As sanctions, production cuts, and non-OPEC output erode OPEC+’s market share, the alliance is turning to Africa’s emerging oil producers, such as Namibia, Ghana, and Senegal, for potential membership.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!This move comes as part of a broader strategy to maintain influence in the global oil industry.
OPEC+ sees Africa as a promising region for new members, hoping to bolster its sway in the market. The last country to join OPEC was Congo-Brazzaville in 2018. The current recruitment drive, led by OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais and Equatorial Guinea’s Antonio Oburu Ondo, aims to integrate more African nations into the alliance.
At an African energy conference in Paris, Ghais emphasized the importance of Africa to OPEC, stating, “OPEC is here today in full force… because we are an integral part in Africa and Africa is an integral part in OPEC.” In 2024, Gabon will assume OPEC’s rotating presidency.
OPEC currently includes Nigeria, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea from sub-Saharan Africa, with Libya and Algeria representing North Africa. Despite Angola’s recent exit from OPEC over a production quota dispute, the group still wields significant influence, controlling nearly half of global production capacity.
The recruitment effort targets long-term membership from countries like Namibia, Ghana, and Senegal. Namibia, with billion-barrel finds by TotalEnergies and Shell, is poised for significant production by 2029. Ghana and Senegal are also on OPEC’s radar, with Ghana producing 130,000 b/d and Senegal nearing production with its Sangomar project.
Even Uganda has shown interest in joining OPEC as it prepares to start producing up to 210,000 b/d from its Rift Valley oil fields by 2025.
However, Africa’s influence within OPEC+ has waned due to factors like underinvestment, technical issues, and crude theft. Nigeria, for instance, produced an average of 1.46 million b/d in the first four months of 2024, below its quota of 1.5 million b/d.
Despite these challenges, African nations remain crucial to OPEC+, and the door remains open for Angola to return. An African source noted, “It’s like in couples, you might have very hard situations, but this doesn’t mean you will definitively divorce. The door is still open.”
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