By Lucy Ogalue
Abuja, Nov. 21, 2025 (Naija247news/NAN) – The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has attributed Nigeria’s sustained improvement in the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) to a continuous decline in inflation over the past seven months.
In a statement issued in Abuja on Friday, IMPI Chairman Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju said the findings highlighted a clear inverse relationship between PMI and inflation, noting that productivity gains across key sectors have helped drive down prices.
“The PMI recorded its eleventh consecutive month of expansion in October, rising to 55.4 index points. This signals strong and broad-based growth in output, new orders, and employment across the economy,” Akinsiju said.
The think-tank applied the Predictive Regression model using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) techniques to measure inflation based on lagged values of key economic drivers, including the exchange rate and PMI.
“An increase in PMI reflects a decline in inflation because higher PMI indicates stronger production and productivity across 36 sectors of the economy,” he added.
IMPI’s analysis showed that since April 2025, when inflation eased to 23.71 per cent, PMI movements consistently corresponded with declining consumer prices. The October inflation rate fell to 16.05 per cent from 18.02 per cent in September, mirroring the PMI’s rise from 54.0 to 55.4.
Dr Akinsiju highlighted monthly trends:
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April: PMI at 52.4 points
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May-June: PMI at 52.1 and 52.3 points, respectively
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July: PMI at 52.7 points, inflation easing to 21.88%
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August-September: PMI surged from 54.0, inflation fell from 20.12% to 18.02%
“The sharp PMI gains in September and October point to an accelerating pace of economic expansion,” he said.
The policy group maintained its earlier projection that inflation would fall to 14 per cent by the end of 2025. Akinsiju said continued PMI growth in November and December would reinforce this downward trend.
IMPI also forecast that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would lower the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26 per cent by year-end, following the recent reduction by 50 basis points to 27 per cent.
“With inflation trending lower, there is room for further monetary easing. We expect the MPC to cut the MPR by another 100 basis points in its upcoming meetings,” he said.
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Godwin Okafor is the Publisher & CEO of Naija247news Media Group LLC, an independent investigative news platform delivering accurate, data-driven reporting on Nigerian and global politics, economy, finance, and business. Founded in October 2010, Naija247news specializes in developmental journalism, providing timely insights and analysis to readers across Nigeria and the diaspora.
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