UPDATED: Nigeria’s November Inflation Rate Up 11.28% as Food Prices Rise in Rural Areas…

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Recently released November inflation report showed that headline inflation rate reversed its downtrend, to 11.28% year-on-year (from 11.26% in October 2018) in line with our expectation.

The marginal increase in annual inflation rate was driven by higher prices of food in rural areas – rural food inflation increased to 12.76% in November 2018 from 12.70% in October
2018.

Hence, rise in food index persisted y-o-y to 13.30% (higher
than 13.28% in October) due to the flood and security challenges experienced in some parts of the country in the month of November.

Edo (+ 16.52%), Imo (+ 11.76%) and Beyelsa (+12.04%) recorded the fastest rise in food inflation while Oyo (+10.84%), Abia (+ 11.24%) and Kogi (+ 11.50%) recorded the slowest increase in food prices. However, core inflation rate declined on an annual basis to 9.79% (from 9.88% in October).

This was partly driven by y-o-y decrease in the costs of transport (-0.08%) and clothing & footwear (-0.01%) despite the y-o-y rise in energy cost (+0.06%). Also, m-o-m change in price level
for imported food moderated by 0.03% amid appreciation of the Naira against USD (FX rate fell to N360.66) at the interbank FX market as well as month-on-month decline in global commodity
prices such as palm oil (fell 8.56% to USD539.78/MT) and wheat (fell 4.65% to USD203.56/MT).

Outlook:
“We expect further upward pressure on general price level of goods and services as Presidential election campaigns intensify, along with the usual increase spending in Yuletide season”.

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Godwin Okafor is a Financial Journalist, Internet Social Entrepreneur and Founder of Naija247news Media Limited. He has over 16 years experience in financial journalism. His experience cuts across traditional and digital media. He started his journalism career at Business Day, Nigeria and founded Naija247news Media in 2010. Godwin holds a Bachelors degree in Industrial Relations and Personnel Management from the Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos. He is an alumni of Lagos Business School and a Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania (Wharton Seminar for Business Journalists). Over the years, he has won a number of journalism awards. Godwin is the chairman of Emmerich Resources Limited, the publisher of Naija247news.

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