The World Bank has projected that the global economy will shrink by 5.2 per cent this year as a result of “swift and massive shock” of the COVID- 19 pandemic. According to the bank, that would represent the “deepest recession since the World War 11, with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870”.
The projection is contained in the bank’s June 2020 Global Economic Prospects, which also said that “the swift and massive shock of the coronavirus pandemic and shutdown measures to contain it have plunged the global economy into a severe contraction”.
The bank further pointed out that “economic activity among advanced economies is anticipated to shrink 7 per cent in 2020 as domestic demand and supply, trade, and finance have been severely disrupted.
“Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to shrink by 2.5 per cent this year, their first contraction as a group in at least sixty years. Per capita incomes are expected to decline by 3.6 per cent, which will tip millions of people into extreme poverty this year”.
The bank further said “the blow is hitting hardest on countries where the pandemic has been most severe and where there is heavy reliance on global trade, tourism, commodity exports, and external financing.
“While the magnitude of disruption will vary from region to region, all EMDEs have vulnerabilities that are magnified by external shocks.
“Moreover, interruptions in schooling and primary healthcare access are likely to have lasting impacts on human capital development.”