: Cruise tourism, marine sports, hotel development, cultural heritage tours.
• Global opportunity: The global blue economy is valued at over $1.5 trillion annually, with maritime tourism as a key contributor.

Naija247news Economic Insight

While Nigeria has long focused on oil and agriculture as economic pillars, marine and coastal tourism offers a diversification opportunity that could create jobs, attract foreign investment, and preserve cultural heritage. Experts urge that multi-agency alignment, private sector funding, and coastal community inclusion are key to achieving this transformation.

Glitz, Glamour, and Global Buzz – Iyabo Ojo’s Daughter Priscilla Marries Tanzanian Star Juma Jux in JP2025, A Cross-Cultural Carnival of Love

0

Lagos, Nigeria – April 20, 2025 | By Naija247news

In what many have dubbed the “wedding of the decade,” JP2025 – the matrimonial union between Priscilla Ojo, daughter of Nollywood icon Iyabo Ojo, and Tanzanian music sensation Juma Jux – has taken social media by storm, generating global trends and uniting cultures in a dazzling celebration of love.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reported the event as a top social trend across Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, and Snapchat, with the hashtag #JP2025 dominating the digital space.

A Love Story that Bridged Borders

Described by Oyindamola Ayeni of iBrand TV as “a cultural milestone,” the event symbolized more than just a celebrity wedding—it was a celebration of Nigeria-Tanzania unity, showcasing the vibrant fusion of Yoruba and Swahili traditions.

“The Yoruba and Swahili cultures shared the same stage as vibrant traditions and values were exchanged in celebration,” Ayeni told Naija247news.

From the grand traditional Yoruba rites in Lagos to the fairytale white wedding held in Zanzibar, every moment of JP2025 was meticulously curated to highlight love, heritage, and global appeal.

Millions Glued, Phones Buzzing Nonstop

With viewership figures estimated in the tens of millions, digital platforms witnessed a traffic spike as fans, followers, and celebrities around the world tuned in.

“People were literally glued to their phones and TV screens,” said Seyi Folarin, a Lagos-based event analyst. “It wasn’t just a wedding—it was a cultural moment.”

Whispers of a ₦427 Million Naira Budget

Online speculations about the opulence of the event reached a fever pitch when user @emmabravado on X (formerly Twitter) claimed the wedding budget was a staggering ₦427 million.

“I find it hard to believe, but it could be true because the decor and food were so aesthetically detailed with professionalism,” he wrote.

While unconfirmed, the buzz only added to the allure of JP2025.

Another user, @Fatemah, emotionally wrote:

“There’s an inexplicable aura with JP2025, only someone battling with deep sadness won’t smile at the couple… Whatever Iyabo Ojo did to earn such honour, she should continue.”

Reactions From Industry Stakeholders

Entertainment industry stakeholders have lauded the event as a soft power export for Nigeria and Africa, with cross-cultural exchange taking center stage.

“This is how Africa tells its stories—with music, fashion, food, and love,” said Ayo Babalola, a Nollywood film producer. “JP2025 was not just a wedding, it was a cinematic experience.”

Fashion critics also hailed Priscilla’s wardrobe choices, combining traditional gele and iro with Swahili elegance in outfits designed by Lagos-based and Dar es Salaam stylists.

A Mother’s Moment of Pride

Iyabo Ojo, radiant in custom Asooke and Swarovski-beaded lace, was seen shedding tears of joy as her daughter walked down the aisle, embraced by fans and well-wishers from both nations.

A close family friend, Mrs. Temitope Banjo, shared:

“I’ve known Priscilla since she was a child. This moment was beyond words. Iyabo raised her with grace, and this wedding is a testimony.”

Government, Diplomats Join Celebration

Notably present at the Lagos phase of the ceremony were diplomatic representatives from Tanzania, senior Nollywood stakeholders, and Lagos State tourism officials.

Tourism experts noted that JP2025 could significantly boost bilateral cultural tourism, as young Tanzanians and Nigerians explore cross-border collaborations in music, fashion, and events.

JP2025 is more than a union—it is a movement. A display of African love, pride, and unity on a global stage, wrapped in Ankara, laced with diamonds, and served with suya and Swahili spices.

Hollywood Thriller ‘Sinners’ Starring Michael B. Jordan Shatters Nigerian Box Office, Grosses ₦79.5m Opening Weekend

0

By Naija247news.com | April 21, 2025

LAGOS, NIGERIA – In a major cinematic breakthrough, the thriller ‘Sinners’, featuring Hollywood superstar Michael B. Jordan, has emerged as the number one movie in Nigeria, raking in a record-breaking ₦79.5 million over its opening weekend.

The box office figures were confirmed on Monday by FilmOne Entertainment, the film’s official distributor, through a post shared on Instagram.

“‘Sinners’ tops the Nigerian box office with ₦79.5 million!” FilmOne wrote, celebrating the film’s dominant debut in cinemas across the country.

According to the distributor, Sinners recorded the highest weekend revenue among all new releases and ongoing titles in Nigerian theatres, confirming a growing appetite for well-executed thrillers with global appeal.

Plot: A Tale of Brothers and Dark Secrets

The film tells the gripping story of twin brothers who return home after a long absence in an attempt to rebuild their lives, only to confront an unseen and malevolent force lurking within their family’s past.

Directed by acclaimed filmmaker Jonas Elam, Sinners combines psychological horror, suspense, and supernatural twists, offering a storyline that resonates with themes of trauma, redemption, and fate.

Nigerian Moviegoers React

Local cinema enthusiasts in Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, and other major cities turned up in droves, with several showings selling out across FilmHouse, Genesis, and Silverbird cinemas.

“I came to see Michael B. Jordan but stayed for the story,” said Kemi Obatayo, a student at UNILAG. “It’s rare to find a Hollywood film that balances action and emotional depth this well.”

Film analyst Chuka Maduka described Sinners as a “cultural crossover success,” attributing the film’s strong Nigerian reception to Jordan’s global popularity and a compelling script that “felt personal yet universally thrilling.”

Industry Analysts Weigh In

Tunde Aina, a Nigerian film executive, said the ₦79.5m weekend haul was “massive” and underscores the growing influence of Nigerian audiences on global box office trends.

“Nigerian audiences are maturing. They want more than explosions and punchlines—they want stories that grip the soul,” Aina noted.

According to insiders, the film’s successful debut positions it as one of the highest-grossing foreign films in Nigeria so far in 2025, potentially sparking a wave of collaborative interest between Nollywood and Hollywood.

Naija247news Box Office Insight

With Sinners off to a hot start and a strong second-weekend forecast, cinema operators and marketers are already adjusting schedules to accommodate more screenings. The film is expected to surpass the ₦100 million mark within days—setting it on track to become a box office phenomenon in Nigeria.