How Real Oil Price Plunge Collapsed Major Producers to the Brin

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By Alex Longley , Sherry Su , and Javier Blas

Dated Brent benchmark assessed at its lowest since 1999
European, African and Asian crudes trade in single-digits

The prices of actual barrels of multiple crude streams in Europe, Asia and Africa have plunged to as little as $5 a barrel, dragging down the entire physical oil market and increasingly distressing major producers.

The Dated Brent benchmark, a global reference for nearly two-thirds of the world’s physical flows, plunged to $13.24 a barrel on Tuesday, the lowest since 1999, according to price reporting agency S&P Global Platts.

As Dated Brent is used for determining the price of many other physical grades, that means that key European and African crude streams will now sell under $10 or even $5 a barrel, since many are at hefty discounts to the benchmark, traders said. Grades in Asia are at rock bottom too. That’s in contrast with a fiscal breakeven of about $133 a barrel for crude in Nigeria, or Iraq which needs about $60 a barrel.

Stockpiles the world over are expanding rapidly because of the demand hit caused by Covid-19, and space to store the glut is running out.

“Right now it’s bad,” says Johannes Benigni, founder of consultant JBC Energy GmbH. “What we see right now is obviously a meltdown in the market. The market is running into tank tops. ”

Kazakh crude differentials have plummetted since the virus outbreak
Among the grades hardest hit are those most exposed to buying in what’s known as the spot market — for immediate supply. That’s particularly the case in West Africa, where one of Nigeria’s main streams, Bonny Light crude would be pricing a little over $8 a barrel if Dated Brent stays where it is.

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Millions of barrels of crude from the nation remain unsold and planned future loadings are almost a week late, traders said. Nigeria will have to cut production with or without an OPEC agreement because it has nowhere to store its crude, the CEO of state oil company NNPC told a local publication.

Globally, producers have taken at least 1.9 million barrels a day of supply offline this month, meaning less revenue at lower prices, according to consultant Rystad Energy.

In the Mediterranean, the jet-fuel-rich CPC Blend that comes mostly from Kazakhstan is effectively about $9 below Dated Brent. That implies a real-world price of about $4 a barrel if the market stays as it is. Azerbaijan’s state oil company Socar said its Azeri Light crude price fell to a record low on Wednesday. The key North Sea Forties grade is a little under $10.

In Asia, Timor’s Bayu Undan condensate is trading for less than $5 a barrel, while supplies from Sakhalin in Russia are heavily discounted too. Qatari medium-sour Al-Shaheen crude for June loading was priced at less than $15.

Iraq’s Basrah Light crude will be priced $8.30 below Dated Brent in May, which at current levels would be about $5. The country, OPEC’s second largest producer, said earlier this month it has had trouble marketing its crude, especially to India, as a result of the glutted market.

Most of physical European and West Africa crude is valued below 10 $/bbl. that’s for the light stuff.

— petromatrix (@petromatrix) April 22, 2020
The plunge in the physical market outside North America comes two days after U.S. crude turned negative.

In North America, Bakken crude from North Dakota fell as low as minus $37.63 this week, while smaller grades were posted below minus $50. WTI Midland, the U.S.’s top exported grade, is loading for about $6 a barrel this month, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. The grade was sold for a discount of between $12 and $14 per barrel to benckmark ICE Brent at the end of March. With the global glut, the discounts keep widening, with bids for May-loading cargoes at minus $15 to $20.

The slide is a sign of how far refinery demand has fallen. Plants from Portugal to Italy and the U.S. have shut down since the crisis began as their storage tanks are full. Consumption of some oil products in France as fallen by as much as 95% since the coronavirus pandemic began. Total SA said recently that it might not be able to keep its refineries open for another month.

“This is going to be horrible for many, the market just isn’t set up to cope for such swings in demand,” said Christopher Haines, an oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd.

— With assistance by Sharon Cho, Serene Cheong, Lucia Kassai, and Brian Wingfield

(Updates with fiscal breakevens in third paragraph, details throughout.)

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