In the dynamic realm of energy geopolitics, Nigeria, a key player in the OPEC+ consortium, appears poised to fall short of its 2024 production target, as evidenced by data from two of the three consultancies entrusted by the group to scrutinize the nation’s output trends. Tensions within OPEC+ have led to a deferment of its recent meeting, with discord over production quotas for African producers, prominently Nigeria and Angola. Nigeria, seeking an upward revision of its 2024 target, faces the challenge amidst deliberations within OPEC+ contemplating further output reductions rather than increases.Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!
June witnessed OPEC+ revising Nigeria’s 2024 output target downward to 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) from the earlier 1.74 million bpd for 2023, acknowledging years of unmet targets. The consortium, however, extended a provisional 1.58 million bpd quota to Nigeria, contingent on independent verification of its production capability. Nigeria’s strategic efforts to enhance output involve rejuvenating dormant oilfields, increasing onshore production, and implementing measures to counter security threats.
Independent assessments by consultancies IHS, Rystad Energy, and Wood Mackenzie, appointed by OPEC+, are pivotal in determining if Nigeria, alongside Angola and Congo, can attain their 2024 production goals. Preliminary findings from two consultancies indicate skepticism regarding Nigeria’s ability to reach 1.58 million bpd, potentially complicating broader OPEC+ negotiations. Presently producing 1.3 million bpd, Nigeria aims for an increase to 1.5 million bpd in the coming year, contingent on minimal disruptions.
Governor to OPEC, Gabriel Tanimu Aduda, expressed confidence in the consultancies’ findings, though OPEC+ has not disclosed how the lack of verification may influence quota discussions. Nigeria’s oil output, hampered by underinvestment and unrest in the oil-rich Delta region, has dwindled from approximately 2 million bpd five years ago, adversely impacting government revenue. OPEC’s October data places Nigeria’s crude output close to its 1.38 million bpd 2024 quota, underscoring the intricacies of balancing production targets in the volatile energy landscape.