Q3 2023: Lower Imports Propel Nigeria’s Trade Surplus to USD3.2bn

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In the recently released quarterly economic report by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the provisional value of Nigeria’s total merchandise trade experienced a -5% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) decline, amounting to USD24.2 billion in Q3 ’23. The lower month-on-month (m/m) trade value was underlined by a -17% q/q reduction in the value of merchandise imports to USD10.5 billion.

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In contrast, export trade surged by +7% q/q, reaching USD13.7 billion. Consequently, this trade dynamic resulted in a higher trade surplus of USD3.2 billion, a notable increase from USD0.2 billion in the previous quarter.

The driving force behind the elevated m/m export trade was a significant 14% increase in crude oil exports, totaling USD12.6 billion. This rise can be attributed to increased production of crude oil and favorable Bonny light prices. The report indicates that Nigeria’s average crude oil production grew from 1.14 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q2 ’23 to 1.20 mbpd.

Simultaneously, crude oil prices surged by 12% m/m, reaching USD89.9 per barrel during the quarter.

A pivotal factor contributing to the surge in crude oil prices was the joint decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary oil production cuts through the end of 2023.

Conversely, non-oil exports, constituting approximately 8% of the country’s total exports, experienced a significant -37% q/q decline to USD1.1 billion, primarily due to decreased receipts from electricity and other non-oil products.

On the import trade front, the reduced m/m trade value mirrors declines in both imported oil and non-oil products. Non-oil imports decreased by -13% q/q to USD7.0 billion, while petroleum imports saw a more substantial -23% q/q decline to USD3.5 billion.

Cumulatively, Nigeria’s merchandise trade value stood at USD49.7 billion over the first nine months of ’23, comprising exports of USD25.5 billion and imports of USD23.2 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD3.3 billion.

Looking forward, the expectation is for Nigeria’s external position to continue in surplus, primarily driven by lower imports, largely due to challenges with foreign exchange liquidity.

Godwin Okafor
Godwin Okaforhttps://naija247news.com
Godwin Okafor is a veteran Financial Journalist, Internet Social Entrepreneur, and the visionary Founder of Naija247news Media Limited. With an extensive career spanning over 16 years in financial journalism, Godwin possesses a wealth of experience that seamlessly bridges both traditional and digital media landscapes. His journey in journalism commenced at Business Day, Nigeria, where he laid the foundation for his prolific career. In 2010, Godwin took a bold step by founding Naija247news Media, a platform that has since become a prominent player in delivering timely and accurate news. Educationally, Godwin Okafor holds a Bachelor's degree in Industrial Relations and Personnel Management from the prestigious Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos. His commitment to continuous learning led him to the Lagos Business School, where he further honed his skills. Additionally, he is recognized as a Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania, having successfully completed the Wharton Seminar for Business Journalists. Throughout his illustrious career, Godwin has earned acclaim by winning numerous journalism awards, a testament to his dedication to excellence in reporting. Beyond his role as a Financial Journalist, Godwin Okafor wears the hat of the Chairman at Emmerich Resources Limited, the publishing entity behind Naija247news. His visionary leadership has played a pivotal role in shaping the media landscape and establishing Naija247news as a trusted source of information. Godwin Okafor's multifaceted expertise, commitment to journalistic integrity, and leadership in the realm of business journalism underscore his influential presence in both the media and entrepreneurial spheres.

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