Whose Melody Will an Enlarged BRICS Move to? – Analysis by Peter Fabricius

At the 15th BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg last week, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa emerged as a prominent figure. He managed to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from attending in person and attracted around 60 leaders from both Africa and the global south to the BRICS Outreach session.
Amidst this, Ramaphosa presided over a summit during which the five BRICS leaders agreed to extend invitations to six new members: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Argentina.
Initially, there was uncertainty whether the BRICS leaders would merely agree on criteria and procedures for new member acceptance, perhaps only adopting them as ‘BRICS partners.’ However, they ultimately welcomed six full members and granted partnership status to 16 other formal applicants.
Though the expansion showcased Ramaphosa’s achievement, it was arguably an even more significant win for Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi energetically campaigned for the alliance’s enlargement, despite reservations from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Lula da Silva. This move brings the expanded BRICS to account for 36% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms and 46% of the world’s population.
A noteworthy statistic suggests that the GDP of the expanded BRICS ($60 trillion) now surpasses that of the G7 ($49 trillion) in PPP terms. This development solidifies BRICS as an informal caucus of the global south within the G20. The alliance’s growth has implications for challenging the dominance of the global north, especially in organizations like the IMF, World Bank, and World Trade Organization.
As the new BRICS members look to reshape the landscape of international trade and finance, some liken the alliance to a reinvigorated Non-Aligned Movement. However, whether BRICS is truly effective and aligned is up for debate, with many pointing to China’s predominant role in driving its agenda. Xi’s influence was evident at the summit, bolstered by his state visit to South Africa and receiving the Order of South Africa.
China’s gains from the summit were considerable, including the expansion of membership and the inclusion of Middle East oil powers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. As BRICS grows, it’s also becoming clear that the three democracies within the bloc – South Africa, India, and Brazil – are overshadowed economically by China. The expansion has shifted the bloc’s average Freedom House score for political rights and civil liberties from 48.4% to 36.7%.
The addition of new members has transformed BRICS into a club of autocracies, marking a significant departure from its earlier inception as an alliance of democracies. China’s influence within BRICS seems to provide little in return for its fellow members. The bloc’s recent declaration highlighted aspirations for greater roles in international affairs, particularly within the United Nations. However, China and Russia, both holding permanent seats on the UN Security Council, have yet to explicitly support similar positions for fellow BRICS members.
While BRICS expansion could enhance the global south’s influence, it’s crucial for member nations, especially the democracies, to remain watchful. They must ensure that the alliance serves their collective interests and doesn’t become a platform for new aspirant hegemons.
Peter Fabricius, Consultant at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria