2016 National Disposable Income Rises 5.57 % amid 48.21% Rise in Current Account Surplus

Freshly released real sector data by National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria‟s
National Disposable Income (NDI) at 2010 purchasers’ value increased year-on-year by
5.30% (and quarter-on-quarter by 4.55%) to N19.99 trillion in Q4 2016.

On an annual basis, NDI also increased y-o-y by 5.57% to N74.35 trillion.
The y-o-y increase in Q4 2016 NDI resulted from improvement in both primary (factor) and
secondary (transfers) incomes from abroad  which compensated for declines in domestic factor income. Specifically, “other current transfers from the rest of the world” spiked y-o- y by 81.84% to N2.83 trillion; “compensation of employees from the rest of the world” increased y-o-y by 65.76% to N27.02 billion; while the deficit on “property &  entrepreneurial
expenses from the rest of the world” (i.e. income received from abroad minus income paid to foreigners) declined y-o-y by 40.23% to N116.16 billion. These offset a 2.14% y-o-y decline in “domestic factor income” to N17.02 trillion of which “operating surplus” declined y-o-y 2.18% to N13.01 trillion and “compensation of employees” fell y-o-y by 2.03% to
N4.01 trillion.
“Net taxes on products” increased by 6.99% y-o-y in to N226.540 billion. In the review
quarter, real NDI measured by expenditure approach showed that Domestic Absorption (DA)
– comprising final consumption by households, general government plus net investments
by corporations– decreased y-o-y by 14.43% (and q-o-q by 4.22%) to N12.99
trillion in Q4 2016.
On an annual basis, DA also fell y-o-y by 6.53% to N51.28trillion.
Howbeit, Current Account Balance (CAB) surplus–an excess of income or NDI over consumption or DA– increasedly-o-y by 84.11% (and q-o-q by 25.96%)to N6.99 trillion. The Q4 data also showed a 53.38 % increase in savings (following decreased consumption activities) to N8.53 trillion accompanied by a decrease in investments activities by
13.04% to N1.53trillion.
On an annual basis, CAB surplus also increased y-o-y by 48.21% to N23.08
Meanwhile, CAB as a percentage of real GDP (N18.21 trillion as at Q4 2016) improved to
38.43% in the review period compared to 20.51% in the corresponding period of 2015; exports of goods and services as a percentage of real GDP was 30.10%, higher than 20.16
in Q4 2015; while imports of goods and services as percentage of real GDP decreased to
5.66%, compared to 6.14% in Q42015 amid a devaluation/depreciation of the local currency relative to the U.S. Dollar. Measuring trade integration, Nigeria‟s economy showed greater openness following strengthened performance in trade numbers as, trade balance as a percentage of real GDP increased to 24.43% in Q4 2016 as against 14.02% in Q4 2015; while total trade as a percentage of real GDP was 35.76% in Q4 2016, lower than 26.29
% in Q42015. On the foreign scene,the British economy advanced 1.5% y-o-y in the third quarter of2017 (unchanged from the preceding quarter) according to preliminary estimat
es as output growth slowed forservices and construction at 1.5% (from 1.8% in Q2 2017) and 2.8% (from 4.1% in Q2 2017) respectively, while industrial production increased at faster pace at 1.6% (from 0.2% in Q2 2017).
In another development,the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) remained accomodative as it voted to, among other things, leave the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and-0.40% respectively. Similarly, the non-standard monetary policy purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) is expected to continue at thecurrent monthly pace of EUR60 billion until the end of December 2017; and at a monthly pace of EUR30 billion from January 2018 until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.
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Godwin Okafor is a Financial Journalist, Internet Social Entrepreneur and Founder of Naija247news Media Limited. He has over 16 years experience in financial journalism. His experience cuts across traditional and digital media. He started his journalism career at Business Day, Nigeria and founded Naija247news Media in 2010. Godwin holds a Bachelors degree in Industrial Relations and Personnel Management from the Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos. He is an alumni of Lagos Business School and a Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania (Wharton Seminar for Business Journalists). Over the years, he has won a number of journalism awards. Godwin is the chairman of Emmerich Resources Limited, the publisher of Naija247news.

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