Nigeria’s Consumer Headline Inflation Surge 11.61% YoY In October 2019; 0.36% Higher Than September 2019 Rate

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All Items Index

The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation rose by 11.61 percent (year-on-year) in October 2019.

This is 0.36 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in September 2019 (11.24 percent).

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.

On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.07 percent in October 2019, or 0.03 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in September 2019 (1.04 percent).

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending October 2019 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.30 percent, showing 0.03 percentage point increase from 11.27 percent recorded in September 2019.

The urban inflation rate stood at 12.20 percent (year-on-year) in October 2019 from 11.78 percent recorded in September 2019, while the rural inflation rate was recorded at 11.07 percent in October 2019 from 10.77 percent in September 2019.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.15 percent in October 2019, up by 0.02 percentage points from 1.13 percent recorded in September 2019, while the rural index rose by 0.99 percent in October 2019, up by 0.03 percentage points from the rate recorded in September 2019 (0.96 percent).

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index was 11.68 percent in October 2019. This is higher than 11.63 percent reported in September 2019, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in October 2019 was 10.95 percent compared to 10.94 percent recorded in September 2019.

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Food Index

On a year on year basis, the composite food index rose by 14.09 percent in October 2019 compared to 13.51 percent in September 2019.

This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Meat, Oils and fats, Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Fish and Vegetables.

On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.33 percent in October 2019, up by 0.03 percentage points from 1.30 percent recorded in September 2019.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending October 2019 over the previous twelve-month average was 13.54 percent, equivalent to 0.07 percentage points higher than the average annual rate of change recorded in September 2019 (13.47 percent).

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All Items Less Farm Produce

The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation rate, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 8.88 percent in October 2019 on a year-on-year basis, slower by -0.07 percentage points when compared with 8.94 percent recorded in September 2019.

On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.74 percent in October 2019, or -0.15 percentage points slower than the rate recorded in September 2019 (0.89 percent).

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Cleaning, Repair and hire of clothing, Hospital services, Major household appliances, Repair of household appliance, Glassware, tableware and household utensils, and Garments.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.25 percent for the twelve-month period ending October 2019; this is -0.08 percentage points slower than 9.34 percent recorded in September 2019.

State Profiles

In analysing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making direct interstate comparisons of consumption baskets potentially misleading and inadvisable.

All Items Inflation

In October 2019, all items inflation rate, on year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (15.20%), Bauchi (13.97%) and Ondo (13.74%), while Kwara (9.69%), Katsina (9.29%) and Bayelsa (9.07%) recorded the slowest rise in headline year on year inflation rate.

On month on month basis however, October 2019 All items inflation rate was highest in Benue (2.20%), Bauchi (1.87%) and Cross River (1.80%).

Anambra recorded the slowest rise at 0.28%, while Bayelsa and Ebonyi saw decline in the headline month on month index by -0.13% and -0.35% respectively.

Food Inflation
In October 2019, food inflation rate on a year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (17.53%), Ondo (17.01%) and Ogun (17.00%), while Kogi (12.12%), Katsina (11.18%) and Bayelsa (9.55%) recorded the slowest rise.

On month on month basis however, October 2019 food inflation rate was highest in Oyo (2.56%), Osun (2.52%) and Lagos (2.05%) while Enugu (0.24%) and Abuja (0.14%) saw the slowest increases in month on month food inflation rate.

Bayelsa, at -0.35%, recorded price deflation or negative inflation (that is, a decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).

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