Lagos – Nigeria’s petrol import bill fell sharply in the first nine months of 2025, dropping by N6.07 trillion compared with the same period in 2024, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) trade data.
The analysis showed that the value of imported motor spirit (PMS) stood at N5.42 trillion between January and September 2025, far below the N11.50 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. This represents a 52.8 per cent collapse, a shift analysts attribute to improvements in domestic refining output and reduced reliance on imported fuel.
Quarterly data highlights a consistent decline. In Q1 2025, PMS imports fell from N3.81tn in 2024 to N1.76tn, a 53.8% decline. Q2 recorded a fall from N4.36tn to N2.38tn, a 45.6% decrease, while Q3 saw imports drop from N3.32tn to N1.29tn, representing a 61.2% contraction. Across all three quarters, Nigeria imported N6.07tn less petrolthan the previous year.
The NBS did not attribute the decline to a single factor, but the trend coincides with improvements in domestic refining capacity, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a 650,000-barrel-per-day facility. The refinery began diesel and aviation fuel production in January 2025 and added petrol output in September, significantly boosting local supply.
Analysts say the reduced import dependency has also eased foreign exchange pressure following the 2023 fuel subsidy reforms. Despite PMS remaining a key import item, its share has thinned as local production ramps up.
The Dangote Refinery, based in Lekki, Lagos, has intensified competition in Nigeria’s downstream market. Petrol retail prices have fluctuated randomly, reflecting new domestic supply. However, the facility faced early challenges, including temporary suspension of local currency sales due to foreign exchange sourcing difficulties, as the refinery purchases crude oil in dollars but sells refined products in naira. The Federal Government has intervened to resolve this, enabling smoother operations.
Speaking during a visit by President Bola Tinubu to the $20 billion refinery, Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, promised a major “shakeup” in Nigeria’s downstream sector. While he did not disclose details, Dangote said the overhaul would go beyond price reductions to a complete transformation of fuel distribution.
Dangote also stated that the refinery would soon be listed on the stock exchange, following the listing of the company’s fertilizer division earlier this year. He emphasized that the facility’s operations would deliver broad economic benefits, declaring the days of long fuel queues in Nigeria over.
Plans are already underway to expand the refinery’s capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million, making it the largest in the world. S&P Global reports that Dangote is seeking Middle Eastern funding to support the expansion. Already, the refinery has positioned Nigeria as a net exporter of diesel and jet fuel while supplying large volumes of petrol previously imported from Europe.
Dangote described the initiative as a “herculean task” in pursuit of African energy independence, noting that Nigeria’s existing infrastructure makes the project feasible locally rather than abroad
Joshua Chinonye ✔
Joshua Chinonye is the Energy Editor at Naija247news, covering Nigeria’s oil, gas, and power sectors. He reports on energy policy, market trends, and sustainability with a focus on informing public discourse and decision-makers.
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