2027 Presidential Race: Tinubu’s Bid Faces Northern Division Amid South-East, South-South Outreach

As Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election draws closer, political maneuvers are heating up with President Bola Tinubu’s camp actively seeking alliances in the South-East and South-South regions. While the election is still two years away, Tinubu’s political strategy is already sparking debate, particularly in Northern Nigeria.

Tinubu’s 2027 Ambition and Regional Politics

Tinubu’s re-election efforts are gaining momentum following remarks from prominent Northern politicians. Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), recently declared that the North would support Tinubu in 2027 and aim to reclaim power in 2031 under the North-South power rotation principle. Former Zamfara State Governor and current Minister of State for Defence, Dr. Bello Matawalle, echoed this stance, urging Northern voters to back Tinubu to ensure continued national development.

However, these comments have triggered mixed reactions within the Northern political sphere. While some leaders align with Ganduje’s vision, others believe the North should not limit its ambitions.

Tinubu’s 2023 Election Performance and 2027 Strategy

In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu secured victories in the North-West, North-Central, and his home region, the South-West. However, his performance in the South-East and South-South was poor. In the South-East, Tinubu garnered just 127,605 votes — about 5.8% of the total votes cast in the region — marking his weakest showing.

To boost his chances in 2027, sources suggest Tinubu is engaging with South-East and South-South leaders to win more support. Reports indicate that Tinubu’s camp is exploring a deal that would see opposition governors in these regions retain their positions in exchange for backing his re-election. If finalized, this deal could see influential governors like Professor Charles Soludo (Anambra), Dr. Peter Mbah (Enugu), and Pastor Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom) secure their seats while mobilizing support for Tinubu.

Northern Division Over 2027 Politics

While Ganduje’s stance aims to unify Northern support behind Tinubu, some voices in the region argue against sacrificing Northern presidential aspirations.

Salihu Moh. Lukman, a former APC National Vice Chairman, strongly criticized Ganduje, accusing him of reducing national politics to personal opinions. Lukman argued that party leadership should promote open discussions rather than dictate outcomes.

“He’s talking almost like a street hawker,” Lukman said. “The chairman cannot just wake up and announce his sentiments as if that’s the final word. We need a democracy that encourages dissenting views and genuine negotiation.”

Meanwhile, Abdul-Azeez Suleiman, Director of the Northern Elders Forum’s NGO/SCO unit, called for a shift away from regional loyalty. He highlighted that despite Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency, the North faced worsening security and economic conditions.

“The North trusted Buhari to transform the region,” Suleiman said. “Instead, insecurity and economic hardship increased. The experience shows that regional loyalty does not guarantee effective leadership. We must prioritize competence over ethnicity.”

Call for Inclusive Democracy

Anthony Sani, former Secretary-General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), defended Ganduje’s remarks, arguing that Northern APC leaders had played a crucial role in Tinubu’s 2023 victory. He emphasized that respecting the North-South rotation agreement would demonstrate political maturity and fairness.

“Dr. Ganduje’s position reflects the unity within the APC that produced Tinubu,” Sani said. “Northern politicians are free to contest in 2027, but maintaining the rotation principle strengthens our democracy.”

Outlook for 2027

As Tinubu’s camp intensifies efforts to court the South-East and South-South, the political landscape is set to become even more dynamic. While some Northern voices back his 2027 ambition, others insist that democracy thrives on competition — leaving the race for Nigeria’s highest office far from settled.