Tinubu Dismantles Northern Nigeria Cabals, Arewa Held Hostage as Woos Middlebelt For Re-election

By Naija247news Investigative Team

Abuja, March 28, 2025 – Nigeria’s political climate is reaching a boiling point as President Bola Tinubu faces a multi-pronged challenge to his 2027 reelection bid. With tensions simmering between the Southwest, Northern Nigeria, and the Middlebelt, the country is on the edge of a political storm that could reshape the national landscape.

As Tinubu’s government attempts to solidify ties with the Middlebelt, long-standing relationships with the North, particularly the Arewa region, are beginning to fracture. At the same time, power brokers in the Southwest are desperately trying to navigate a growing political crisis that could threaten Tinubu’s hold on power.

Northern Ultimatum: The Road to 2027

Intelligence reports indicate that Northern leaders are preparing for an all-out battle against the president’s reelection bid. Spearheading the Northern push are political heavyweights who aim to mobilize millions of voters and form alliances with the Southeast and Middlebelt blocs to undermine the ruling party’s efforts.

The Northern Elders Forum, led by spokesperson Balarabe Musa, has declared a firm stance against Tinubu’s leadership, citing failed promises on fuel prices and economic hardship. “We warned Tinubu about fuel prices and hunger,” Musa declared. “Now we’ll show him the price of ignoring the North.”

The North is expected to rally twelve million voters against the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 elections. Economic discontent has fueled mass protests, and Northern governors are increasingly vocal about the marginalization of their region.

Southwest Caught in the Crossfire

In response to the shifting political dynamics, political insiders from the Southwest reveal a growing panic within the APC. Documents from within the Lagos APC show approval ratings dipping to a concerning forty-two percent, while seventy-five percent of Northern APC chapters threaten defection if their concerns are not addressed.

The Southwest faces a delicate balancing act. While some leaders call for reconciliation with the North, others advocate for confrontation, creating a deep divide within Tinubu’s inner circle. The recent viral plea from Reno Omokri, warning against insulting Northern critics, highlights the tension. “Our Northern brothers gave us 2023. Must we lose them with careless words?” a Lagos APC Chairman lamented. Meanwhile, a firebrand youth leader boldly declared, “Let them go! We’ll win without the North!”

Northern Grievances: A Stark Reality

The unrest in Northern Nigeria is compounded by severe economic challenges. The region is grappling with three hundred twenty percent food inflation, millions of job losses, and mounting poverty, with eighteen Northern governors unable to meet payroll. These hardships are exacerbated by widespread accusations of political betrayal, with seventy-three percent of key political appointments being made in the South, leaving many in the North feeling sidelined.

The Middlebelt’s Growing Influence

In contrast to the North’s discontent, the Middlebelt is emerging as a crucial wildcard in the 2027 race. Political alliances between the Middlebelt and the Southwest are gaining traction, with groups like the Berom and Yoruba pushing for stronger collaboration. Christian leaders in the Middlebelt are rejecting the Northern Muslim axis, while figures like Wike secretly negotiate with the Labour Party, signaling a shift in regional alliances.

The Middlebelt’s influence has been amplified by a youth-led movement that voices its frustrations with Northern political dominance. Danjuma Barde, leader of the Middlebelt Youth Congress, stated, “We’re done being North’s junior partners.”

Tinubu’s Survival Playbook

To maintain his grip on power, Tinubu’s administration is deploying a series of strategic moves aimed at placating the North while strengthening ties with the Middlebelt. These include:
1. Economic Relief Package targeting Northern states.
2. Cabinet Reshuffle to include more Northern ministers.
3. Security Blitz with a focus on bandit amnesty programs.
4. Religious Reconciliation aimed at mending ties with Christian leaders in the Middlebelt and Southwest.

These moves come with a tight timeline. A Northern governors’ summit in April 2025, followed by an APC reconciliation tour in June, will test the effectiveness of Tinubu’s political strategy. If the rift with the North deepens, the APC faces a potential implosion, with mass defections to new political parties.

The 2027 Election Math: A High-Stakes Gamble

The stakes for the 2027 election are extremely high. Experts project a grim scenario if Tinubu cannot resolve the ongoing conflict with the North. Losing just thirty percent of the Northern vote, combined with the Southeast’s loyalty to the Labour Party, could leave Tinubu without the critical twenty-five percent in twenty-four states needed for victory.

Political analyst Prof. Adele Jinadu from the University of Lagos warns, “Tinubu has six months to fix Northern relations or kiss 2027 goodbye.”

Voices from the Frontlines

Across the country, frustrations are mounting. A Kano trader, Amina Yusuf, voiced her anger: “They promised eight thousand naira palliative. We got hunger. Now they want our votes again?” Similarly, a Lagos APC stalwart, Tunde Jakande, expressed his concerns: “We’re begging Northern brothers daily, but our hotheads keep insulting them online.” Meanwhile, a Sokoto cleric, Sheikh Abubakar, added, “The Quran says keep promises. Tinubu broke ours. Game over.”

Three Possible Outcomes for 2027

With less than two years until the election, Nigeria faces three potential scenarios:
1. Tinubu Survives (if Northern rebellion is contained)
2. APC Implodes (mass defections leading to the formation of a new party)
3. Opposition Landslide (a Labour Party/PDP coalition sweeps the North)