Oil prices experienced a notable increase as concerns over supply disruptions drove global crude benchmarks higher. However, lingering fears of a global recession and escalating trade tariffs limited the extent of those gains. Despite some bullish momentum in the oil market, investors remained cautious amid economic uncertainty.
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Brent crude rose by 1.5% to trade above $85 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1.3%, nearing $80 per barrel. This upward trend was primarily driven by ongoing production cuts from major oil producers, particularly the OPEC+ alliance, and geopolitical tensions that have threatened key supply routes.
The recent attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea, which disrupted trade flows, contributed to market anxieties. Additionally, sanctions on Russian crude exports and production challenges in some oil-producing regions have further tightened global supply, lending support to higher prices.
Recession Fears and Trade Tariffs Weigh on Sentiment
Despite the upward pressure on prices, gains were limited by persistent concerns about a potential global recession. Economic slowdowns in major economies such as the United States, the Eurozone, and China have raised doubts about future energy demand.
Investors are particularly wary of the impact of inflation, which has prompted central banks to maintain tight monetary policies. Rising interest rates have fueled fears that slower economic growth could reduce oil consumption in the months ahead.
Moreover, trade tensions between major economies have introduced fresh uncertainties. The recent imposition of tariffs on key exports, particularly between the U.S. and China, has heightened concerns about slower global trade — a factor that could weaken energy demand.
Nigeria’s Oil Output and Export Outlook
In Africa’s largest oil-producing nation, Nigeria, crude output has shown signs of recovery following months of operational challenges and security issues. According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s oil production rose to 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) in February 2025. This marks a steady improvement from the lows recorded in 2023 when output dipped below 1 million bpd due to pipeline vandalism, theft, and maintenance issues.
The improved output reflects efforts by Nigerian authorities to combat oil theft and enhance security in the Niger Delta region. The deployment of surveillance technology, coupled with partnerships between the government and private security firms, has contributed to stabilizing production.
In terms of exports, Nigeria’s crude oil shipments have played a crucial role in meeting global energy demand, particularly in European and Asian markets. With refineries in Europe seeking alternative sources following Western sanctions on Russian crude, Nigeria has emerged as a key supplier.
However, industry experts warn that sustaining this upward trend may prove challenging. Persistent issues such as aging infrastructure, frequent equipment failures, and the risk of renewed vandalism pose potential threats to future output stability.
Outlook and Market Implications
Analysts predict that oil prices will remain volatile in the coming months as the market navigates ongoing supply concerns, economic risks, and geopolitical uncertainties. While improved Nigerian production offers some stability to global supply, broader economic challenges — particularly recession fears — are expected to shape oil price movements.
For Nigeria, sustained production growth is vital for economic stability, given the country’s heavy reliance on oil revenue. Policymakers are likely to focus on balancing export gains with domestic fuel supply to ensure stable energy markets within the region.
