“Tinubunomics Scores a Fitch Upgrade—Yet 31.7% Inflation Keeps Nigerians in Survival Mode”

Lagos, April 11, 2025 – While President Bola Tinubu’s economic blueprint – popularly called “Tinubunomics” – earned Nigeria a long-awaited credit rating upgrade from Fitch Ratings, many Nigerians argue that the so-called reforms have yet to put food on their tables.

On Thursday, Fitch raised Nigeria’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to B from B-, lauding what it described as “bold reforms” and Nigeria’s commitment to fiscal and monetary discipline. But as residents of Ajegunle, Kano, Makurdi, and other towns across Nigeria will attest, this glossy report feels like a distant reality, disconnected from their day-to-day economic struggles.

“This upgrade na for who? For us wey never chop since morning?” asked Mama Efe, a roadside food seller in Lagos, her voice laced with frustration. “Rice don turn gold, bread na luxury. Which rating help us buy bread?”

Fitch Sees Promise—Nigerians See Pain

Fitch’s report highlighted key policy shifts under Tinubu’s leadership: the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate liberalization, and promises to cut the budget deficit. These policies, Fitch claims, are steps toward stabilizing Nigeria’s battered economy. The agency even forecasted that inflation would drop to 21.1% by 2025, down from the current 31.7% year-on-year inflation recorded in March.

But for millions of Nigerians, the only thing they feel is more pain. The prices of essential goods continue to spiral, and wages haven’t kept pace.

“My salary hasn’t changed, but bread is now ₦1,500. How can I survive?” lamented Kabiru Yusuf, a secondary school teacher in Kaduna. “Fitch should come and live with us for one week.”

Economists: Rating Upgrade is ‘Optics,’ Not Outcome

Economists are divided on the significance of the Fitch upgrade. While some hail it as a positive signal to investors, others argue that it does little to address Nigeria’s deepening poverty and food crisis.

“This upgrade is based on promises, not outcomes,” said Dr. Ngozi Adigwe, an economist at the University of Abuja. “The reality is that Nigerians are paying the price of reform, but the benefits are yet to materialize at the household level.”

Food inflation, which stands at a staggering 43.1% as of March 2025, has made life unbearable for many families. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the cost of basic food items has jumped significantly. The average cost of a 50kg bag of rice has soared to ₦78,000, while the prices of yam, garri, and palm oil have all doubled since mid-2023.

The Street Reacts: ‘We Can’t Eat Ratings’

Despite Fitch’s optimism, skepticism reigns on the streets of Nigeria. Concerned Citizens for Survival, a Lagos-based civil society group, slammed the rating upgrade as “elite endorsement of mass suffering.”

“This is a classic case of smoke and mirrors,” said the group’s convener, Adebayo Ogunleye. “International ratings don’t cook meals. Nigerians need purchasing power, not PowerPoint presentations.”

The informal workers, who make up over 65% of Nigeria’s labor force, remain unconvinced that the reforms are helping them. “We hear say dollar dey drop, but our life still dey worse,” said Chibuzo Umeh, a tricycle rider in Onitsha. “Tinubu no dey buy from market, na why him no know wetin dey happen.”

Investors Clap, Citizens Cry

While foreign investors are reportedly re-engaging Nigeria’s bond market following the Fitch upgrade, critics warn that this could further isolate ordinary Nigerians from the economic system. As investors celebrate, millions of Nigerians struggle to make ends meet.

“Yes, investment may increase, but what’s the social return?” asked Dr. John Aremu, a development economist. “Without proper social cushioning, these reforms risk widening inequality and stoking unrest.”

Tinubu’s Team: “Trust the Process”

Despite the backlash, the Tinubu administration remains bullish on its economic path. Dr. Tope Fasua, a Presidential Economic Adviser, insisted that the pain from reforms is temporary. “Every reform comes with short-term pain,” he said. “What we’re building is a sustainable future. Nigerians must trust the process.”

However, with unemployment at a staggering 33%, rising youth disillusionment, and purchasing power eroding by the day, critics argue that faith alone won’t feed the people. Millions of young Nigerians remain out of work, their futures uncertain, while prices on essential goods soar. The World Bank and IMF continue to extend loans, further burdening future generations with debt, but critics argue these loans do little to alleviate the current crisis.

Let Them Carry Their Fitch Report to the Market

“Let them carry their Fitch report to the market and buy tomatoes with it,” snapped Mummy Chi, a pepper seller in Mile 12. “We are tired of grammar! What we need is food on our tables, not reports!”

Reforms or Reality?

The so-called “economic reforms” under Tinubunomics are viewed with skepticism by many who are suffering from multigenerational poverty. Economic reforms are crucial, but critics argue that the benefits need to trickle down to those who need it most—the millions struggling in the informal economy.

Fitch’s rating might be a victory for investors and policymakers, but for the people, it’s a hollow prize. Without tangible benefits like affordable food, access to jobs, and stable wages, these reforms remain, for many Nigerians, a distant promise.

A Tale of Two Economies

“The Fitch upgrade might excite foreign investors, but here in Nigeria, people are watching their children go to bed hungry,” said Comrade Tunde Lawal of the Civil Rights Economic Front. “It’s a classic case of macroeconomic fantasy versus microeconomic pain.”

From the markets of Onitsha to the fuel queues in Abuja, Nigerians are asking: How many more upgrades before life gets better?