The struggle for the soul of APC and 2019 elections

By Hamza Idris, Muideen Olaniyi (Abuja), Yusha’u A. Ibrahim (Kano), Kabir A. Anwar (Yola), Jeremiah Oke

The fluid battle line for the soul of the ruling All Progressives Congress has continued to shift ahead of the party’s convention scheduled for May 14 in Lagos.

The embattled John Odigie-Oyegun-led National Working Committee and his legion of supporters, including some state governors, are still believed to be pushing for an extension of its tenure, while the Tinubu-led army is already preparing to consolidate its gains, having succeeded in forcing a convention and strategically scheduling the convention for Lagos, where they hope to have Adams Oshiomhole emerge as the party’s chairman.

The party had already given the mandatory 21-day notice to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), making the convention inevitable.

In a notice signed by its national secretary, Hon. Mai Mala Buni and addressed to INEC chairman, the party stated, “We write to advise that our party is scheduled to conduct ward, local government, state congresses and national convention to fill vacant offices arising from effusion of time or appointment into government offices, death and other reasons as stipulated in Article 17 of our party’s constitution.”

As a response to this, Daily Trust on Sunday gathered that APC governors working for Oyegun had begun strategising to control party delegates who would vote at the convention to ensure that their candidates emerge victorious, thereby placing the party firmly in their control for the 2019 elections.

This scenario has set up dicey interplays for the party’s state congresses, starting from the ward congresses scheduled for May 2.  It is in the state congresses and the delegates that emerge from them that the shape of the national convention is likely to be determined, and in this regard, the APC governors are going to battle for the souls of their states. And depending on where the governors’ loyalty lies, whether with the Tinubu or Oyegun camp, the outcome of the state congresses will matter a lot.

In the build-up to the congresses, President Muhammadu Buhari had cleverly extricated himself from blame over the entanglement in the APC. Initially, there were insinuations that the president had allowed the crisis in the party to get out of hand, but following the firm position he took during the last NEC meeting of the party, it is believed that he has done enough for various interest groups.

“He had assuaged the feeling of Tinubu when he said congresses and convention should be held. He also carried Oyegun and others along when he said they should be granted waiver to go for second term.

“But the major problem now is that in all honesty, the Oyegun clique does not want the national convention to hold, and they are trying to cash in on one of the recommendations of the Governor Simon Lalong-led Technical Committee to have their way,” a top party source said

The content of the 21-day notice given to INEC has already  elicited fresh suspicion in the party, such that Oyegun and other NWC members are considering the possibility of working to ensure that the national convention does not hold so as to force the party to settle for tenure extension.

In retrospect, the Lalong committee had advised that as a way out of the imbroglio, the party should, among other things, organise a convention; aggrieved parties who have gone to court should withdraw their cases; status quo as far zoning arrangement of various offices should be retained; and most importantly, if all these could not be achieved, the decision taken during the February NEC meeting of the party, which extended the tenure of the current leaders, should be respected.

But already, the party has announced a list of the 68 members of the National Convention Committee, and again, President Buhari is thought to have played it safe.

“Let me tell you, President Buhari is in the know of how the list was arrived at. He ensured that none of the various camps would feel cheated,” a senior party official who did not want his name in print said.

With the appointment of Governor Abubakar Badaru of Jigawa State, a core loyalist of  Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the decision has created concerns in the camps of Senate President Bukola Saraki and Chief Oyegun, who must now come to the convention well-armed with loyalists to have a good outing; and to do this, they have to take full control of their state delegates, which is easier said than done.

Tinubu is said to be sparing no efforts to ensure the success of his candidate, Oshimhole, in the election. The party leader is believed to have thrown all his weight behind the former Edo State governor because of the latter’s unfliching loyalty to him.

Oshiomhole, according to political watchers, is one of the few governors in the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) that have not parted ways with Tinubu after serving out their tenures as governors. Oshiomhole, it was said, had remained loyal to the party leader, even after serving two terms as governor.

But while Tinubu is strategising to get a strong foothold in a post-convention APC ahead of 2019 elections, the pro-Oyegun camp which boasts of governors El-Rufa’i, Bello and other heavyweights, is said to be working on tactics to employ to get Oyegun returned as party chairman.

For the two governors, it is speculated that their calculations for supporting Oyegun’s retention is premised on addressing certain local issues in their states’ chapters of the party.

Oyegun, it was argued, has allowed them a great deal in calling the shots in APC matters in their respective states and stands to do more in 2019 if he defeats Tinubu’s candidate.

Daily Trust on Sunday leant that separate meetings are being held by the two sides to perfect their objectives.

The battle front states for the APC

Sources said the inclusion of the governors that struggled for tenure extension, as well as former governors who are now senators, is meant to assure them that their interests would not be jeopardised. However, there are allegations that some governors are not willing to hold any congress as they are trying to give automatic waiver and endorsement to present leaders.

The names of key political figures on the list, a source said, is an assurance that they would still be given not only the party leadership in their states but also the opportunity to control party structures and produce delegates that would attend the congresses  and the national convention.

Kano

In Kano, the APC may likely have two conventions in the state to be conducted by the  Gandujiyya and Kwankwasiyya factions, as the two groups attempted to do the same thing during the last local government election held in the state on the February 10.

It would be recalled that during the last local government election, both the Kano State Independent Electoral Commission (KANSIEC) and Kwankwasiyya sold forms to some party members interested in contesting for chairmanship and councillorship positions.

Daily Trust on Sunday reports that despite the intervention of the national headquarters of the party, which led to the appointment of Yahaya Karaye, an engineer, as chairman of the party in the state, the Gandujiyya and Kwankwasiyya syndrome is still playing a significant role in the politics of Kano.

Adamawa

In Adamawa State, the battle for the control of the party machinery is getting dirtier as Governor Muhammadu Jibrila and a group led by former Governor Murtala Nyako battle to outdo each other, with allegations of financial inducements already being made.

Jibrila is working for the election of the  party’s acting chairman, Ibrahim Bilal, who is from the same senatorial zone as the governor, while Nyako and his associates within the Buhari camp are working to field a fresh person they can trust.

A member of the Nyako camp, Uba Dan-Arewa has accused Bilal and some members of the state executive of creating division in the party and discouraging members from exercising their rights to contest for elective offices.

Oyo

In Oyo State, the cold war in the party may lead to parallel congresses. At the moment, the party is divided into three factions. There is a group loyal to Governor Abiola Ajimobi, known as SENACO, while another group is loyal to the former governor of the state, Alhaji Lam Adesina, known as Lamist group. The third group is loyal to the Minister of Communication, Adebayo Shittu.

The recent disagreement was the development ahead of the May 12 local government election in the state. Many members of the leadership of the party have condemned the imposition of candidates across the 33 local government areas of the state.

Imo

The case in Imo presents an interesting scenario. Stakeholders and key players in the state chapter of the APC are now gearing up for the make-or-mar party’s congresses and national convention.

What is, however, dominating the agenda is the plan by Governor Rochas Okorocha to impose his son-in-law, Mazi Uche Nwosu, as his successor and the vow by some stakeholders to stop him.  The congresses, in the view of political analysts, will determine which of the contending forces would have the upper hand in the fierce scramble for the soul of the party ahead of the governorship primary.

Bauchi

In Bauchi, the party is still struggling with internal wrangling among its members.

The feud between Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar and the state party leadership on one hand, federal lawmakers and other aggrieved members of the party on the other, has aggravated the situation ahead of the congresses.

About two months ago, Governor Abubakar had a series of meetings with party delegates from all the 20 local government areas in the state, which many see as a subtle move by the governor and leadership of the party to have a firm grip on them ahead of the congresses.

Many, however, believed that the delegates could not be pacified easily because they had allegedly been abandoned after they were used in the run-up to the 2015 elections.

For many observers, Bauchi South, because of its peculiarity, will be a battleground during the congresses in the state.

The reason is not farfetched because Bauchi South is the political base of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, who represents Bogoro, Dass and Tafawa Balewa federal constituency. Dogara is expected to do everything possible to secure the delegates so that he would not be pushed into oblivion.

Lagos

High-wire politics is taking centre stage at the Lagos State chapter of the APC, as alignment and re-alignment of forces are currently on among party stalwarts, members and political caucuses.

Findings by Daily Trust on Sunday revealed that whereas the former Lagos State governor and national leader of the party,  Tinubu, still holds a firm grip of the party’s machinery, there are moves, especially, among those who are considered as “Abuja-based” and those of the legacy parties to strike deals capable of giving them some recognition in the scheme of things.

Plateau

In Plateau State, the battle for the soul of the party is a straightforward fight between  Governor Mr Simon Lalong and the Minister of Sports, Solomon Dalung.  The duo have been trading words over who controls the party in the state. How this will affect the state congress will be seen in the coming days.

From all indications, those who will lead the ruling party into the 2019 elections would be determined by state congresses and which factions would take control of its machinery.

As the intrigues continue to unfold, political observers will continue to follow the trend in the crucial weeks and months ahead.