Nigeria’s February 2019 Annual Inflation Rate Falls to 11.31% as Core Inflation Eases to 9.80%…

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In line with our expectation, February headline inflation rate further moderated to 11.31% year-on-year (from 11.37% in January 2019), printing two consecutive months of decline.

The sustained fall in annual inflation rate was driven by decreases in food prices, especially in Abia, Delta and Lagos States – food inflation in the respective states moderated y-o-y to 10.81%, 11.51% and 12.94% in February 2019.

The pressure on general price level of food eased y-o-y to 13.47% (slower than 13.51% in January 2019), amid harvest season which lasted till the end of February.

In the same vein, core inflation rate grew slower, on an annual basis, to 9.80% (from 9.91% growth in January 2019) and on a monthly basis, slowed to 0.65% (against 0.81% growth in January 2019).

This was partly driven by y-o-y fall in the costs of transport (-0.22%), clothing & footwear (-0.06%) and energy cost (-0.11%). Although the change in price level for imported food remained above headline inflation rate of 11.31%, we saw it slow y-o-y to 15.61% in the month under review (from 15.66% in January 2019) amid monthly average appreciation of the Naira against USD across market segments (FX rate fell m-o-m by 1.72% to N357.50/USD at the BDC market).

Inflation rate in the urban area dropped y-o-y to 11.59% (from 11.66%) as well as in the rural area, to 11.05% (from 11.11%) in February 2019.
Outlook:

“Amid delayed implementation of minimum wage, early stage of planting season and stability of the foreign exchnage rate, we expect headline inflation to further maintain its lower trajectory in March 2019″.

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Godwin Okafor is a Financial Journalist, Internet Social Entrepreneur and Founder of Naija247news Media Limited. He has over 16 years experience in financial journalism. His experience cuts across traditional and digital media. He started his journalism career at Business Day, Nigeria and founded Naija247news Media in 2010. Godwin holds a Bachelors degree in Industrial Relations and Personnel Management from the Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos. He is an alumni of Lagos Business School and a Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania (Wharton Seminar for Business Journalists). Over the years, he has won a number of journalism awards. Godwin is the chairman of Emmerich Resources Limited, the publisher of Naija247news.

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