Life isn’t a matter of milestones, but of moments”– Rose Kennedy. There are periods which represent watersheds in the lives of nations. They reveal real potential to trigger and witness changes and events that will affect lives in more ways than other moments. The year 2026 appears to be one of them. It could set Nigeria in any number of directions, principal among them being a sustained decline in its potential to recover and grow out of its most pressing challenges, or a marked recovery of its mission, strength, and focus as a country endowed to be among the best.
The difference will be made by the political context in which the elections of 2027 will be conducted and the winners emerge. At this stage, it will be safe to assume that the elections are likely to be lost or won in 2026 and will represent a genuine test of the resilience and quality of our democratic system.
1. The political environment
All Peoples Progressive Congress’s, APC’s, induced-attraction from opposition politicians desperate to secure a place in the governments that will be formed following the 2027 elections will intensify in the early part of the year. APC will likely have as many as 30 state governors by June next year, along with their baggage of state legislators, party structures, and local government leadership. The ruling party will swell with office-holders and massive resources, but its organic linkages with voters in the country will shrivel. Its confidence will be boosted by the degree to which it influences the judiciary and INEC on matters relating to the fortunes of opposition parties and preparations for the 2027 elections.
APC will present a weak scorecard to voters, but will hope its formidable war-chest will be sufficient to procure votes without the necessity of having a good record. PDP will most likely go under in 2026 owing to internal subversion, sustained assaults from the ruling APC, and the latter’s awesome influence over critical state institutions. APC itself will suffer some damage from defecting politicians and internal crises over rewards for loyalty and opportunism. The rump of the PDP, a badly-split Labour Party, the ADC, and smaller parties could form alliances to boost the opposition’s strength to defeat the APC.
Early resolution of thorny issues such as presidential candidature and funding will be central to any such alliance. ADC itself could promise much and under-deliver, unless its leadership presents imaginative and radical alternatives to APC’s more-of-the-same image. APC will be judged entirely on the performance of President Bola Tinubu. This could represent its biggest liability. The end of the year 2026 is likely to end with heightened concerns over the possibility of the conduct of free and fair elections in the first quarter of 2027 and the consequences of widely-contested elections.
2. National Security
The recent US strike at bandits within Nigerian territory exposed the vulnerability of the Nigerian state after more than a decade of failed attempts at securing the country’s population from multiple and varied threats. The direct involvement of the US in this fight will continue to divide the country in arguments over propriety and value. The government’s fortunes on this issue will depend entirely on whether the US will comprehensively degrade threats in time enough to present a security scorecard to the voters in 2027. Time has literally become the most challenging requirement for fighting insecurity at this stage.
Citizens will hold the Tinubu administration responsible for letting-in the US and failing to secure Nigerians after more than three years in power. The South-East will continue to be a major source of security concern if the build-up to the 2027 elections alienates a grassroots level split between Nigeria and separation. Massive fault lines around faith and geography are increasingly being exploited by politicians, raising the stakes in the resolution of conflicts and securing enduring peace. Virtually every part of the country has serious security challenges. Competition over the elections in 2027 could affect the responses of the Nigerian state to particular challenges.
The Nigerian military will require effective and sensitive management and treatment to make it a real partner in all major designs of the government. Innovative initiatives to reduce exposure of citizens to threats will be critically scrutinized by citizens who have low opinions of governments’ capacities to avoid politicizing security. It is important that the 2027 elections are prepared with high levels of transparency and credibility, because they could have a major impact on national security.
3. Economy
Management of the economy will be the first item on Tinubu’s scorecard. APC will be expected to make a strong push to convince Nigerians that it requires an additional four years to realize the full benefits of its many reforms of the Nigerian economy. 2026 will be decisive in terms of reducing damage of punishing reforms which pauperize the poor while flashing impressive figures in improved revenues. The current controversy over the alleged doctoring of the Tax Reform Acts will hang over the administration as a test of its respect for constitutionalism and public opinion. The administration will be challenged to improve its competence, transparency, and integrity in the management of the economy at precisely the moment it needs to dip its hands deeper into public resources to tilt votes in its favour.
4. President Tinubu
In 2026, President Tinubu will be challenged to prove how much he needs a second term. He had laboured in the run-up to the 2023 elections to overcome massive obstacles to the presidency, and his victory showed an unusual level of courage and tenacity in the pursuit of a goal. He broke conventions and took risks, including the risk of choosing a Muslim as a running mate. In 2026, he has to show even tougher skin, after exposing weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Dropping a Muslim Vice President for a Christian will be a costly gamble, but then so is retaining the Muslim-Muslim ticket in a context he had been in large measure responsible for.
He will be challenged by opposition candidates who will promise more security and accountability, and less poverty and corruption. The size of APC’s bag of politicians alone will not give him a second term. Nigerians had voted out Presidents with seemingly unassailable advantages. President Tinubu and his party must resist the temptation to rob the 2027 elections of credibility. The entire future of democracy in Nigeria depends on a credible election in 2027. Indignities under which the poor live. The murmured lamentations of our legislators over unpaid constituency contracts contrasted sharply with the deepening poverty of rural populations, but no one should bet that the former will notice this.
In elevated, more comfortable circles, discussions centered on the places of integrity and accountability in the scandal just breaking around the alterations of the tax reform bill. President Tinubu had stirred faster than usual in firing a key public functionary in the oil sector who had crossed swords with Dangote. Whether this will be a slap on the wrist or the first step towards thorough scrutiny of this behemoth remains to be seen. President Tinubu ended the career of a public servant. He now has to allow an established process to reveal if he had done justice, or he needs to do more.
