2015: Tambuwal to declare next week?

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Tambuwal-MutawallenAminu Waziri Tambuwal, Speaker, House of Representatives, is in the eye on the storm. The newly turbaned Matawallen Sokoto is torn between two decisions: contesting the governorship election in Sokoto or joining the already heated fray to vie for the nation’s number one top job.

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Whereas Tambuwal is more favourably inclined for the Sokoto Government House job especially as he has a strong ally in the present occupant of the office, Gov. Aliyu Wamakko, who, many say, is favourably disposed to him and, in fact, willing to transverse oceans to install him as his successor, political exigencies in the All Progressives Congress (APC), the North and the growing discontent in the country, all conspired to make the Speaker an inevitable political bride for the 2015 presidential election.

In the APC, in particular, Tambuwal is seen largely as a cogent choice with more than superficial clout to  assist the opposition party’s quest to wrest power from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Although there are a motley of aspirants including some considerable heavy weights and political titans within the APC with massive wealth, assumed intimidating political connections and moral persuasions, he is seen, even by die-hard members of the left wing opposition party, as a stabilizer of some sort: someone with little political dent and therefore, a more genial saleable candidate across the length and breadth of the country.

 

But wait a minute, isn’t Tambuwal a card carrying member of the ruling PDP, on whose platform he got elected to the House of Representatives and eventually emerged as the Speaker against all odds? Yes, that is true and official. However, everyone with half a logical political insight, in fact, even one with a pedestrian knowledge of the political situation in the country knows that the Speaker is unofficially a bonafide ‘member’ of the APC. No, he is not known officially to be a card carrying member of the party that is desperately yearning to grab power or that desires that the number one office in the country returns to the North in 2015.

Nonetheless, Tambuwal’s comportment since the advent of the nPDP and its eventual coalition with major opposition parties to form the APC, countenance, political utterances, official and social associations and interactions and ultimately his body language, all clearly give him out as a strong sympathiser of the APC, one with deft intentions.  The Speaker has been tactful but not taciturn in his identification with and participation in the activities of the APC.

Few instances of such fraternity will suffice. He chastised the federal government when the issue of the emergency rule came on and had little or no room for innuendoes when dismissing President Jonathan’s lame duck approach and attitude to routing the insurgency spearheaded by the Boko Haram sect. That comment apparently was at par with that made by the APC and many interpreted it to mean the voice of Jacob but the hand of Esau.

He demonstrated his disdain for the state of emergency by ensuring that the governors of the three North East states were not defrocked of their powers. That had been the intention of the president, who had informed the leadership of the National Assembly that he intended to remove the governors and silence their respective state assemblies. Deploying his legal knowledge, he spurned party loyalty and retorted that the constitution gives the president no such powers.

To the admiration of the APC, he subsequently led the House to expunge a provision in the state of emergency proclamation that allows the president full control of the finance accruable to the three states for security operations during the period.

Last December at the Nigeria Bar Association’s function, he accused the federal government of doing little about corruption in the country. In fact, he said President Jonathan’s body language encourages corruption.

“The Executive, by constituting committees to investigate what ordinarily would have been investigated by the EFCC, the ICPC (Independent Corrupt Practices and other-related offences commission) and the Code of Conduct Bureau, is engaged in a duplication of effort. We (the National Assembly) do our own; we have been mandated by the 1999 Constitution to do it. They (the anti-corruption agencies) have been established by law to do what they do.

“The Executive has no business in establishing their own. They (the Executive) should just refer corruption issues, if they mean business, to the EFCC. Let the Executive have the will of referring these matters, from the office of Mr. President to the EFCC and see what will happen. By the action of setting up different committees for straight forward cases, the president’s body language doesn’t tend to support the fight against corruption.”

That was a weighty comment and coming from the Speaker must have rattled the presidency in no small way.

It is obvious the Speaker has stopped attending functions organised by the PDP. Only recently while the PDP NEC (by virtue of being Speaker is a member) members were putting heads together to decide on their presidential flag bearer for 2015, Tambuwal chose to shun the gathering, instead he received the newly elected leadership of the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) and again used the occasion to ruffle a few more feathers.  There, he berated the federal government’s planned shift of the date for the 2015 elections on account of lingering insurgency.

“I firmly believe we can go into election. The problem now is that governance is suffering at various levels as many elected public office holders are already in politicking mood. You have to blow the whistle that people are running foul of the law,” he said as a matter of fact.

“We want to ensure we play by the rules, we play by the dictates of the constitution and not by the dictates of our heads. We must fight insecurity, corruption and others vices which are the major challenges and are dragging our country down,” he stated, noting that the fight must be holistic and all-embracing.

Further, he lamented the suffering of majority of Nigerians, even as he said the leadership at various levels were less concerned with the aspirations of the masses. “We have had rough times but I don’t think we have ever had it so rough,” he said.

“Some are politicking while governance is suffering. We should address insecurity and corruption before election. If vigilante groups can repel insurgents, our soldiers should be encouraged to do the same. The NBA must not be lame dogs, must not shy away from blowing the whistle,” he said.

That of course was anything but complimentary to the ruling PDP government and considering the occasion and the institution before which he opted to berate Jonathan’s government, then one appreciates his distance from the PDP.

He is always in league with his colleagues from the South West. He attends their functions, fraternises with the APC in that region and seems to enjoy tremendous rapport with key political elements in that region across board.

In turn, political bigwigs of the opposition APC have not held back from demonstrating their support for him. They have always responded in his defence whenever his seething comments against the presidency or his party, the PDP, fetch him reprisal verbal outbursts.

Returning to the main issue: his impending decision, most definitely between now and October ending, which is either for a shot at Aso Villa in that case contending against the return of Goodluck Jonathan for a second term or succeed Aliyu Wamakko at the Sokoto Government House.

Already, Tambuwal has been consulting. “I am still consulting with my primary constituency on these crucial matters which affect me, Sokoto State and Nigeria generally. I will come back and engage my people. All politics is local.”

A smart politician that he is, the Speaker has been consulting and indeed hobnobbing with key members of the APC. He sought the blessings of former Heads of State and civilian presidents: Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo.  He has held several meetings with like minds from the South West, North Central, North East and South East.

Last weekend, he congregated the who-is-who in Nigeria for his turbaning ceremony.

You could have been forgiven if you thought that it was an APC rally. Albeit a traditional ceremony where honour was bestowed on him by an appreciative people, what would you make of the presence of chieftains of the APC including Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, Chief Bisi Akande, Governor Rotimi Amaechi, Governor Aliyu Wamakko, Governor Rauf Aregbesola, former governors Ahmed Sani, Bukola Saraki and Abdullahi Adamu, Abubakar Kawu Baraje and Chief Audu Ogbeh, among the most prominent personalities present?

Conspicuously missing though were the leadership of the PDP- his supposed party, President Jonathan, who was to be the Special Guest, and other dignitaries from the ruling party at his turbaning as the new Matawallen Sokoto.  Sure, the bigwigs of the opposition APC couldn’t have congregated with him if they fear it won’t amount to electoral value. The dominant presence of the APC leadership had further fueled speculations that the Speaker would formally defect to the party.

Penultimate Thursday, news had filtered into the NASS chambers that the Speaker, who is yet to preside after the inauguration of the House for the final lap of the seventh session, an honour Emeka Ihedioha seems to covert, was to make a major decision at the turbaning ceremony. Though clearly unlike him to use the vintage traditional ceremony to indulge in a political fancy no matter the essence of such act, several lawmakers were convinced that he was ready to dump the PDP at last.  Certainly, the conversion of the turbaning ceremony to an APC carnival was proof enough that the moment had arrived. But it was not to be.  Instead, Tambuwal, along with his close political allies, opted to travel to Saudi Arabia first to commune with God and then further strengthen the core points of previous consultations.

A close associate of the Speaker, who confided in Peoples Daily Weekend reveals, “The Speaker is in Saudi Arabia already. You know taking a step as important as deciding to contest for the position of the president of a country is no ordinary decision. Besides, as a Muslim, he believes power belongs to God who gives to whoever he so wishes. The first thing is to seek the face of God in a spiritually convenient and conducive environment.

“The Speaker has scheduled a number of high profile meetings with representatives of former top brass of both the military and bureaucrats in respect of his impending decision central to the 2015 general elections. We hope that soon after Hajj, he will make some crucial statements. He will either declare for the gubernatorial race or take a shot at the presidency,” the source who has reasonable information on the speaker’s itinerary said.

Should Tambuwal decide in favour of contesting for the presidency, then he would have to contend with three giants in the contest for the APC’s presidential ticket; General Muhammadu Buhari, the retired general who has contested every presidential election since 2003 and is therefore no green horn in the arduous task of seeking across board mandate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is said to be stupendously wealthy and commands reasonable followership across the length and breadth of the country, while the likes of Governors Rabi’u Kwankwaso, Rochas Okorocha, Adams Oshomhole, probably less in wealth, clout and huge following, are rumoured to be keenly interested in the race.

Governor Babatunde Fashola is also in the picture but not in the mainstream presidential race, but a vice to whoever emerges the APC candidate. Timipre Sylva, Oshiomhole and Chris Ngige are equally in the fray for the vice presidency. Ngige is being lured by Kwankwaso, while Fashola may be Buhari’s deputy. However, like one columnist said early in the week Buhari, Atiku, Kwankwaso and Okorocha have considerable and noticeable political drawbacks, enough to soil their seeming strength.

That is where Tambuwal’s relevance becomes not only noticeable but inevitable. Unlike his predecessors on the seat of the Speakership, the Sokoto-born legal practitioner is almost without damaging financial dent, something that had been the bane of some past Speakers.

However, picking the APC ticket will be anything but a stroll in the park, in fact, it will be a herculean task.

Tambuwal’s presidential obstacles

Atiku Abubakar

On September 24, the former vice president under Olusegun Obasanjo’s civilian presidency formally declared to contest the 2015 presidential election under the platform of the APC: “I want to lead a government that will invest in its people because people constitute the wealth of any nation. I want to lead a government that will create “A Nigeria for All”. A Nigeria that is not about North or South, Christian or Muslim, but about a better tomorrow where every citizen will feel secure, act with patriotism, having assurance of the fulfilment of his or her aspirations,” Abubakar told his cheering supporters at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre.

“I want to lead a government that will rebuild the institutions of governance with zero tolerance for corruption and nepotism, where hard work and dedication are adequately rewarded. I want to assemble the best brains in the land and provide the political will and commitment so that jointly, and with the cooperation of all of you, build a Nigeria of our dreams.”

Atiku had contested the presidency in 2007 under the Action Congress, failed to secure the ticket in 2011, but had hitherto sought to lead the country in 1987 when he became politically active.

True, Atiku has massive wealth, is highly connected, politically versatile and commands reasonable political clout. However, feelers from Tambuwal’s camp show that the Turaki Adamawa is of lesser concern to them. They are quick to point to his many drawbacks which they believe are significant dents which will always haunt him.

“No, Atiku cannot be trusted. He is desperate to be president and has therefore made himself a political prostitute. Though most politicians are, but Atiku is notorious for jumping ship at the slightest indication that his ambition will not be met.

“We see Atiku’s declaration as a joke. Even the PDP doesn’t take him seriously. He can, of course, bark but lacks the bite on account of his inconsistency and disloyalty. These seemingly little things hurt and will continue to haunt him because he can’t be trusted to stand by the people and defend them in the face of conflict,” a close political associate of Tambuwal in the National Assembly said.

The Kwankwaso and Rochas Okorocha factor

Ever since Governor Musa Kwankwaso gave indications of his intention to throw his hat into the ring for the February 2015 presidential election, his supporters mostly Kano-based have left no stone unturned to test the waters about his likely acceptance. Only last week, he sent delegates to Sen. Chris Ngige, while he works on the finer details of his formal declaration of intent.

Nonetheless, whether the governor eventually joins the race or not, associates of the Speaker do not see any hedge in Kwankwaso. Rather they consider him a feather weight, local champion whose support-base is bereft of the national spread necessary to forge a national acceptance to win votes from across the geo-political divides.

“We don’t even bother about Malam. He is a local champion. Being president goes beyond being popular in Kano. We know it will be difficult for him to scale the primaries, especially where the weight of Buhari and Atiku are placed concurrently with his own.”

“As for the Imo State governor, if truth be told, he is even less popular in Imo. He is a showman and always a business man, and therefore less of a politician that should be taken seriously. Okorocha constantly seeks relevance, lacks sufficient clout to be taken seriously for such an important job. And painfully, the APC will hardly consider an Igboman for president now because the unspoken truth is that we want power to return to the North,” an influential aide to Tambuwal said on ‘phone on Thursday.

The Buhari obstacle

The coast seems clear except where Gen. Buhari is introduced. The General, who like Atiku has been in the race since 2003, has again indicated interest in returning to the Villa.

“With your support, I intend to offer myself for the position of the president on the platform of our great party,” Buhari told his supporters under the aegis of Buhari Support Groups, BSG.

“I intend to make a formal announcement soon (October 8), and I hope I can count on your continuing support and sacrifice. I will like to point out to you that, to be more meaningful, your support must extend beyond my person and always be available to the party and all those the party puts forward; because it is the party that is the platform.”

This declaration sent shivers down the spine of Tambuwal‘s camp. According to key members of the group, it is only Buhari’s declaration that will put paid to the number three citizen’s presidential ambition.

“The Speaker is wary of standing against Buhari. His influence is tremendous, his mammoth followership excruciating and indeed suicidal for any northern politician to stand against him. The person will simply be crushed.

“Recall what led to the political demise of Malam Ibrahim Shekarau? Yes, he contested against Buhari and inspite of popularity and across the board acceptance that singular act marked the end of his hitherto blossoming political career,” a top member of the Tambuwal camp disclosed.

According to the camp, Tambuwal will gladly put his name for consideration as the flag bearer of the APC if he gets Buhari’s endorsement.  “Unless Gen. Buhari agrees to go with Tambuwal and before the massive crowd lifts the hands of the Speaker as his endorsed candidate for the APC presidential race, I don’t see my principal standing against Buhari in the presidential race. That will be suicidal and we don’t think we are willing to take such risk,” he said, stressing that the Speaker will consider the more obvious alternative should Buhari insist on contesting in 2015.

That does it. Buhari has already indicated that he will vie for the APC ticket at the primaries next month. He, while consulting with party faithful from the South West in Ekiti, disclosed October 8  as the date fixed for his formal declaration of intent for the 2015 APC ticket.

“Tambuwal has tremendous support from the North West, he can count on the considerable followership from the South West and he has made reasonable in-road in the South East and North Central and therefore could translate to winsome political capital for the APC. We know our strength but not where Buhari is involved because of moral character and unblemished record in service,” another senior associate of the Speaker said midweek.

The alternative though is taking advantage of the mood of Sokoto State which is all set to have him take over the Government House. “We have the more likely option of declaring for the Sokoto Government House. Wamakko will see about that because he has been an ardent admirer of Tambuwal and would certainly want the Speaker to succeed him in office.

“We expect that once the Speaker returns from Hajj he will formally declare not only his political future with the PDP but will take a stand on either to contest the presidential election or go for the gubernatorial job. But if you ask me, I think the governorship is on a platter of gold, securing the ticket will be less demanding than surmounting the Kilimajaro that contesting against Buhari will amount to,” he concluded.

 

Babatunde Akinsola
Babatunde Akinsolahttps://naija247news.com
Babatunde Akinsola is aNaija247news' Southwest editor. He's based in Lagos and writes on the Yoruba Nation political issues, news and investigative reports

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