At the recent 5th edition of the Nigeria Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange Dual Listing Conference at the Wheatbaker Hotel, Ikoyi, Nigeria’s notable economist, Dr. Doyin Salami gave a presentation on the “State of The Nigerian Economy”. It was an opportunity for him to engage stakeholders on his perspective of the current developments in the economic space.
From his presentation, Dr. Doyin Salami identified what will be the key three drivers of the economic outlook of Nigeria for the 2018-2019 period.
Nigeria remains an Oil Story
According to him, the Q1, 2018 GDP report which pegged Nigeria’s growth at 1.95%, shows that the recovery from recession was “oil-induced”. This means Nigeria’s economic activities are still largely driven by the oil and gas sector, the international crude oil price and production capacity which will continue to dictate the pace of the economy.
So key indicators to watch for Nigeria’s economy between 2018 and 2019 will be the crude oil price level (currently $77 per barrel), the oil production level (currently about 2million bpd), the oil & gas deals Nigeria will be venturing into, the legislations and policy drive like the PIGB, PIB, the 7 Big Wins and the key investments into the sector.
The 2019 Elections
This will be a major driver for the Nigerian 2018-2019 economic outlook and elections are very critical across the globe. Dr Salami alludes to the fact that the 2019 general elections in Nigeria, will play a major role in shaping the nation’s socio-economic space.
The outcome of elections across the globe, have impact on the financial markets, policies and investments and Nigeria is not an exception.
Dr Doyin Salami harps on the need for a credible and transparent elections in 2019, this he believes will go a long way to instil confidence in the Nigerian economy.
According to him, “It is important that Nigeria must keep in this electoral process, the confidence of both the local and international investors”. He notes that due to the uncertainties that come with an election cycle, some international investors will leave the country and stressed that the major concern will be how quickly they come back.
Dr. Salami makes a strong point that policy will be a major driver to watch. Will there be consistency in policy and governance prior to the 2019 general elections, from the Federal, State to the Local Government levels or will politics replace policy from July 2018?
For the economist and lecturer, what happens to domestic policy in the run-off to the election year will be crucial for Nigeria.