Lagos, Jan. 1, 2026 (Naija247news) — Nigeria’s oil and gas sector recorded a measurable rebound in 2025, driven by improved security, relative regulatory stability, and renewed operational activity, according to Prof. Wumi Iledare, a Petroleum Economics expert.
Iledare, Professor Emeritus at the Louisiana State University Center for Energy Studies, USA, said the gains were real but fragile, stressing that recovery is not yet transformational. Speaking in Lagos, he noted that crude oil production improved from recent lows, averaging 1.6 to 1.7 million barrels per day, while upstream rig activity increased despite structural limitations.
“The direction of travel is positive. However, the temptation to declare a full turnaround should be resisted. Recovery is not the same as transformation,” he said.
The energy expert highlighted progress in curbing crude oil theft and vandalism, attributing improvements to enhanced surveillance and stronger community–security collaboration. He cautioned that claims of a 90 per cent reduction in theft should be treated with caution, noting that data remains largely administrative and unaudited.
On downstream operations, Iledare described the market as oligopolistic, dominated by a few major players. He said public debate often mischaracterized competition as a moral contest between investors and importers.
Regarding the Dangote Refinery, he said its strategic importance is significant but outcomes such as sustained 85% utilisation and import reduction remain contingent on feedstock logistics, pricing transparency, and market governance.
On upstream divestments by the NNPC Ltd, he cautioned that without strong oversight and disciplined reinvestment, divestment could become a fiscal patch rather than a strategic reset. He also noted that gas projects like the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) pipeline and Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline remain vulnerable to execution risks and financing timelines.
Iledare underscored the importance of institutional strength, arguing that visible leadership, empowered boards, and a substantive minister are critical for sustained sectoral impact.
“2025 was a year of recovery and re-anchoring, not full transformation. The gains are real but fragile. The imperative for 2026 is consolidation, discipline and institutional endurance,” he concluded.
Joshua Chinonye ✔
Joshua Chinonye is the Energy Editor at Naija247news, covering Nigeria’s oil, gas, and power sectors. He reports on energy policy, market trends, and sustainability with a focus on informing public discourse and decision-makers.
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