Analysts Forecast Average Price of Brent Crude in 2019


The average price of Brent Crude will be between $70 and $80 per barrel in 2019, according to a new Rigzone poll on social media site Twitter.

Forty-percent of the 231 poll respondents said the average price would fall within this range next year, with 23 percent stating that the average price would be between $80 and $90 per barrel. An identical percentage thought the average price would be below $70 per barrel and the remaining 14 percent of voters said the average price of Brent Crude would be above $90 per barrel in 2019.

Fitch Solutions Macro Research is forecasting the average price of Brent Crude to be $82 per barrel next year, according to a report from the company dated August 14, which was sent to Rigzone.

The report highlighted that the Bloomberg Consensus forecasted an average Brent Crude price of $69.50 per barrel in 2019.

Looking further ahead, Fitch Solutions Macro Research forecast that the average price of Brent will be $85 per barrel in 2020, $89 per barrel in 2021 and $91 per barrel in 2022.

“In the short term, prices will struggle for direction, as uncertainty around both the impact on supply from the Iranian sanctions and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China persists,” oil and gas analysts at Fitch Solutions Macro Research said in the report.

“Returning OPEC+ barrels and strong U.S. onshore production will offset output losses in Iran, Venezuela and Angola. However, global spare capacity will shrink substantially as a result,” the analysts added.

“Beyond this, a thinning global projects pipeline and the aforementioned decline in global spare capacity imply limited slack in the market from 2019 onwards and will expose oil prices to greater volatility and greater upside,” the analysts continued.

From 2019, the analysts said they expect prices to “increase robustly, with a healthy global demand growth outlook outpacing supply growth, which will continue to experience constraints due to Iranian sanctions, limited new project start-ups and decline rates in Asia-Pacific, SSA and Europe.”

Exploring theoretical alternative medium-term scenarios, the analysts said “a greater-than-expected impact on Iranian crude exports and weakness in U.S. production growth would add upside to Brent.”

“Alternatively, demand side weakness stemming from escalating global trade risk and EM subsidy reforms would limit price appreciation,” the analysts said in the report.

The Bloomberg Consensus forecasted an average Brent Crude price of $69.70 per barrel in 2020, $68.30 per barrel in 2021 and $65.20 per barrel in 2022, according to the report.

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Godwin Okafor is a Financial Journalist, Internet Social Entrepreneur and Founder of Naija247news Media Limited. He has over 16 years experience in financial journalism. His experience cuts across traditional and digital media. He started his journalism career at Business Day, Nigeria and founded Naija247news Media in 2010. Godwin holds a Bachelors degree in Industrial Relations and Personnel Management from the Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos. He is an alumni of Lagos Business School and a Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania (Wharton Seminar for Business Journalists). Over the years, he has won a number of journalism awards. Godwin is the chairman of Emmerich Resources Limited, the publisher of Naija247news.

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