N16.69 trillion non-oil sector growth spurred Nigeria’s Real GDP growth in Q3

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Ivorian farmers carry cotton balls, on December 5, 2015 in the village of Kanawolo near the northern city of Korhogo. Ivory Coast cotton output rose 11 percent to a record 450,000 tonnes in the 2014/2015 tonnes compared with the previous season on the back of favourable weather and more farmers, an executive of the cotton ginners association said on May 27, 2015. / AFP PHOTO / Issouf SANOGO

• Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product grew year-on-year (y-o-y) by 2.28% to N18.94 trillion in Q3 2019, faster than 1.94% growth registered in Q2 2019.

The Oil & Gas sector was the main driver of the improved GDP number as it grew y-o-y by 6.49% to N1.81 trillion in Q3 2019 (faster than +5.15% in Q2 2019) – driven by a 5.15% increase in crude oil output to 2.04 million barrels per day amid favourable global prices.

• Similarly, against the backdrop of sustained intervention policies from the Federal Government, the non-oil sector grew y-o-y by 1.85% to N16.69 trillion, faster than 1.64% in Q2 2019 albeit, slower than 2.32% in Q3 2018.

The growth was led by the 12.16% output growth seen in telecoms space to N1.70 trillion.

• The Agricultural sector, which increased its share of GDP to 29.25%, also grew at a faster pace at 2.28% in Q3 2019 from 1.19% in the preceding quarter.

Also, the Construction sector which accounted for 3.01%, revved by 2.37% in Q3 2019, better than 0.67% in Q2 2019.

• However, the Trade sector , the second largest in terms of share of GDP, slowed further to 1.45% following the implementaiton of a partial border closure in August 2019 which affected cross-border trade.

With the implimentation of the protectionist policies by government to stimulate the real sector as well as increased minimum wage (which should increased purchasing power), we expect the GDP to improve further in Q4 2019 amid year-end festivities when demand is expected to rise.

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