Nigeria’s private sector maintained its growth momentum in October 2025, as the latest Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surged to 54.0, up from 53.4 in September. The figure—well above the neutral 50.0 threshold—signals a solid improvement in overall business conditions and represents the 11th consecutive month of expansion since December 2024.
The rebound was driven by stronger output growth and rising new orders, underscoring the resilience of Nigeria’s non-oil economy amid moderating inflation and gradual recovery in consumer demand. The PMI data revealed that business activity expanded at the fastest pace in six months, buoyed by sustained domestic demand, new product introductions, and improving price stability across key sectors.
Manufacturing Leads Expansion; Services, Agriculture Also Strengthen
All four major sectors—manufacturing, agriculture, services, and wholesale/retail—recorded higher output levels, with manufacturing posting the sharpest gains. Firms surveyed attributed the growth to rising customer inflows, successful marketing drives, and innovation in product offerings that helped attract new business.
New orders rose for the 12th consecutive month, marking stronger momentum compared to September. Respondents cited modest improvements in household purchasing power, driven by easing inflationary trends that have improved consumption patterns across major urban centers.
Employment Growth Soft but Steady
Employment levels climbed for the fifth month running, as firms hired additional staff to manage growing workloads. However, the rate of job creation remained modest, reflecting cautious hiring sentiment amid lingering cost pressures and tight liquidity.
Businesses reported stable backlogs of work despite increased activity, pointing to operational bottlenecks—particularly power supply disruptions and delayed client payments—that continue to hinder productivity.
Purchasing Activity at Five-Month High as Supply Chains Improve
Purchasing activity rose for the 11th consecutive month, recording its fastest increase since May 2025. Firms boosted input buying to meet rising demand and anticipate stronger order inflows ahead of the festive season. Inventory levels also expanded for the 11th straight month, signaling confidence in continued production growth.
Encouragingly, suppliers’ delivery times shortened for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting better logistics and improved road infrastructure, as well as prompt supplier payments that enhanced supply chain fluidity.
Input Costs Rise Slightly, Inflation Pressures Stabilize
After falling to a two-and-a-half-year low in September, input cost inflation edged up modestly in October, though it remained subdued relative to previous years. Rising material, fuel, and food costs drove the increase in purchase prices, while staff costs rose marginally as businesses adjusted wages to offset living expenses—particularly in transportation and logistics.
Notably, output prices (the prices firms charge consumers) rose at the second-slowest pace in five-and-a-half years, underscoring a competitive market where firms are constrained from fully passing on higher costs to customers.
Cautious Optimism Amid Structural Constraints
While 46% of surveyed businesses expect output to rise over the next 12 months—supported by plans for operational expansion, marketing drives, and export diversification—business confidence slipped for the fourth straight month, reaching its lowest level since May 2025.
Persistent exchange rate volatility, energy costs, and payment delays remain key drags on sentiment. Despite these challenges, the private sector’s steady expansion reflects a gradual recovery trend, supported by improving liquidity, stable policy measures, and softening inflation.
Outlook: Balancing Resilience with Reform
Analysts note that Nigeria’s October PMI reinforces optimism about the underlying strength of the country’s non-oil economy. However, sustaining this recovery will depend on macroeconomic stability, infrastructure reliability, and policy consistency heading into 2026.
Reforms in power supply, forex market transparency, and fiscal coordination will be crucial in deepening investor confidence, sustaining job creation, and translating the current momentum into broad-based economic growth.
Godwin Okafor ✔
Godwin Okafor is a veteran Financial Journalist, Internet Social Entrepreneur, and the visionary Founder of Naija247news Media Limited. With an extensive career spanning over 16 years in financial journalism, Godwin possesses a wealth of experience that seamlessly bridges both traditional and digital media landscapes. His journey in journalism commenced at Business Day, Nigeria, where he laid the foundation for his prolific career. In 2010, Godwin took a bold step by founding Naija247news Media, a platform that has since become a prominent player in delivering timely and accurate news. Educationally, Godwin Okafor holds a Bachelor's degree in Industrial Relations and Personnel Management from the prestigious Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos. His commitment to continuous learning led him to the Lagos Business School, where he further honed his skills. Additionally, he is recognized as a Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania, having successfully completed the Wharton Seminar for Business Journalists. Throughout his illustrious career, Godwin has earned acclaim by winning numerous journalism awards, a testament to his dedication to excellence in reporting. Beyond his role as a Financial Journalist, Godwin Okafor wears the hat of the Chairman at Emmerich Resources Limited, the publishing entity behind Naija247news. His visionary leadership has played a pivotal role in shaping the media landscape and establishing Naija247news as a trusted source of information. Godwin Okafor's multifaceted expertise, commitment to journalistic integrity, and leadership in the realm of business journalism underscore his influential presence in both the media and entrepreneurial spheres.
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