Sunak’s Conservatives defeat predicted in upcoming election, Polls


LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) – Three opinion polls on Wednesday forecast a historic defeat for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party in the July 4 election, with predictions showing the Labour Party poised for a substantial majority after 14 years in opposition.

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Polling by YouGov indicated Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is on track to secure 425 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, the most in its history. Savanta predicted Labour would win 516 seats, while More in Common forecast 406 seats for the party.

YouGov estimated the Conservatives would secure 108 seats and the Liberal Democrats 67. Savanta predicted 53 seats for the Conservatives and 50 for the Liberal Democrats. More in Common projected 155 seats for the Conservatives and 49 for the Liberal Democrats. Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, noted that their projection puts Labour on course for a “historic majority.”

The polls used multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) surveys, a method that accurately predicted the 2017 British election results. These latest polls align with previous surveys predicting a Labour victory but suggest an even more significant defeat for the Conservatives than earlier anticipated. YouGov’s forecast of 108 seats for the Conservatives was 32 seats lower than its previous poll two weeks earlier. Both Savanta and YouGov indicated that the Conservatives could be left with the lowest number of seats in their nearly 200-year history.

Prime Minister Sunak, who recently pledged to cut £17 billion in taxes for working people if re-elected, has struggled to improve the Conservatives’ standing in a campaign marked by missteps. His challenges have been compounded by the return of Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, whose Reform UK party threatens to split the right-of-centre vote.

Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system means Reform could garner millions of votes without winning many seats. YouGov predicted Reform would win five seats, while Savanta forecast none.

The Savanta poll, published by the Telegraph, suggested that Sunak could even lose his own parliamentary seat in northern England, once considered a safe Conservative seat, with the contest currently too close to call. Sunak has acknowledged public frustration with his party after more than a decade in power, marked by political turmoil and scandal.

All three surveys projected that several senior government ministers, including Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, were likely to lose their seats. Most opinion polls currently place Keir Starmer’s Labour Party about 20 percentage points ahead of the governing Conservatives in the national vote share. Other recent polls have also painted a grim picture for Sunak, with one pollster predicting “electoral extinction” for the Conservatives.

By Naija247news
By Naija247news
Naija247news is an investigative news platform that tracks news on Nigerian Economy, Business, Politics, Financial and Africa and Global Economy.

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