UPDATED: Nigeria’s inflation surges for third straight month in April as food imports spur dollar shortage

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ABUJA, May 16 – Nigeria’s double-digit inflation climbed in April to 16.82%, rising for a third straight month as prices for food and non-food items rose in Africa’s biggest economy, the statistics office said on Monday.

Inflation, which has been in double digits since 2016, rose by 0.9 percentage points from 15.92% in March, it said.

The price of diesel, which is used to power generators by most businesses in Nigeria, has more than doubled in the past month while economic analysts say the impact of the Ukraine war on local prices could be felt in the coming weeks.

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased to 1.76 percent in April 2022, this is a 0.02 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in March 2022 (1.74) percent.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending April 2022 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period is 16.45 percent, showing a 0.1 percent decrease compare to the 16.54 percent recorded in March 2022.

The urban inflation rate increased to 17.35 percent (year-on-year) in April 2022 from 18.68 percent recorded in April 2021, while the rural inflation rate increased to 16.32 percent in April 2022 from 17.57 percent in April 2021.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose to 1.78 percent in April 2022, up by 0.02 from the rate recorded in March 2022 (1.76), while the rural index also rose to 1.74 percent in April 2022, up by 0.01 from the rate that was recorded in March 2022 (1.73) percent.

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 17.01 percent in April 2022. This is lower than 17.10 percent reported in March 2022, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in April 2022 is 15.91 percent compared to 16.00 percent recorded in March 2022.

Food Index

The composite food index rose to 18.37 percent in April 2022 compared to 22.72 percent in April 2021.

This rise in the food index was caused by increases in the prices of Bread and cereals, Food products n.e.c, Potatoes, yam, and other tubers, Wine, Fish, Meat, and Oils On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased to 2.00 percent in April 2022, up by 0.01 percent points from 1.99 percent recorded in March 2022.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending April 2022 over the previous twelve-month average is 18.88 percent, 0.34 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in March 2022 (19.21) percent.

All Items Less Farm Produce

The ‘’All items less farm produce’’ or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 14.18 percent in April 2022, up by 1.44 percent when compared with 12.74 percent recorded in April 2021.

On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased to 1.22 percent in April 2022. This is down by 0.24 percent when compared with 0.98 percent recorded in March 2022.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Gas, Liquide fuel, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Clothing materials, other articles of clothing, and clothing accessories.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 13.68 percent for the twelvemonth period ending April 2022; this is 0.12 percent points higher than the 13.56 percent recorded in March 2022

State Profiles

In analysing price movements under this section, note that CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states and locations. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.

All Items Inflation

In April 2022, all items inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Bauchi (18.93%), Ebonyi (18.88%), and Akwa Ibom (18.80%), while Sokoto (14.65%), Kwara (15.33%) and Kaduna(15.69%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On month-on-month basis however, April 2022, recorded the highest increases in Abuja (2.91%), Taraba (2.76%) and Bauchi (2.65%), while Benue (0.29%), Kogi (0.48%) and Niger (0.66%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.

Food Inflation

In April 2022, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi (22.79%), Kwara (21.56%), and Ebonyi (21.45%), while Sokoto (14.85%), Kaduna (15.55%) and Anambra (16.68%) recorded the slowest rise in year-on-year food inflation.

On a month-on-month basis, however, March 2022 food inflation was highest in Ekiti (4.03%), Taraba (3.68%), and Osun (3.04%), while Anambra (0.66%), Kogi (1.01%) and Bauchi (1.08%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation

Nigeria imports many key goods and services. A dollar shortage has put pressure on prices as the government introduced restrictions to support the currency.

Nigerian authorities have said persistent inflationary pressures are structural – linked to deficits and not solely to the money supply – and largely imported.