Overview of GDP in Quarter Three 2017
The nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew in Q3 2017 by 1.40% (year-on-year) in real terms, the second consecutive positive growth since the emergence of the economy from recession in Q2 2017. This growth is 3.74% points higher than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016 ( –2.34%) and higher by 0.68% points from the rate recorded in the preceding quarter, which was revised to 0.72% from 0.55% (Q2 was revised following revisions by NNPC to oil output and hence led to revisions to Oil GDP) . Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 8.97%.
Year to date Real GDP growth stands at 0.43%
In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N29,451,303.99million in nominal terms higher when compared to N26,537,651.01 million in Q3 2016, resulting in a Nominal GDP growth of 10.98%.
This growth is higher relative to growth recorded in Q3 2016 of 9.15%. The broad classification into the oil and non-oil sectors will give a clearer depiction of the Nigerian economy.
The Oil Sector
In the period under review, Oil production is estimated to have averaged 2.03million barrels per day (mbpd), 0.15million barrels higher than the revised daily average production recorded in the second quarter of 2017 (revised from 1.84mbpd to 1.87mbpd). Oil production during the quarter was higher by 0.42million barrels per day relative to the corresponding quarter in 2016, which recorded an output of 1.61mbpd. (Figure2) Note that oil output for May and June 2017 has been revised; this affected average output for the second quarter 2017 from 1.84mbpd to 1.87mbpd.
Real growth of the oil sector was 25.89% (year-on-year) in Q3 2017. This represents an increase of 48.92% relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016. Growth also increased by 22.36% when compared to Q2 2017 which was revised from 1.64% to 3.53%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector grew by 21.10% in Q3 2017
As a share of the economy, the Oil sector contributed 10.04% of total real GDP in Q3 2017, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2016 and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.09% and 9.04% to GDP respectively.
Please note that the data for crude oil production for the second quarter of 2017 has been revised. This revision has also affected GDP figures for the same period.
The Non-Oil Sector
The non-oil sector grew by –0.76% in real terms during the reference quarter. This is lower by -0.79% point compared to the rate recorded same quarter, 2016 and -1.20% point lower than in the second quarter of 2017.(See Figure 3).
This sector was driven this quarter mainly by Agriculture (Crop), Other services and Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 89.96% to the nation’s GDP, lower than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2016 (91.91%) and in the second quarter of 2017 (90.96%).
Figure 3: Crude Oil and Non-Oil Growth