WEEKAHEAD-AFRICA-FX: Nigeria’s Naira seen Appreciate against the Dollar, Kenyan shilling to strengthen

nigeria-naira-notesThe Nigerian naira is expected to appreciate against the dollar on the parallel market next week as International Money transfer agencies increase dollar supply to bureau de change operators in line with a central bank directive.

The naira was trading around 458 to the dollar on the black market on Thursday, firmer than 473 a dollar last week. The local currency was quoted at 314.50 a dollar on the official interbank window at 1121 GMT and it has consistently closed around 305 to the dollar in the last four weeks.

“About 1,700 bureaux de change are currently accessing $15,000 each from Travelex every week and we expect the improved dollar liquidity in the market to have positive impact on the value of the naira,” Aminu Gwadabe the head of Nigeria’s bureaux de change association, told Reuters.


The Tanzanian shilling is forecast to remain stable next week with a slowdown in demand for U.S. dollars from importers.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,178/2,188 to the dollar on Thursday, unchanged from a week ago.

“There isn’t much activity in the market. The shilling will likely remain at the same levels next week,” said Nyanjula Seleman, a dealer at Commercial Bank of Africa Tanzania.


The Kenyan shilling is expected to find support from foreign exchange inflows from institutional investors buying government securities, traders said.

At 0905 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 101.20/40 to the dollar, the same as last Thursday’s close.

“There are capital flows coming into the market and I see that supporting the shilling,” said a trader from a commercial bank.


The kwacha may come under pressure next week due to reduced supply of dollars after companies finish paying taxes on Oct 14.

At 1214 GMT, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa’s second-largest copper producer at 9.9500 per dollar from 9.8900 a week ago.

“After the tax payment deadline, we could see a reduction in (dollar) supply and consequently take the rate higher,” the local branch of South Africa’s First National Bank (FNB) said in a note.


The Ugandan shilling is forecast to weaken over the next one week, sapped by surging appetite from offshore investors cutting positions in government debt and banks taking advantage of excess local currency liquidity.

At 2201 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,435/3,445, weaker than last Thursday’s close of 3,400/3,410.

“There’s quite a lot of liquidity in the interbank and I think players will be taking advantage of that to build positions,” said a trader at one commercial bank who added some offshore investors will also likely be offloading some debt after a fall in debt yields at recent auctions.


The Ghana cedi is expected to maintain its stability against the dollar in the week ahead and news of higher than expected inflation will take time to filter through to the foreign exchange market, traders said on Thursday.

The cedisstood at 3.9600 against the dollar at 1250 GMT on Thursday, according to Thomson Reuters data, and was unlikely to cross the threshold of 4.0, said Sampson Akligoh, managing director of InvestCorp investment bank in Accra.

Ghana’s central bank has set a mid-term target for inflation of 8 percent by mid-2017 but inflation rose to 17.2 percent in September, from 16.9 percent in August, the statistical service said on Wednesday.

“The major surprise to the market is inflation. Inflation takes time to work through the trade side …. Higher import taxes in particular and the sluggish growth is making it a bit more comfortable for the cedi to be stable,” Akligoh said.

Joseph Amponsah of Dortis Research in Accra said the cedi would extend its stability in the week ahead to trade within the 3.9650 -3.9750 band to a dollar as the market is well-supplied with dollars from corporates. (Reporting by Edmund Blair, Chris Mfula, Elias Biryabarema, Oludare Mayowa, Matthew Mpoke Bigg; Compiled by Nqobile Dludla; Editing by Keith Weir)


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