Nigeria’s GDP improves by 2.25% in Q3 despite rising poverty rate

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By Okeoghene Akubuike
Abuja, Nov. 24, 2022 The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), says Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.25 per cent in the third quarter of 2022 on a year-on-year basis.
The NBS said this in its Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report Q3 2022 released in Abuja on Thursday.

According to the report, the growth rate declined from 4.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2021.
The NBS said the reduction in growth was attributable to the base effects of the recession and the challenging economic conditions that had impeded productive activities.

“The Q3 2022 growth rate decreased by 1.78 per cent points from the 4.03 per cent growth rate recorded in Q3 2021 and decreased by 1.29 per cent points relative to 3.54 per cent in Q2 2022.”

“However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis , real GDP grew at 9.68 per cent in Q3 2022, reflecting a higher economic activity in Q3 2022 than Q2 2022. “

The report said in Q3 2022, aggregate GDP stood at N52,255,809.62 million in nominal terms.

” This performance is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2021 which recorded aggregate GDP of N45,113,448.06 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 15.83 per cent.”

The report said the nominal GDP growth rate in Q3 2022 was higher relative to the 15.41 per cent growth recorded in the Q3 2021 and higher compared to the 15.03 per cent growth recorded in Q2 2022.

It said crude oil production in the third quarter of 2022 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.20 million barrels per day (mbpd).

It said this was lower than the daily average production of 1.57mbpd recorded in Q3 2021 by 0.37mbpd.

“This is also lower than Q2 2022 production volume of 1.43 mbpd by 0.24mbpd.”

The report said the Oil sector contributed 5.66 per cent to the total real GDP in Q3 2022.
It said this showed a decrease from the figures recorded in Q3 2021 and the Q2 2022, where it contributed 7.49 per cent and 6.33 per cent, respectively.

The NBS said the non-oil sector grew by 4.27 per cent in real terms in Q3 2022.

It said in real terms, the non-Oil sector contributed 94.34 per cent to the nation’s GDP in Q3 2022.

“This is higher than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2021 which was 92.51 per cent and higher than the second quarter of 2022 recorded at 93.67 per cent.”

The report said the agriculture sector grew by 20.07 per cent on a year-on-year in nominal terms in Q3 2022, showing an increase of 12.13 per cent points from Q3 2021.

It said in Q3 2022, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of Trade stood at 13.17% per cent.
“This indicates a decrease of 1.67 per cent points when compared to Q3 2021 growth rate of 14.84 per cent and 1.42 per cent points lower than Q2 2022 growth rate of 14.59 per cent.”

Poverty rate swells

133 million Nigerians are multi-dimensionally poor.

In its latest National Multidimensional Poverty Index report launched on Thursday, the NBS said that 63 per cent of Nigerians were poor due to a lack of access to health, education, living standards, employment and security.

The Multidimensional Poverty Index offers a multivariate form of poverty assessment, identifying deprivations across health, education, living standards, work and shocks.

The Statistician-General of the Federation and CEO of the NBS, Semiu Adeniran, said this was the first time the bureau would conduct a standard multidimensional poverty survey in Nigeria.

“The survey was implemented in 2021 to 2022 and it is the largest survey with a sample size of over 56,610 people in 109 senatorial districts in the 36 states of Nigeria,” he said.

He added, “Unlike the Global MPI which uses three dimensions (Health, Education and Living Standards), we added a fourth dimension, Work and Shocks in the 2022 MPI Survey. This fourth dimension as well as other added variables such as food security, water reliability, underemployment, security shocks and school lag, were all added to reflect the current realities and priorities in Nigeria.”

The 133 million poor Nigerians recorded by the NBS exceeded the World Bank’s projection for Nigeria in 2022.

The World Bank, which said that poverty reduction stagnated since 2015 under the regime of the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), projected that the number of poor Nigerians would hit 95.1 million in 2022.

This projection was made in its report titled, ‘A Better Future for All Nigerians: 2022 Nigeria Poverty Assessment.’

The report had read, “The COVID-19 crisis is driving up Nigeria’s poverty rate, pushing more than five million additional people into poverty by 2022. With real per capita GDP growth being negative in all sectors in 2020, poverty is projected to have deepened for the current poor, while those households that were just above the poverty line prior to the COVID-19 crisis would be likely to fall into poverty.

“Were the crisis not to have hit (the counterfactual scenario), the poverty headcount rate would be forecast to remain virtually unchanged, with the number of poor people set to rise from 82.9 million in 2018/19 to 85.2 million in 2020 and 90.0 million in 2022, due largely to natural population growth.

“Given the effects of the crisis, however, the poverty headcount rate is instead projected to jump from 40.1 per cent in 2018/19 to 42.0 per cent in 2020 and 42.6 per cent in 2022, implying that the number of poor people was 89.0 million in 2020 and would be 95.1 million in 2022. Taking the difference between these two scenarios, the crisis alone is projected to have driven an additional 3.8 million Nigerians into poverty in 2020, with an additional 5.1 million living in poverty by 2022.”

The rising poverty also defies the government’s plan to life 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years.