Tuareg Rebel Ambush in Mali Undermines Wagner Group’s Influence in Africa, Experts Warn

An ambush by Tuareg rebels in Mali, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of Wagner Group mercenaries, is likely to make African military juntas reconsider their reliance on the Kremlin for security, according to Robert Besseling, CEO of security firm Pangea-Risk.

The Wagner Group has been active in Mali since the military coup in 2021 and is also linked to Burkina Faso and Niger, where it provides security services in exchange for access to resources.

Following the death of its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash last year and a subsequent mutiny, Wagner came under direct Russian government control and was rebranded as the Africa Corps.

Besseling told Newsweek that his firm has observed a trend of increasing casualties among Russian paramilitaries, strategic errors, and the destruction of Russian military equipment over the past year, particularly in Mali. The latest incident involved the deaths of at least 80 Russian mercenaries and Malian personnel, and the kidnapping of at least 15 individuals, in an ambush near the village of Tinzawaten, close to the Algerian border. The attack was claimed by the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security, and Development (CSP-PSD), which opposes the Bamako government and was reportedly assisted by jihadi groups.

Besseling noted that these military defeats, coupled with defections and funding cuts, highlight the declining effectiveness of Russia’s Africa Corps.

“These high-profile setbacks will complicate the Kremlin’s efforts to market its security services to military regimes in Africa,” Besseling said.

He added that the high cost and track record of human rights abuses by Russian paramilitaries, combined with their limited success on the battlefield, are leading fewer African governments to seek Russian security services.

This situation may prompt African nations to explore alternative security partnerships, such as those offered by Turkey and the UAE, which could secure more military and defense contracts as Russia’s influence wanes.

The Institute for the Study of War noted that Russia’s Ministry of Defense might use Wagner’s defeats as a reason to replace the mercenaries with other units of the Africa Corps.

However, given ongoing distrust between the ministry and Wagner, and the fact that some Africa Corps troops are engaged in Ukraine, a complete replacement is unlikely in the near term.