WeekAheadFX: Naira seen stable USD at I&E FX Window, Parallel (“black”) Market…

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In line with our expectations, Naira appreciated against the USD at the Investors and Exporters FX Window (I&E FXW) as well as the parallel (“black”) market by 0.05% and 0.43% respectively to close at N385.80/USD and
N465/USD respectively.

However, NGN/USD closed flat at N460.00/USD and N381/USD respectively at the Bureau De Change market and
Interbank Foreign Exchange market respectively amid weekly injections of USD210 million by CBN into the forex market: USD100 million was allocated to Wholesale Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS), USD55 million was allocated to Small and Medium Scale Enterprises and USD55 million was sold for invisibles.

Elsewhere, the Naira/USD exchange rate depreciated for most of the foreign exchange forward contracts: 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months rates rose by 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.11%, 0.25% and 0.04% respectively to close at N386.49/USD, N387.19/USD, N387.91/USD, N390.80/USD and N399.58/USD respectively.

However, spot rate closed flat at N381.00/USD.

In the new week, we expect Naira/USD to remain stable at the I&E FX window amid the refund of the USD200 million from the London Court judgement against the Process and Industrial Developments Limited (P&ID) as this should shore up the external reserves which stood at USD35.72 billion as at September 29, 2020.

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