The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its World Economic Outlook (WEO) in January 2024, forecasting a 3.0% growth for Nigeria in 2024, slightly lower than the October 2023 estimate of 3.1%. While growth is expected to accelerate to 3.1% in 2025, concerns loom, especially regarding high inflation at an estimated 11.4% throughout 2024.Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!
Key challenges outlined in the report include potential inflationary pressures eroding purchasing power and suboptimal oil production due to theft and infrastructure impediments. The latter is expected to limit export earnings and government revenue.
Globally, the IMF projects a 3.1% growth in 2024, rising marginally to 3.2% in 2025. Despite this positive adjustment, the figures fall below the historical average, influenced by various factors such as elevated central bank policy rates and sluggish productivity growth.
The report notes a diminished risk of a hard landing globally due to disinflationary trends and steady growth. However, caution is advised against excessively loose fiscal policies, emphasizing the potential impact of various factors on the global economic landscape.
In light of the global economic uncertainties, the IMF recommends strategic policy measures for Nigeria, including maintaining a monetary tightening stance, fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms addressing systemic issues for sustained economic growth.
As per Cowry Research’s 2024 Outlook report, a cautious 3% GDP forecast is maintained for Nigeria. Anticipating challenges, the report emphasizes proactive policies to foster sustained and inclusive economic growth, projecting a 3.25% year-on-year real GDP growth in 2024.