Lagos, Jan. 6, 2026 (NAN) — Nigeria’s economy is showing signs of stabilisation but remains fragile, requiring sustained reforms to unlock its full potential, Dr Yemi Kale, Afreximbank Chief Economist, has said.
Speaking at the Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 hybrid event organised by FirstBank in Lagos, themed ‘The Great Calibration: Mastering Resilience in an Era of Asynchronous Growth’, Kale highlighted both opportunities and risks facing the economy.
He noted that recent improvements in inflation trends, external reserves, and exchange-rate flexibility have created “much-needed policy space” for economic management.
However, Kale warned that macroeconomic stability alone does not address deep-rooted structural vulnerabilities. Persistent constraints, he said, include infrastructure deficits, energy shortages, high logistics costs, skills mismatches, and security challenges, which limit productivity and prevent growth from translating into broad-based welfare gains for Nigerians.
Opportunities for growth, Kale added, lie in digital innovation, agro-industrial value chains, services exports, and deeper regional trade integration.
He stressed that fiscal discipline, stronger institutions, sustained infrastructure investment, and human capital development are critical to improving productivity and competitiveness. Kale also emphasised the need for private sector participation and sustainable finance to support inclusive growth.
On economic projections, Kale forecast GDP growth of 3.5–4.5 per cent under a baseline scenario, 5–6 per cent under an optimistic scenario, and warned growth could slow to 2–3 per cent if reforms weaken.
The economist further said that the unified foreign exchange framework had restored market confidence and improved transparency, projecting the naira exchange rate between N1,350 and N1,450 to the dollar, while external reserves could approach $45 billion if current policies continue.
Kale also cautioned on Nigeria’s debt level, which stands at about 40 per cent of GDP, noting affordability pressures due to high debt servicing costs amid constrained fiscal revenues.
He urged policymakers to sustain reforms, strengthen economic resilience, and ensure growth translates into large-scale job creation for Nigerians.
Ifeoluwa Okonkwo ✔
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