Cocoa Futures Projected to Surpass $15,000 a Ton as vory Coast and Ghana Output Declines


Cocoa prices have seen a remarkable surge this year, with experts predicting continued upward momentum due to ongoing bean shortages.

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At the World Cocoa Conference in Brussels, nine traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expressed confidence that futures prices would continue to rise, with some projecting New York prices to surpass $15,000 a ton before the year’s end. The unprecedented spikes in prices have left many uncertain about where the market might peak.

The tight supply situation is exacerbated by production declines in Ivory Coast and Ghana, leading to struggles for supplies and high premiums for buyers. Additionally, contracts amounting to around 400,000 tons of cocoa have been rolled over by the two largest producers, further tightening the supply.

As traditional sources of cocoa diminish, traders are increasingly turning to exchanges in London and New York for supply, despite concerns about the quality of the cocoa available. According to Northon Coimbrao, director of sourcing at chocolatier Natra, quality considerations have become secondary for most processors amid the supply crunch.

The surge in cocoa futures, which have already risen about 160% this year, poses challenges for traders and chocolate makers, who face rising margin calls and higher bean prices in the physical market. Despite this, stakeholders across the value chain have shown a willingness to absorb the price increases.

While demand remains optimistic, the full impact of the price surge on consumers is yet to be felt, as some chocolate makers are still covered for supplies. However, experts warn that consumers may start to feel the impact in the coming months, leading to potential challenges in the chocolate industry.

–With assistance from Ilena Peng.

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Godwin Okafor
Godwin Okafor
Godwin Okafor is a veteran Financial Journalist, Internet Social Entrepreneur, and the visionary Founder of Naija247news Media Limited. With an extensive career spanning over 16 years in financial journalism, Godwin possesses a wealth of experience that seamlessly bridges both traditional and digital media landscapes. His journey in journalism commenced at Business Day, Nigeria, where he laid the foundation for his prolific career. In 2010, Godwin took a bold step by founding Naija247news Media, a platform that has since become a prominent player in delivering timely and accurate news. Educationally, Godwin Okafor holds a Bachelor's degree in Industrial Relations and Personnel Management from the prestigious Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos. His commitment to continuous learning led him to the Lagos Business School, where he further honed his skills. Additionally, he is recognized as a Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania, having successfully completed the Wharton Seminar for Business Journalists. Throughout his illustrious career, Godwin has earned acclaim by winning numerous journalism awards, a testament to his dedication to excellence in reporting. Beyond his role as a Financial Journalist, Godwin Okafor wears the hat of the Chairman at Emmerich Resources Limited, the publishing entity behind Naija247news. His visionary leadership has played a pivotal role in shaping the media landscape and establishing Naija247news as a trusted source of information. Godwin Okafor's multifaceted expertise, commitment to journalistic integrity, and leadership in the realm of business journalism underscore his influential presence in both the media and entrepreneurial spheres.

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