Nigeria’s 2025 Coup Rumours: The Ghost of 1983 and Tinubu’s Democratic Tightrope”

A familiar shadow returns

When news broke that sixteen Nigerian Army officers — including a Brigadier General — had been arrested for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the story sounded like a familiar echo from a long and haunting past.

Though the Defence Headquarters quickly dismissed the report as “malicious and false,” confirming only that an “internal investigation” was underway, multiple intelligence sources have confirmed that the alleged plot was real, and that the detained officers were attached to the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) — one of the most sensitive security organs in Nigeria’s political structure.

The development, while still shrouded in official denials, reveals a troubling undercurrent: the return of whispers about coups in a country that once suffered a chronic addiction to military interventions.

When the Army looks inward

That the accused officers reportedly served under the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, is both symbolic and ironic. Ribadu, a former anti-corruption czar, represents Tinubu’s effort to professionalize Nigeria’s security institutions. Yet, the allegations suggest that discontent may be brewing within the very heart of the establishment meant to protect the presidency.

Sources from the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) disclosed that the accused officers were holding secret meetings to “take over government from selfish politicians.”

In a democracy where unemployment, inflation, and insecurity remain chronic, such sentiments — however reckless — are not born in isolation. They reflect a moral fatigue within the rank and file, a sense of betrayal that festers when patriotism collides with corruption.

The ghost of 1983

History, as always, provides a grim mirror.

In 1983, Nigeria’s then-President Shehu Shagari was overthrown by soldiers who justified their coup with accusations of “corruption, rigged elections, and incompetence.” Their rhetoric of salvation — “to save the nation from collapse” — became the recurring anthem of military rule for decades.

Today, four decades later, the narrative has returned, albeit through whispers and secret arrests.

From Mali to Burkina Faso, from Niger to Chad, West Africa is once again in the grip of coup contagion, with military regimes exploiting public anger against failing civilian governments. Nigeria, the supposed anchor of regional democracy, is now staring uneasily into that same abyss.

Tinubu’s dilemma

President Tinubu faces a profound challenge: how to rebuild trust within the armed forces while maintaining civilian authority. His administration has already faced mounting criticism over the economy, subsidy removal, and the naira’s freefall.

Behind the façade of power, rumours of elite discontent persist — from unpaid military allowances to allegations of favoritism in promotions.

The Defence Headquarters’ attempt to play down the arrests as “disciplinary matters” might calm nerves temporarily, but the underlying issue — moral erosion within the barracks — cannot be dismissed.

A demoralized military, watching the political elite live in luxury while soldiers die in obscure battlefields, becomes fertile ground for dangerous ideas.

The psychology of power and betrayal

Nigeria’s post-1999 democracy was supposed to bury the era of coups forever. The Constitution made it clear: the military must remain under civilian control. Yet, the persistence of whispers about “saving the country from corrupt politicians” suggests that the psychology of military messianism still lingers in the national consciousness.

It is not merely about weapons; it is about narrative control. Every coup begins not with bullets, but with words — the idea that “only the soldiers can save Nigeria.”

This editorial warns that such thinking is as dangerous as it is outdated. The armed forces cannot redeem a democracy by destroying it.

A test for the National Security Adviser

For Nuhu Ribadu, this is a defining moment. The involvement of officers under his office — even if only alleged — raises uncomfortable questions about vetting, loyalty, and internal oversight.

Ribadu’s credibility as NSA rests on his ability to show transparency in how this investigation is handled. If the process appears secretive or politically manipulated, it could deepen suspicion both within and outside the military.

Nigeria cannot afford another era where silence replaces accountability in the name of national security.

The fragile thread of faith

Ordinary Nigerians have not forgotten the chaos of the military years: censorship, decrees, and disappearances. Yet, growing poverty and disillusionment are weakening the moral shield that once protected democracy.

When citizens lose faith in the ballot, they begin to romanticize the barrel of the gun. That, perhaps, is the most dangerous coup of all — the psychological coup against democratic hope.

Tinubu’s government must therefore understand that democracy is not defended by denial, but by trust.

Editorial conclusion: The road ahead

Nigeria stands at a crossroads — not because tanks are rolling in the streets, but because the moral distance between governance and justice is shrinking dangerously.

The arrest of officers attached to the NSA’s office is not merely an internal military issue; it is a national alarm bell. The President must order a transparent, independent inquiry — one that reaffirms discipline within the forces while exposing the systemic rot that feeds resentment.

If Nigeria must remain the anchor of democracy in West Africa, it cannot afford another 1983 — not in rhetoric, not in secrecy, and not in spirit.

The true strength of a democracy is not in its parade grounds, but in its conscience.

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Reporting by Godwin Okafor, The Naija247news in Lagos, Nigeria.