WeekAheadFX: Naira/USD to stabilize at most FX Windows as crude oil price rise

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In the just concluded week, Naira weakened
against the USD at the Investors & Exporters Window, Bureau De Change and Parallel ‘black’ markets by 0.16%, 0.81% and 0.40% to close at N411.67/USD, N496.00/USD and N500.00/USD respectively despite the recent assurance by CBN to increase liquidity to the banks.

Notably, the FX reserves continued to
decline despite the sustained rise in crude oil prices at the international market – external reserves fell w-o-w by 0.63% to close at USD3.35 billion as at June 24, 2021.

Meanwhile, NGN/USD exchange rate closed flat at N380.69/USD at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market amid weekly injections of USD210 million by CBN into the forex market: USD100 million was allocated to Wholesale Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS), USD55 million was allocated to Small and Medium Scale Enterprises and USD55 million was sold for invisibles.

Elsewhere, the Naira/USD exchange rate depreciated for all of the foreign exchange forward contracts: 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months exchange rates rose by 0.33%, 0.22%, 0.36%, 0.53% and 1.14% to close at N413.10/USD, N415.07/USD, N417.16/USD, N422.19/USD and N433.54/USD respectively. Meanwhile, the spot rate remained flat at N379.00/USD.

In the new week, we expect Naira/USD to stabilize at most FX Windows as crude oil prices continue to trade high at the international market.