Nigeria’s government says its economy could still expand this year because of a bumper rice harvest, even as the International Monetary Fund forecast the first contraction in more than two decades.

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Gross domestic product will probably expand by 0.35 percent from 2.8 percent in 2015, according to e-mailed documents from the Ministry of Budget and National Planning. That contrasts with the IMF’s forecast on Tuesday that the economy will shrink by 1.7 percent, the first full-year contraction since 1991.

“We expect a very good harvest of rice this year,” the Budget and National Planning Ministry’s spokesman James Akpandem said by phone from Nigeria’s capital, Abuja. “That will reduce food imports and ease pressure on foreign exchange and inflation. This increased agricultural production and its benefits will help in boosting economic growth.”

The budget office also sees expansion of 3.02 percent in 2017 even as the IMF cut its forecast to 0.6 percent from 1.1 percent previously.