“ANC Loses Majority After 30 Years, Coalition Talks Expected to Be Contentious”

JOHANNESBURG, June 3 (Reuters) – South Africa is on edge as the African National Congress (ANC) faces the daunting task of choosing a coalition partner after losing its majority in last week’s election for the first time in 30 years.

The ANC, which has comfortably won every election since the end of apartheid in 1994, saw its support plummet to 40.2% of the vote, down from 57.5% five years ago. This result reflects voter dissatisfaction with joblessness, inequality, and persistent power blackouts.

Despite securing the largest vote share, the ANC can no longer govern alone, plunging South Africa into uncharted political territory. “This moment in our country calls for responsible leadership and constructive engagement,” said President Cyril Ramaphosa in a weekly newsletter on Monday.

The ANC’s potential coalition partners are ideologically diverse, ranging from the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) to the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), which advocates for nationalizing mines and banks and redistributing land.

“We would work with anyone who wants to work with us but not with a cap in hand,” said ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula on Sunday after the official results were announced.

With government policy direction at stake, a working committee of 27 ANC officials is scheduled to meet on Tuesday to prepare options for presentation to the National Executive Committee on Wednesday. Initially, these meetings were scheduled for Monday and Tuesday. ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri refuted local media reports of internal conflict, stating, “How can you have disagreements when they haven’t even met yet?”

The DA and the socially conservative Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) have both set up negotiating teams to engage with other parties. Both are part of an alliance formed before the election. “The people of South Africa spoke loud and clear that political parties must find each other and constitute a government on their behalf,” said IFP leader Velenkosini Hlabisa.

The DA secured 21.8% of the vote, while MK, led by former president Jacob Zuma, received 14.6%. The EFF garnered 9.5%, and the IFP got 3.9%.

Under the constitution, the newly elected parliament must convene within two weeks of the election results and choose the nation’s next president.

So far, ANC officials have publicly supported Ramaphosa, but he may face pressure from internal challenges or from coalition partners. “It is going to be very difficult coalition negotiations, especially for the ANC because of its internal contradictions,” said Zwelinzima Ndevu, director of the School of Public Leadership at Stellenbosch University.

Political analyst Ralph Mathekga noted that the DA is likely to demand a strong commitment to anti-corruption measures, which could face resistance from some compromised ANC figures. “It’s going to be a question of whether the ANC signs up for anti-corruption or not,” he said.

Despite potential hurdles, some analysts believe a coalition between the ANC and the DA is the most likely outcome, given the DA’s positive track record in provincial government, particularly in the Western Cape. “I’m tending intuitively to think the DA has slightly better odds than the EFF at this stage,” said Susan Booysen, director of research at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.

Financial markets, which favor the DA due to its pro-business stance, appeared to share this view. South Africa’s rand, stocks, and government bonds recovered some of their recent losses linked to post-election uncertainty.

A coalition is not the only possible outcome. A government of national unity involving all major parties, though seen as potentially unstable and prone to gridlock, or a minority ANC government supported on key votes by other parties, are also options.

The wildcard in the election is MK, led by Zuma, but an ANC-MK coalition seems unlikely given the acrimony between them. Zuma, a divisive figure forced to resign as president in 2018 due to corruption scandals, remains popular in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal and is an implacable foe of Ramaphosa. MK has threatened a court challenge to the election results despite its strong showing.

Analysts have long feared that Zuma’s supporters might stir up trouble if they reject the election outcome, as they did in 2021 when his arrest for contempt of court sparked riots and looting.